Bill Belichick is catching up to the NFL. Yes, the mastermind behind two New England Patriots dynasties, the football genius who used to set trends for the rest of the league to follow, is finally adopting trends that changed the game.
It starts with raw, straight-line speed. For years, Belichick eschewed blazing 40-yard dash times in favor of 20-yard shuttle and three-cone drills results. Quickness, change of direction, and acceleration meant more to Belichick because it’s rare for football players to run in one direction for 40 yards.
Belichick is right. Sprints don’t happen very often in the NFL. And you can’t argue with Belichick’s past results emphasizing quickness over speed. But years of the league getting faster eventually put the Patriots a few steps behind.
Bill Belichick learned the hard way some of his tried and true standards wouldn’t cut it for the New England Patriots going forward
Belichick always liked great athletes in the trenches. Now he’s added them at the skill positions and all levels of the defense. Over the past three drafts, three receivers and a running back who posted 4.4 40 times were selected (though Pierre Strong Jr. was traded to the Cleveland Browns).
Adding speed to the defense required giving up on big, physical linebackers. That was harder for Belichick to let go of. But he dipped his toe in the waters with Mack Wilson Jr. and Raekwon McMillan last year before selecting Marte Mapu this past spring.
Also breaking the mold were Christian Gonzalez, Ameer Speed, and Isaiah Bolden, three ginormous cornerbacks after years of stocking the secondary with sub-six-foot defenders.
At 6'2", Gonzalez could become a shutdown defender. His arrival took longer than expected, as Belichick’s experience with Aqib Talib and Stephon Gilmore should have been fresh in Belichick’s mind—a year of Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant, and Marcus Jones being taken advantage of changed that.
That doesn’t mean Belichick is abandoning all of his beliefs. This year, he got a real offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach. He added a second, productive tight end to try to revive the success of a two tight end offense. And Belichick retains the knowledge to out-scheme many of his peers, as he did against the Detroit Lions.
Now Belichick can do it with better talent. The results could be very satisfying.
Someone will make the NFL All-Defense Rookie Team
This should be a big year for rookies on the New England Patriots defense. The first three selections were on defense, bookended by two cornerbacks as the final picks. All five made the roster following the NFL roster deadline.
The top three selections are primed to have plenty of opportunities to show their greatness.
Christian Gonzalez, New England’s top selection, is already being projected by multiple publications to make the rookie all-defensive team. He is expected to start from day one and is in the hands of Belichick, who knows a thing or two about coaching defensive backs.
What Gonzalez has shown in the preseason so far has been very promising. He’s been sticky in man coverage, more physical than the scouting reports suggested, and made a great recovery during the preseason game against the Green Bay Packers that resulted in an interception, though he was flagged on a very ticky-tack call.
But a case can be made that Keion White has been the best rookie defender this preseason. In the preseason opener, White was a force, generating a handful of pressures against the Texans.
He will join a rotation up front that includes Deatrich Wise Jr., Matt Judon, and Josh Uche, which will be a problem on the stat sheet for White.
White can play either end or tackle in odd or even alignments. While this versatility will benefit the Patriots, it will limit White’s opportunities to tally sacks, an overrated stat to measure defensive linemen productivity.
The player to watch out for is the one Belichick has kept tucked inside his vest like a sawed-off shotgun under a trench coat: Marte Mapu.
Mapu has practiced all preseason but wore a red non-contact jersey for most of the summer. He shed it during the joint practices against the Packers. He saw his first game action in the final preseason game and flashed intriguing closing speed on occasion.
It feels like Belichick doesn’t want to show his hand with this kid. Mapu could be a game-changer for the defense as a linebacker/safety hybrid the league hasn’t seen in Belichick’s hands before.
Reports from training camp suggest that Mapu could be special. And we know the last safety Belichick selected, Kyle Dugger, already is. Adding Mapu to Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills, and Dugger almost feels like cheating.
The element of surprise, plus playing alongside talented veterans, should put Mapu in excellent position to make plays. Gonzalez and White could be great for the Patriots, but Mapu could sneak onto one of the rookie all-defensive teams.
The young receivers will combine for more than 1,000 yards and five TDs
The outrage about the New England Patriots not selecting a receiver in the first round of the last two drafts is tiring. Instead, fans should feel very encouraged based on what we’ve heard and seen about the young receivers on the roster.
Demario Douglas has been so good during training camp that he is getting the veteran treatment. Kayshon Boutte just took a quick slant to the house against the Green Bay Packers. And Tyquan Thornton is sidelined with another injury.
A lot of people are down on Thornton, which is understandable. You can’t make the team from the tub. But go back to his rookie highlights. He showed solid skills and some explosiveness that could be put to good use.
And Thornton had the best catch of the preseason on a leaping reception against the Texans.
Maybe it’s not that the Patriots can’t draft receivers, but they had bad luck with them, as two had careers cut short due to injuries. Hopefully, that won’t be Thornton.
He won’t have a significant role on the team with the veterans ahead of him on the roster, but he should still see the field in certain packages to exploit his abilities. One YAC play would change a lot of minds about Thornton around here.
Boutte and Douglas don’t have to prove a thing at this point. We’re sold on their potential already. Boutte started slow in camp but has been a playmaker practically every day since he found his stride. And “Pop” Douglas has done exactly that since day one in camp.
Douglas teased his elusiveness on a receiver screen against the Packers. What should have been a loss was turned into a 2-yard gain. Boutte did the same by taking a quick slant and running the rest of the way for a 42-yard score.
On paper, it looks tough for any of the three to get a lot of snaps, with DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster ahead of them on the depth chart. But injuries happen, and the Patriots typically use their depth to their advantage. Belichick and offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien will find ways to use all six receivers.
A trade is possible, but it shouldn’t take moving a veteran to create more opportunities for the young pass catchers. Douglas could log 500 yards and a few scores on his own. All Boutte and Thornton would have to do is split the remaining 500 yards and notch a score each.
That would be a good combined season. And the Patriots would have three very good receivers, not just one.
Mac Jones becomes a top-5 candidate for Comeback Player of the Year
It would be easy to suggest that Mac Jones is not the franchise quarterback for the New England Patriots. For most of last season, he looked like anything but. But changes around his support staff should put him in a position for a career year. Maybe enough to get consideration for a certain award.
One gambling site has Jones with the 50th-best odds of being the NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Jones should be higher. A lot higher.
If a player returns from a season-ending injury or a medical situation, the chances of making this list are incredibly high. Or if a star player returns to form after a disastrous year, he will get strong consideration.
So it’s not surprising that Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin, who nearly died on the field after collapsing during a Monday Night Football game, is the favorite. And Houston Texans receiver John Metchie III starting his pro career after beating leukemia is a great story worthy of being high on the list.
Then there are the Pro Bowl players who were straight trash last year, like the Denver Broncos’ Russell Wilson and the Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson. We know what they’re capable of. If they return to that level of play, they will get CPOY votes.
Jones was bad, but he wasn’t atrocious like Wilson and Watson. But if Jones is dramatically better in 2023, he could rocket up the CPOY board.
We should be confident in the difference offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien can have for Jones. And even without a marquee name in the receiver corps, the group is better than people give them credit for. Jones could thrive in this environment and put up some big numbers.
He’s going to have to. The season starts with the reigning NFC Champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, followed by the talented Miami Dolphins, the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets, and the star-studded Dallas Cowboys. Jones will have to put up some points for the Patriots to have a chance against these teams.
That will be the story for the 2023 season, as the Patriots have the toughest schedule in the NFL. Jones reverting to the performance of his rookie year won’t be good enough.
Jones won’t win CPOY, but if he finishes with 30-plus touchdowns and ten interceptions or less, it should be enough to be in the top five at some point. And if Jones has a great year, the New England Patriots will have a great year. So great that…
The Patriots finish second in the AFC East and will be in the Wild Card hunt
The 2022 New England Patriots lost four games by one score. They lost the season finale by 12 because special teams allowed not one but two kickoff returns for touchdowns. The Green Bay Packers needed overtime to beat the Patriots.
During a potential game-winning drive, Rhamondre Stevenson coughed up the ball at the Cincinnati Bengals’ eight-yard line. And we can’t forget what happened against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Just one more win would have tied the Patriots with the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars, with tiebreakers determining New England being on the outside looking in.
Yes, it’s a tougher schedule than last year, but don’t count out a Belichick-coached Patriots team.
Start with having a real offensive coordinator. Bill O’Brien is a quantum leap better than Matt Patricia. A great defense last year has the pieces to be better with enhancements at all three levels, with a legit number-one cornerback the headliner. And special teams was addressed in free agency and through the draft.
Tougher schedule? Sure, but there is some hype. Looking within the division, Rodgers is an upgrade over Zach Wilson, but he isn’t the MVP Rodgers we knew from the Packers. I’m still not buying Tua Tagovailoa as a franchise quarterback. The Buffalo Bills are all that, but New England played them close in the season finale. Splitting the division is very possible, with a winning record within reach.
Obviously, outside the division isn’t a cakewalk, but Belichick usually finds ways to win games the Patriots shouldn’t. Most thought New England had no chance against the Packers or Bengals last season. With a better team, upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers is very possible.
All the Patriots need is one more win than last year to be a borderline playoff team. 9-8, or even 10-7, is very possible for this team.