The New England Patriots are going through their worst season since the earth began to cool. OK, that's not really the case, but after more than two decades of being great and a few seasons of being mediocre, this season is just a wreck. Blame management, injuries, or lack of good quarterback play; the point is there are a bunch of issues to fix.
The positive part is that the Patriots are set up well in terms of cap space in 2024, as New England currently has about $75 million to spend, the third-most in the NFL. New England obviously does not have a quarterback on the roster that will demand a high-dollar contract in a few years, either.
Say what you will about Mac Jones, but even if he improves a little, he isn't going to get paid $30-40 million in 2027.
Since the season has spiraled downward as well, New England is going to have a high draft pick (for our intent here, I used New England's current record, which would make them choose second in the 2024 NFL Draft) in the first round, plus picks high in each round thereafter.
For the mock draft, I used Pro Football Network's excellent mock draft simulator, which does offer trades, though I did not take any offered. So what will Bill Belichick and his friends do in the 2024 draft? Here are some guesses.
First-round, pick No. 2 overall - Patriots take quarterback Caleb Williams
Do I think Caleb Williams doesn't go number 1 overall? No. But Pro Football Network's simulator had North Carolina's Drake Maye going first, so I chose Williams.
If the Patriots land either Williams or Maye, they would be a winner. Maye is a bit more inconsistent than Williams, but both quarterbacks have electric arms and can throw on the run (which is, unfortunately, a must with the Patriots as bad as the offensive line has been).
USC wasn't as good in 2023 as in 2022, but that was not Williams' fault. The Trojans defense was just awful late in the year. While Williams's overall numbers are not as good as last year, he still completed 68.6 percent of his passes and had 30 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. Williams could very well if the Patriots spend their money wisely in free agency and add a good wide receiver or two (hello, Tee Higgins!), have the kind of year that CJ Stroud is currently having for the Houston Texans.
The biggest key with Williams, and something that should transition to the NFL, is he simply doesn't create turnovers. In 1,099 pass attempts in college, he had just 14 interceptions. He might be ready to throw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns as a rookie, but he also isn't going to be the reason the team loses.
Williams will very likely be the reason the Patriots steal a game or three in 2024.
Second and third rounds
Whether through injury or simply lousy play, the Patriots' right offensive tackles have been a mess this year. The problem is that there is no evidence to think they will be much better in 2024 if the current roster stays the same. New England needs to get young, stable talent at the position to help protect its highly skilled new quarterback.
Plus, left tackle Trent Brown, who is graded by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the third-best OT in the NFL in 2023, isn't signed past this season.
BYU product Suamataia should step in as an immediate starter, however, whether that is the left side or right. He will likely be better in pass protection to begin his career while he adds some weight, but his long arms and good balance will allow him to cheat a bit. By 2025, the 6'6" and 280-pound Suamataia could be a Pro Bowl quality starter.
Currently gone are the days when the Patriots had multiple tight ends who were really good. Heck, New England might settle for just one tight end with half the skill of Rob Gronkowski. Hunter Henry has just three touchdown receptions in 2023 and averages just 9.8 yards a reception. Mike Gesicki has been a disappointment.
And sure, some of the issues with the tight ends might be quarterback-related (the Patriots do not exactly have a Tom Brady to Gronkowski connection going on right now), but many of the issues might simply be the overrated skills of the 2023 tight ends.
This is where University of Texas' Ja'Tavion Sanders comes in. He is 6'4" and 260 pounds and can catch, run, and block really well, too. This year, Sanders averaged 15.6 yards per catch. Williams to Sanders might just be the next Brady to Gronkowski in New England.
Fourth and fifth rounds
The Patriots' cornerbacks in 2023 have just been gross. If the Patriots keep the current group in 2024, next year will also be horrid. The Patriots need speed and versatility at the position. They have neither currently. While Jonathan Jones is graded as the 33rd-best corner in the league, per PFF, after that, the next best corner on the Patriots is Shaun Wade at number 72.
Again, that's gross.
While Javon Bullard will not be among the first cornerbacks off the board during the 2024 NFL draft, he does a lot of things well. Though he is 5'11" and 180 pounds, he can hit and hit hard and was taught how to tackle well at Georgia. He also can play nickel or outside, so he is a three-down corner. New England has to start somewhere with getting better at corner, and Bullard is an excellent place to begin.
Another player, like Williams at pick 2 that I do not think will be around when the mock simulator has them being available, is Corum. The Michigan stand-out is good at many things but great at nothing, but that does not mean he isn't a perfect running back for the Patriots. He is shifty and slithery and creates yards that aren't always there from when he gets the handoff.
Corum does need to work on catching the ball better, and he is a bit short - just 5'8" - so how well he does in pass protection is anyone's guess. Still, he knows how to play in the cold and should fit right in with New England.
Sixth and seventh rounds
Alexander has several good qualities. One is that he played at LSU, which, of course, is in the SEC, which is the closest thing the NFL has to a minor league system. Alexander will have been matched up against future NFL receivers. He also has good size at 6'2" and 190 pounds and can tackle in space.
Yurosek is a classic Stanford receiver, and he has NFL size. He is 6'4" and 245 pounds and knows how to block, which could help the Patriots fairly quickly on obvious passing downs. While not overly quick, Yurosek does have decent straight-ahead speed and should run a 40 in the 4.6 range. He also has pretty good hands and very likely will be a better NFL tight end than he was a college tight end.
Young is a huge receiver at 6'5" with good speed and doesn't mind hitting people once he has the ball. The issue is that he has inconsistent hands. But if he gets the proper coaching, he could be one of the biggest sleepers in the 2024 NFL draft. The Miami product should also be an excellent red zone target for Caleb Williams (or whoever the Patriots get as QB1 for 2024).