Previously, I ranked the receiving and pass coverage groups in the AFC East and now I’ll examine the running game, which includes both blockers and rushers, for each team.
To estimate the strength of the running game for each AFC East team in 2023, I looked at team depth charts and draftees and chose who I believe will be each team’s top five offensive linemen, top tight end, and top two rushers. Typically, I decided the top RBs as the rushers, but for the Bills, I chose the QB as I expect Josh Allen to be more of a factor in the running game than Damien Harris or Latavius Murray.
The data used in the table below are derived from Pro Football Focus player grades for each player in the years 2022 and 2021. I used run-blocking grades for offensive linemen and tight ends and rushing grades for the running backs (or QB if that player was chosen). I used the data from his NCAA time if the player was in college in one or both years.
Like my previous analysis of the receiving and coverage groups, the idea in this table was to use the last two years of play to provide a more accurate sample. Like fans and fantasy players looking forward to the 2023 season, I’m more interested in projecting what these coverage groups are capable of in 2023 than they did in the past.
Team | Player Name | 2021 Grade | 2022 Grade | Two-year Avg. Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | Trent Brown | 76.10 | 78.20 | 77.14 |
New England | Cole Strange | 43.80 | 86.90 | 67.60 |
New England | David Andrews | 76.90 | 80.10 | 78.50 |
New England | Mike Onwenu | 73.10 | 89.40 | 81.25 |
New England | Riley Reiff | 59.10 | 70.00 | 64.55 |
New England | Hunter Henry | 48.30 | 60.10 | 54.20 |
New England | Rhamondre Stevenson | 84.30 | 81.40 | 82.85 |
New England | Pierre Strong | 83.80 | 90.80 | 87.30 |
Team Average | 68.74 | 79.61 | 74.18 | |
New York Jets | Duane Brown | 44.40 | 69.60 | 57.00 |
New York Jets | Laken Tomlinson | 46.90 | 75.30 | 61.10 |
New York Jets | Joe Tippmann | 78.70 | 85.10 | 81.90 |
New York Jets | Alijah Vera-Tucker | 76.50 | 72.50 | 74.50 |
New York Jets | Mekhi Becton | 78.70 | 73.90 | 76.30 |
New York Jets | Tyler Conklin | 51.10 | 54.70 | 52.90 |
New York Jets | Breece Hall | 76.40 | 87.00 | 81.70 |
New York Jets | Israel Abanikanda | 90.60 | 87.20 | 88.90 |
Team Average | 68.35 | 77.75 | 73.05 | |
Buffalo Bills | Dion Dawkins | 60.90 | 69.20 | 65.05 |
Buffalo Bills | O'Cyrus Torrence | 89.90 | 89.40 | 89.65 |
Buffalo Bills | Mitch Morse | 56.00 | 58.80 | 57.40 |
Buffalo Bills | Connor McGovern | 43.10 | 65.30 | 54.20 |
Buffalo Bills | Spencer Brown | 56.20 | 71.60 | 63.90 |
Buffalo Bills | Dawson Knox | 65.90 | 56.50 | 61.20 |
Buffalo Bills | James Cook | 76.80 | 83.20 | 80.00 |
Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 92.80 | 93.60 | 93.20 |
Team Average | 68.14 | 76.38 | 72.26 | |
Miami Dolphins | Terron Amstead | 68.90 | 64.10 | 66.50 |
Miami Dolphins | Isaiah Wynn | 63.20 | 76.50 | 69.85 |
Miami Dolphins | Liam Echenberg | 42.50 | 57.90 | 50.20 |
Miami Dolphins | Robert Hunt | 74.50 | 65.60 | 70.05 |
Miami Dolphins | Connor Williams | 85.60 | 76.90 | 81.25 |
Miami Dolphins | Durham Smythe | 64.20 | 50.70 | 57.45 |
Miami Dolphins | Raheem Mostert | 80.70 | 58.90 | 69.80 |
Miami Dolphins | Devon Achane | 89.80 | 91.00 | 90.40 |
Team Average | 68.88 | 74.27 | 71.58 |
The results show the rushing groups finished in the following order:
(1) New England Patriots – 74.18 team average; (2) New York Jets – 73.05 team average; (3) Buffalo Bills – 72.26 team average; and (4) Miami Dolphins – 71.58 team average. To provide some context, in the NFL in 2022, the Bills finished 9th in total rushing yards, the New England Patriots 23rd in total rushing yards, and the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins tied for 25th in total rushing yards.
Although the results tell us the overall strength of each team's run-blocking units and rushers, they don’t necessarily tell us which team will have the most rushing yards in 2023. It’s important to consider other factors, such as the influence of a successful passing game on the running attack. Buffalo’s successful passing attack, 8th in total passing yards in the NFL, undoubtedly helped its rushing attack as well. Teams cannot load up to stop your running game if they fear the pass.
Just as the Bills benefited from its strong passing attack and the inherent difficulties in containing Josh Allen, the rushing attacks of the Patriots and Jets in 2022 were also likely hurt by their mediocre passing games. However, suppose the Patriots, under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, and the Jets, with the addition of Aaron Rodgers, can substantially improve their passing attacks in 2023. In that case, their overall rushing success should improve as well.
The strengths, weaknesses, and X-factor for each team’s rushing group are:
No. 1: New England Patriots
Strength: The New England offensive line is the best overall run-blocking line in the AFC East. David Andrews, Mike Owenu, and Trent Brown are all excellent run blockers. The addition of Sidy Sow (guard/tackle), Atonio Mafi (guard), and Jake Andrews (center/guard) through the draft provides quality backup options for this group.
Weakness: Cole Strange. Neither Strange’s run-blocking grades nor his pass-blocking grades (67.8) in 2022 made the case for using a 1st-round pick on him. Strange did, however, show signs of improvement in the last two games of the season, with overall offensive grades of 66.3 and 75.5 against Miami and Buffalo, respectively. Strange is a very hard worker and Pats’ fans can hope that his late-season improvement will carry over into 2023.
X-Factor: Pierre Strong. The Patriots are often reluctant to give much playing time to rookie running backs. Recall, for example, that Super Bowl LI hero James White only played in 3 games during his rookie season in 2014. With the departure of Damien Harris, the Patriots will need to use the speedy Strong much more frequently in 2023 than in 2022.
No. 2: New York Jets
Strength: Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mekhi Becton both had strong years in 2022, with run-blocking grades of 76.5 and 78.7, respectively. The addition through the draft of Wisconsin’s Joe Tippmann, who was very consistent as both a run blocker (78.3 grade) and pass blocker (79.2 grade) for the Badgers, should solidify the interior of the offensive line. Eric Edholm of NFL.com called Tippmann a “quality pivot whose mental capacities should stand any tests from Aaron Rodgers.”
Weakness: Brown and Tomlinson on the left side of the O-line are both sub-par run blockers. The Jets still need an upgrade here.
X-Factor: Israel Abanikanda. The Jets have no qualms about giving significant minutes to rookies--see their offensive (Garrett Wilson) and defensive (Sauce Gardner) rookies of the year in 2022. So look for the rookie Abanikanda to play a significant role in the Jets' offense in 2023. The Athletic called Abanikanda:
"…an exciting, explosive, home-run hitting weapon who should contribute right away — and likely even push Carter and Knight to be the No. 2 back."Zach Rosenblatt, The Athletic
No. 3: Buffalo Bills
Strength: The strength of the Bills' rushing game is not particularly in its run blocking or its running backs but in how the run game is complemented by an outstanding QB in Josh Allen and an above-average receiving group led by WR1 Stefon Diggs and soon-to-be-star TE Dalton Kincaid. Cynthia Frelund, NFL Networks Analytics expert, ranks the Bills offense going into 2023 as one of the top 10 in the league.
Weakness: Over-reliance on Josh Allen. With his passing and running, Allen opens everything up for the Bills' rushing game. If Allen ever gets hurt with his scrambles (and I hope he stays healthy), the Bills' offense will be nothing like it is with him in there.
X-Factor: Damien Harris. Only two years ago, in 2021, Harris rushed for 959 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry for the Pats. After playing only four seasons and with only 106 carries in 2022, Harris still has plenty of miles left on his legs. Harris provides another option for the Bills and may push Cook for RB1. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said of the Harris signing:
"The biggest thing is the speed element. We felt like we needed a slightly bigger back, but not a 250-pound cloud of dust type of guy. So to find a player with some size, with some power, but also has the speed element to go along with it, I think that's hard to defend."Sean McDermott
No. 4: Miami Dolphins
Strength: Terron Armstead, a former Pro Bowl selection, is still capable when healthy, and Robert Hunt is a talented young guard whose career is on the upswing. Hunt had a run-blocking grade of 76.2 to go along with a pass-blocking grade of 74.0 in 2022.
Weakness: Armstead is both a strength and a weakness as he is entering his 11th year in the NFL, and it’s unclear how much he has left in the tank. The Miami offense line lacks quality, and the addition of a pair of 1st-round busts—signing former Patriot Isaiah Wynn and well-travelled Cedric Ogbuehi--doesn’t really change anything.
X-Factor: Devon Achane. I am projecting Achane to carve out a significant role in the Miami running game. If Achane can be the home-run hitter to complement Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, the Dolphins will have that speed element that Bills Coach McDermott notes “is dangerous and can put a little bit of fear into defensive coordinators.” Take note Jerrod Mayo/Steve Belichick….