As the 2023 NFL season nears, there isn't a lot of optimism in and outside New England about the Patriots' chances in general, but especially within their own division.
It has been years since the AFC East has been truly competitive, which played a big part in how dominant the Patriots were during the Tom Brady era. But over the last few seasons, the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets have made dramatic moves to improve their teams, making the division winner far less predictable than in years past.
Now that they're no longer guaranteed division winners, the Patriots' odds of coming out victorious with a division title have dwindled.
The Buffalo Bills have taken over that first-place position with a dominant offense led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs and an outstanding defense not intimidated by top receivers around the league.
The Dolphins and Jets are now vying for second place, with New York getting a slight edge over Miami because of their massive trade for Aaron Rodgers earlier this year. Both have standout players on defense with offensive lines that have been far more competent than the protection Mac Jones has dealt with over the last two years.
And then that leaves New England, who is projected to finish last in the East, even with all the changes they've made this offseason.
But is that accurate? It depends on who you ask.
Nothing is ever certain in the NFL, especially when we're making conclusions this early in the offseason. Plus, it's difficult to completely dismiss the idea of the Patriots performing better than expected when Belichick is still their head coach, despite what some pessimistic fans will say about the legendary head coach.
So even though their odds may not be in their favor, and most fans will scoff at the idea of this even being discussed, there are a few reasons the Patriots could win the AFC East this upcoming season.
The Bill O'Brien and Adrian Klemm effect
The Matt Patricia experiment of the 2022 season will forever be remembered for how poorly the team was positioned to be successful. And, of course, how the season progressed, too.
Now that Patricia has moved on to the Eagles and Bill Belichick hired old pals Bill O'Brien and Adrian Klemm to replace his duties, the offense is clearly in better hands to thrive.
Bill O'Brien can elevate the offense
One of the biggest struggles of last season was the offense being led by an inexperienced offensive mind put into a position he allegedly didn't want in the first place.
Regardless of the truth to that, Patricia's coaching was detrimental to the offense's performance throughout the season. The player's overall vibe was completely different from just a season before, and their production on the field matched.
Although he may have been trying his best to juggle being the offensive play caller and the offensive line coach and tried to be successful when he was not put into a position to do so, Patricia's inexperience and lack of creativity was a significant factor of the offense's demise in several games.
Now that O'Brien has returned with even more experience than his last tenure in New England, Mac Jones, and the offense have been put on a better path to success. He is a coach familiar with the team and Belichick specifically and was a big part of some of the Patriots' successful teams in the late 2000s to early 2010s.
Plus, he is said to be already creating quite an impression from the offense this spring, with several players, including Mac Jones, raving about how much they enjoy working with him so far.
Adrian Klemm returns to where he won three Championships
Without piling on Patricia too much for last year, it was obvious he was given far too many responsibilities that he was not equipped to handle, like taking over Josh McDaniels' position and becoming the offensive line coach at the same time.
With the playcalling duties back in good hands, Belichick prioritized hiring a well-respected and accomplished offensive line coach. Klemm's expertise as a former tackle with championship experience in New England will be invaluable, paired with his lengthy coaching resume beginning in 2009 at SMU.
Although he will be returning to his former team under tough circumstances, as the offensive line was an especially struggling unit last year, Belichick made sure to bring in some veteran free agents to bolster the roster. On top of that, he emphasized the need to improve the line overall by drafting several versatile and athletic linemen in the draft earlier this year.
Since it appears Klemm has been put into more of a situation to succeed this year, all the traits he has that Patricia didn't will be the leading factor in significantly improving the o-line's performance, thus benefitting the offense entirely.
Divisional rivals are dealing with a lot of changes this year
Changes can be good and bad for any player or team, of course, and those concluding that all the teams in the AFC East will have a much easier time implementing and overcoming these changes don't seem to realize this fact.
Some of the tweaks the other three teams will deal with in 2023 may become more problematic than beneficial.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills, for starters, are said to be working on Josh Allen running the ball less in hopes of preserving his health and prolonging his career by avoiding a higher risk of injury. That's not a bad idea, in theory, because we know how other mobile quarterbacks' careers have progressed as they aged, so trying to avoid that same fate for Allen makes sense.
However, Buffalo has relied on this aspect of Allen's game a lot over the years, and attempting to dramatically minimize it could wind up being a mistake.
Additionally, last week was filled with drama between the Bills' coaching staff and Diggs after head coach Sean McDermott proclaimed the receiver's absence from minicamp to be "concerning."
His press conference led to confusing conclusions, with details revealing that Diggs had been at practice and even spoken with McDermott before leaving early. More rumors indicated issues between Diggs and the Bills began last season when they exited the playoffs early again, and it appears his displeasure with that result is trickling into this season.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins find themselves in somewhat of a similar situation with Tua Tagovailoa's injury history. The quarterback has reportedly suffered multiple concussions during the 2022 season and was said to have dealt with some of the more severe effects of the head trauma.
Although they intend to continue with Tua as their quarterback, it's certainly a situation to monitor, given the seriousness of any head injury. Plus, Mike McDaniel has already dealt with questionable tactics regarding how he dealt with his quarterback's injury last year, like keeping him in a game where he displayed almost every indication of having suffered a concussion.
Besides question marks about Tua's health for the season, McDaniel's influence since becoming Miami's head coach last year hasn't been too exciting, either. The team finished the season with a 9-8 record, making a postseason appearance for the first time since 2016. However, that ended early when they lost to the Bills in the first round.
It was just his first season in Miami, so you can't put too much into how it went to determine the future. But he wasn't all that impressive to most who watched the Dolphins last year.
New York Jets
Then there's the Jets. They've become the frontrunners to win the AFC East and possibly the Super Bowl, all because of Aaron Rodgers. It's pretty silly, actually.
Rodgers is a talented quarterback; there's no denying that. But he is nearing 40 years old and has started to show his age. To appease him since joining the team, the Jets also brought in some of his best buddies from Green Bay, like Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard.
Although New York may feel comfortable with all the changes they've implemented and like their chances to be successful, this is the first time Rodgers has been on any team other than the Packers. Who knows how well he will do in a new environment with new coaches and an entirely new team?
It could work out wonderfully, or it could be a complete disaster. Surely, Rodgers will let the whole world know no matter how it turns out, as he loves to blame others when things go wrong and take all praise for himself when things go well.
Bill Belichick may have some extra motivation
Since Tom Brady left the Patriots in 2020, Bill Belichick has had to work through a rebuilding process for the first time without a guaranteed stud at quarterback.
Over the years, New England's roster wasn't always considered top-notch, but when you have the security blanket of Brady, it wasn't too much of a concern because he could make any receiver look like a superstar.
Since that's no longer the case, we've seen Cam Newton and Mac Jones be put into positions unfavorable to any new quarterback in New England.
Avoiding the Newton debate, Jones has had a lot to overcome in just the first two seasons of his NFL career. His rookie year was more impressive than expected, and last season was too much for the quarterback and the rest of the offense to be even remotely successful, given the circumstances they were dealt.
But the biggest problem that has impacted the organization has been missing the postseason in two of the last three years, to which Robert Kraft has repeatedly expressed his disappointment publicly.
This was rumored to have put Belichick in the hot seat to make the much-needed changes ahead of the 2023 season to drastically improve the chances of accomplishing a successful season, and it seems the head coach has done just that.
From the personnel changes and free agent additions to a new approach to the NFL draft, Belichick's effort to put the Patriots in a better position this year compared to last is apparent. But will it be enough?
Although he's not the type of person to care what others think of him, his legendary career has begun to be questioned by fans and media alike, with some even calling for Kraft to fire him if 2023 ends similarly to last year. Whether or not it's valid, the debate is being had because of how lackluster the team has looked in Brady's absence.
This could become a motivating factor for Belichick, and maybe even for the players, to do everything possible to end this upcoming season positively.