Patriots vs. Bills prediction, odds, spread, injuries, trends for NFL Week 17

Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90)
Dec 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots season may be effectively over, but that doesn't mean they've stopped putting up a fight. They're coming off an impressive upset win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday night and now head to Buffalo to see if they can complete the series sweep against the Bills.

They beat the Bills by a score of 29-25 back in Week 7 and now can play spoilers on the Bills' hopes of winning the division.

If you want to find out my best bet for all 16 NFL Week 17 games, check out this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets".

In this article, I'm going to break down everything you need to know to bet on this weekend's AFC East showdown.

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Patriots vs. Bills odds, spread, and total

Patriots vs. Bills betting trends

  • Patriots are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games
  • Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. Bills
  • Patriots are 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games
  • Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams
  • Bills are 2-6 ATS in the last eight games they've been set as the favorites

Patriots vs. Bills injury reports

New England Patriots injury report

  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. - OT - IR-R
  • Rhamondre Stevenson - RB - Questionable
  • Matthew Slater - WR - Questionable
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR - Questionable
  • Jabrill Peppers - S - Questionable

Buffalo Bills injury report

  • Micah Hyde - S - Questionable
  • Ty Johnson - RB - Questionable
  • AJ Epenesa - DE - Questionable

Patriots vs. Bills how to watch

  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 31
  • Game Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS
  • New England Patriots Record: 4-11
  • Buffalo Bills Record: 9-6

Patriots vs. Bills key players to watch

New England Patriots

Demario Douglas: The Patriots wide receiver has established himself as the best offensive weapon for the team and he's coming off a performance where he hauled in five receptions for 74 yards against the Broncos. He's their best chance in keeping pace with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: The Bills' success starts and ends with their quarterback. He continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL but turnovers have become an issue for him this season. He threw a pivotal interceptions against the Patriots in their earlier meeting so he'll need to avoid that if he wants to get his revenge.

Patriots vs. Bills prediction and pick

I truly don't think New England is as bad as its record indicates. It's a big reason why I correctly bet them to upset the Broncos in Week 16 and it's why I think this spread against the Bills is out of hand.

Entering Week 17, the Patriots are 17th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.1) and 11th in Net Yards per Play over their last 11 games. Their run defense specifically is objectively the best in the NFL, leading the league in opponent yards per carry, opponent rush EPA, and opponent success rate.

That's not the makeup of a team that should be a double-digit underdog to the Bills, who constantly play down to their competition. We should also note the Patriots are eighth in third-down defense and seventh in red zone defense, which is going to make it tough for the Bills to cover a spread this big.

Not only did the Patriots beat them in their meeting earlier this season, but they gained 6.6 yards per play compared to just 5.1 yards per play by the Bills.

All of that is enough for me to back Patriots to cover in this AFC East showdown.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!