It was easy to get spoiled, wasn't it? For almost two decades, the New England Patriots had Tom Brady behind center. This meant a number of things.
For one, the Patriots were going to have a chance to win every game and the Super Bowl every season. Brady won six in his time with the Patriots. Brady won three MVPs. Between 2001, when Brady became the full-time starter, and 2019, New England missed the playoffs just twice, and one of those seasons (2008), Brady was hurt early in the year and played only part of one game.
The Patriots getting another Tom Brady - or any NFL team getting another Brady - is extremely unlikely, but because New England is having an unsuccessful season and because the team has at least $75 million in cap room for the offseason, New England will have every chance to improve its current quarterback situation. Here are five players who could be QB1 in 2024.
No. 1 - New England Patriots could potentially draft Caleb Williams
Let's go ahead and probably start with the most ideal QB1 for 2024. How the Patriots finish out their regular season and what surprises happen at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft will determine if New England can take Caleb Williams, of course. After a surprise victory in Week 14, the Patriots might have a tough time winning any of their remaining four games as they play the Chiefs, Broncos, Bills, and Jets in succession. The Patriots could - possibly should - finish 2023 3-17.
This would mean the team has at least the second pick in the draft. We can assume that the Carolina Panthers are going to have the worst record, but they traded their first-round choice to the Chicago Bears, so the Bears have a huge question about whether they want to move on from Justin Fields or not. If not, the Patriots should have their pick of quarterback in the draft.
Two quarterbacks currently appear to be at the top of the 2024 draft class among players at their position. Those two QBs are Williams and Drake Maye. Maye, though, was a bit inconsistent this year, while Williams basically put up the same kind of numbers he did in his Heisman Trophy-winning season of 2022. Plus, Williams has one talent that coach Bill Belichick will love: he does not turn the ball over.
Williams has a total of 14 interceptions in 1,099 career college attempts. His quarterback rating was a bit higher in 2023 than in 2022, and his average yards per attempt (10.3) was the same as in 2022. He only threw 30 touchdown passes versus 42 in 2022, but he also passed the ball 112 fewer times. The USC product has elite arm talent, excellent pocket awareness, and is extremely mobile. He would be QB1 to begin his career in New England.
No. 2 - Geno Smith
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is currently under contract through 2025 with Seattle, but Seattle has an easy out after the 2023 season and very likely might take it. Not that Smith has been bad because he hasn't been, but the Seahawks are in a different spot than the Patriots. Seattle has spent the last two seasons trying to rebuild through the draft after trading Russell Wilson in the 2022 offseason. Seattle likely needs a young quarterback to go with their young roster.
Smith would bring a veteran presence to a Patriots offense that needs it. Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe have not been good for several reasons in 2023 - lack of good protection and not much quality depth at receiver, to name two - but both quarterbacks also never had a real chance to learn from veteran experience for very long, and learning on the job in the NFL is many times a lost cause.
Smith would probably not put the Patriots into a conversation about potential contenders next year, but no quarterback is going to do that in New England. The team just has far too many needs. But Smith would make the Patriots better. He led the NFL in completion percentage in 2022 and the NFC in touchdown passes.
He hasn't been as efficient in 2023, but he is still 15th in QBR in the NFL (55.7), 16th in passing yards (2,918), and second in game-winning drives (3). He also should not be overly expensive to sign, even though money will not be an issue for the Patriots in 2024. A veteran leader of the offense who can get the best out of the talent the Patriots do have is just what New England needs to get closer to .500 next year.
No. 3 - Bailey Zappe
Zappe is probably never going to be a Pro Bowl quarterback, and he likely isn't a long-term starter in New England, but if the Patriots want to go in a different direction with their first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft - maybe take an offensive lineman, a high-end receiver, or a top cornerback - then Zappe deserves a chance to be the team's starter next year. While he hasn't been great, he also hasn't really had a chance to prove he can be the Patriots' QB1.
Zappe has four starts in two years and has won three of those games. While his interception percentage is a little high (3.3 percent), his touchdown percentage is solid (4.3). His yards per completion is also a full yard better than Mac Jones'. The issue, too, with Jones is many of his numbers have decreased every season (touchdown percentage, quarterback rating, and yards per completion) while his interception percentage has gone up.
Zappe should be the answer over Jones as QB1 in 2024 if the New England Patriots decide to stand pat at quarterback next year while trying to improve the rest of the roster. Zappe plays a lot like Baker Mayfield. Is Mayfield a great quarterback? Not at all, but he is capable of keeping teams in games and putting up decent numbers.
A Patriots fan might ask whether Jones or Zappe can get the most out of the current receiving talent in New England. Both quarterbacks seem to know the offense as well as the other. But we have seen Jones digress while Zappe hasn't had his chance.
No. 4 - Drake Maye
Drake Maye declared earlier this week that he is foregoing his final two seasons at North Carolina in order to enter the 2024 NFL draft. He has all the physical tools to make an outstanding NFL quarterback, though one concern is why his numbers and efficiency seemed to take a step backward in 2023 compared to his first full year as a starter in 2022.
A prominent reason for Maye's numbers not looking as good might simply be that the Tar Heels did not use him as well as last year. One of Maye's biggest attributes is his ability to move around in the pocket and sprint down the field as needed. North Carolina had him run 72 fewer times this year, which hurt their team.
But we don't care about North Carolina winning or losing, of course. We care about how Drake Maye will make the Patriots better. The key is that Maye should be able to use whatever talent the Patriots give him and maximize their efficiency. He is 6'5" and 220 pounds with an extremely accurate arm and can throw receivers open.
He can also escape pressure and pick up first downs with his legs much better than Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, or most other current NFL quarterbacks. As bad as New England's pass protection has been this year, and assuming it isn't much better in 2024, Maye is going to make the offense better because of his ability to pick up chunk yards while running.
No. 5 - Kirk Cousins
The last quarterback on the list might not be the sexiest choice, but if the New England Patriots want to use a bit of their disposable cash while drafting players who improve the team overall, the Patriots could do worse than Kirk Cousins. The knock on Cousins has been that he isn't great in the playoffs, but New England might not have to worry about that in 2024. Or they might, because Cousins is still good enough to help his teams make a postseason run.
Cousins might not be crazy expensive, either. He will be 36 years old in Week 1 of 2024, and he will be returning from a torn Achilles tendon he suffered in late October. Teams don't want to pay a lot of money to an aging quarterback freshly coming back from an injury that could take more than a year to fully recover from.
But Cousins should still have had enough time to get back on the field to be able to start next year. His regular season numbers are very good and, most importantly, consistently good. He has a quarterback rating of 103.1 or better in four of the last five years. In six years with Minnesota, his interception percentage has been only 1.8, while his touchdown percentage has been 5.6. That is a sterling ratio.
Cousins also knows how to bring his team back from the brink of loss. In 2022 alone, he had eight 4th quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives. He has led the league in that category twice in his career, including last season. Cousins does get a bit of a bad rap in the postseason, though. His career record is 1-4, but he has a 5 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio and a quarterback rating of 93.7.
Overall, Cousins is a winner, especially in the regular season, who can come to New England and make the team better for a few years.