Besides the continued criticism of the Patriots' 2023 season, one of the other main headline-making topics throughout the last 14 weeks has been surrounding Bill Belichick's job security and the uncomfortable decisions that Robert Kraft may need to make this offseason.
The speculation kicked into high gear this week when NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran claimed sources had indicated to him that the decision to fire the head coach at the end of the year was made a handful of weeks ago, meaning the last four games of the season will also be Belichick's final games coaching in Foxboro.
Although it remains just a rumor, it has been a debated conclusion once it was made clear that the Patriots will not be a competitive team this season. That has been the biggest issue over the last four seasons, and now that they're facing their worst record in more than two decades, Belichick's position as the team's head coach and general manager is being questioned even more harshly with every passing day.
Because of that, more gossip keeps filtering out about Belichick's possible fate and what moves the Krafts are considering as the offseason nears.
Rumor #1: Bill Belichick wasn't fired midseason because he's still considered an asset
With the Patriots' woes stacking up as the season progressed, demands for Belichick's midseason firing began to get louder. Many couldn't fathom the idea that Kraft would keep him in the position after struggling to accomplish much of anything for a fourth straight season.
Despite all he has accomplished, many felt it was time to move on from the tenured head coach, and his performance since Tom Brady left was more than enough proof that his time had come. That became even clearer this season as the offense was an absolute mess, and the defense would not be able to do the entire job of the team in hopes they could scrape out more wins.
All of that may be true, but this isn't just any random head coach we're talking about. Even if Belichick has had a questionable and frustrating few seasons, he's not a guy you fire midseason. Other than being a tricky decision for any team to consider, Kraft is very well aware of how much Belichick has helped bring to his team, and given all his accomplishments and years with the organization, an outright firing during the year was not at all considered.
That's a point Tom Curran shared on "Arbella Early Edition” earlier this week before his most recent rumor broke the internet.
"The main one being, you don’t fire Bill Belichick during the season. It’s just not going to happen. Additionally, though, he’s an asset. He’s under contract for another year, which we reported after NFL Media reported there was a long-term extension in place that would keep Bill locked up long-term. It’s only through next year. So, that would not be an impediment to them changing course."
His contract extension only being for another year doesn't necessarily indicate an impending change, but it does seem more likely now than when the news initially broke about Belichick being kept long-term.
It does make sense to keep him on through the end of the season, though, because he is likely still viewed as a top head coach candidate to teams in need of one for next year. Kraft can use that to his advantage in hopes he can trade Belichick for some sort of compensation, which will be a bonus heading into a critical offseason.
Rumor #2: The idea of Jerod Mayo replacing Bill Belichick is considered a 50/50 possibility at this point
Within the conversations about Belichick either retiring from New England or coaching elsewhere next season is the question of who would replace him in any scenario. For years, it seemed like Josh McDaniels was being groomed to eventually take over, which could still be in the cards, but because he failed in his second chance to be a head coach, it may not be the best decision for the organization.
The only other sensical candidate has been promoting linebackers coach and former Patriot Jerod Mayo, who canceled interviews set up with the Panthers earlier this year to return to the Patriots. The team released that information in an uncharacteristic memo revealed to the public, seemingly hinting at Mayo being part of the eventual Belichick succession plan.
But now, it seems that may not be the case.
One of the latest rumors reported by ESPN's Dan Graziano suggests that sources around the team are split on whether Mayo will be named the new head coach.
"Multiple sources in and around the building say Mayo taking over next year is the most likely outcome, though others are no longer certain that’s the way Kraft will go. Mayo would have to sell Kraft on who will be in charge of the offense, the quarterback’s development and personnel. That could all happen and work out in Mayo’s favor, but it doesn’t sound like it’s a 100% sure thing."
Considering the amount of unforeseen changes that will need to happen this offseason, it doesn't seem unreasonable to believe that the Krafts may be hesitant about their confidence in going with Mayo. Things can change, and they may want to approach the significant changes as a complete tear-down and rebuild, bringing in all new faces to build a new staff and culture.
On the other hand, although nothing is guaranteed and there's no loyalty in sports, it seems a bit misleading to have appeared as if Mayo was in line for the eventual promotion, just to rip it away from him less than a year later.
Maybe he's not ready yet, or perhaps he's not really the guy. But potentially ruling it out entirely isn't a good look.
Rumor #3: Robert Kraft's original plan was for Bill Belichick to remain as the head coach for at least two more seasons
After the disappointing and frustrating 2022 season for the Patriots, most within the team had an optimistic attitude throughout the offseason about where the team would be at the start of the new league year. Matt Patricia wasn't retained, Joe Judge had been moved to a different position, and the hirings of Adrian Klemm and Bill O'Brien were widely applauded.
The same positivity wasn't felt when it came to the roster, though, as solid contributors like Jakobi Meyers were not re-signed, and the players that were brought in were not the game-changing additions the team desperately needed.
Training camp and preseason went much more smoothly than the previous year, and Mac Jones appeared back on track with how he had performed as a rookie.
Most of that remained apparent once the season began, but it all quickly plummeted as the weeks passed. It prompted questions about Belichick's fitness to remain the head coach for the Patriots, given that roster building and the lack of proper coaching and development of a young quarterback had been one of the most significant blemishes on his resume in recent years.
That has apparently played a big part in Kraft's decision to strongly consider moving on from Belichick, as noted by Dan Graziano.
"Sources close to the Patriots believe Kraft’s plan entering this season was for Belichick to coach two more seasons and have Mayo take over in 2025. Belichick entered the season needing 18 wins to catch Shula for most career victories (regular season and postseason combined) among NFL coaches, and the thought was he could get that done in two seasons.
Entering Week 15, though, Belichick remains 15 wins behind (Don) Shula and the Patriots’ roster issues make it difficult to imagine him getting there anytime soon. The extent to which this season has gone off the rails, sources say, has Kraft rethinking everything."
Seeing him tie or overcome Shula's winning record did seem like a courtesy Kraft was willing to make for Belichick over the next few seasons, but with how the last four years have gone, the Patriots don't seem any closer to accomplishing that feat for the head coach.
What may have been a priority just one year ago doesn't seem like a factor that Kraft will ultimately consider when he is forced to decide the futures of the head coach and the team.
Rumor #4: Despite the Titans' objection, Mike Vrabel is still considered an option to replace Bill Belichick
Among the many rumors that have swirled about Belichick's job was the suggestion that Kraft's number one choice to replace him was recent Patriots Hall of Famer Mike Vrabel. Although the Titans currently employ him, reports indicated he hoped to convince the former linebacker to seek a trade or work his way out of Tennessee to step into the head coach role in New England.
Once that rumor picked up steam, sources with the Titans quickly shut down the possibility, stating they had no intention of moving on from Vrabel, essentially ending all speculation about his potential return to his old team.
But that doesn't appear to deter Kraft, who is said to be still focused on him as the one for the job.
"Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel, recently inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame for his contributions as a player, is among the other names mentioned in league circles as a potential candidate to succeed Belichick, though there’s no indication a split between him and the Titans is imminent. NFL rules require a full search with multiple interviews, and no one should assume any succession plans that were in place a year ago remain."
Given that Vrabel signed a contract extension in early 2022 and the Titans have only won a single playoff game in his six years as the head coach, it doesn't seem entirely off the table that they would trade him to another team for some sort of compensation.
On top of that, the GM that signed Vrabel to that extension was fired not long after he signed on the dotted line, which may open the door for this to indeed be a possibility.
But even if that's true, Kraft will need to widen his search for a new head coach and not focus on candidates who may not be available. Not to mention, considering guys who don't have a long-term connection to the team may be the best way to go.