The thing about trying to identify weaknesses in a team that has lost ten games is that there are usually lots of small ones that pop up seemingly at random. For example, the last time these two teams played, the Patriots won.
But New England conceded twice as many penalties as the Jets, and neither team gave the ball away. Matt Judon was playing back in Week 3, though, so the Patriots did get to the quarterback more than the Jets did. And that seems like an excellent place to start.
Key #1: Bring the pressure to the quarterback
There are two parts to this: first up and stop the run. In Week 3, the Jets only managed 38 rushing yards on 22 attempts. That caused Zach Wilson to attempt 36 passes; that was the most he had thrown up to that point of the season. The following week, he threw 39 against the Chiefs. And the Jets lost that game, too.
But like so many other things in the AFC East this season, the Jets' quarterback situation has been a revolving door. Zach Wilson took over from Aaron Rodgers, and then Tim Boyle took over from Zach Wilson. And then Zach Wilson was shunted back into the starting role, then Wilson received a concussion so now it appears Trevor Siemian will start his third game of the season.
The offensive line is the key to getting pressure on the quarterback. Mekhi Beckton is still at left tackle for Gang Green, and he’s allowed 12 sacks this season. That’s tied for first in the league. And the 18 penalties he’s been flagged for are the second most in the league.
No Matt Judon is always a problem for the Patriots, and Keion White hasn’t stepped up as he should have in Judon’s absence. But Christian Barmore also recorded a sack back in Week 3. And he has stepped up recently. He’s recorded 4.5 sacks in his last four games, including three against the Broncos. If the Patriots line Barmore up against Beckton, he should be able to rush the passer consistently.
Christian Barmore and Anfernee Jennings get to Wilson for the sack! #Patriots pic.twitter.com/vzXH005HV7
— Video from: @TSV__1 (@TSV__1) September 24, 2023
Key #2: Get Mike Gesicki involved in the offense early and often
The Patriots offense has been so erratic in 2023 that it’s difficult to find any trends. But Gesicki has caught passes in 3 of the four wins this season. In the win in Denver, he caught 2. Gesicki caught touchdown passes in the wins over the Broncos and last time out against the Jets, too.
Only the Broncos have conceded more touchdowns to tight ends than the Jets. Gesicki, Henry, and Brown could all feature heavily this week.
Oddly, Bill O’Brien hasn’t seen fit to use a receiver with such a big catch radius, especially as the tallest wide receivers have all struggled to stay healthy. But here we are.
Mac Jones throws a TD to Mike Gesicki and the #Patriots have taken the lead over the #Bills with 12 seconds remaining.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 22, 2023
Griddy for everyone! Holy. Cow.pic.twitter.com/EegXdtlgVQ
Key #3: Don't let Breece Hall win the game for the Jets
Anyone who has seen Breece Hall play football will tell you it’s impossible to stop him. He’s racked up 1,395 yards from scrimmage so far this season; that’s 32.4% of the Jets' yards on offense. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per touch.
But it is possible to stop him from scoring. The Jets have been only slightly better at scoring than the Patriots. The Jets average 15.7 points per game compared to New England’s 14.6!
Hall has scored 66.6% of the Jets' rushing touchdowns this season, and while Israel Abanikanda has recently become a more significant part of the offense, he hasn’t scored a TD yet. And Hall has scored 36.4% of the Jets receiving touchdowns this season.
The only game the Jets have won when Hall didn’t score a touchdown was the wild Week 1 game against the Bills. Hall was still coming back from his knee injury then and only played 31% of the snaps.
Garrett Wilson was the only player on the Jets offense who scored points in that game. Greg Zuerlein kicked three field goals, and Xavier Gibson scored a walk-off punt return in overtime.