3 key matchups for the Patriots Week 16 matchup with the Broncos

This has all the indicators of a very odd game.

Denver has the worst run defense in the league; nobody allows more than their 5.2 yards per attempt average. Yet they’ve still won 7 games. The Broncos have also had issues stopping their opponents from scoring. But the Patriots are ranked last in the league for points scored.

What a way to end Christmas Eve.

You might think that the most crucial matchup would be the one between one of the best offensive-minded head coaches of the last 30 years against the best defensive-minded coaches ever. But Belichick and Payton have only ever met three times as head coaches.

Belichick has won 2 of those meetings, but there isn’t any real history between them. In fact, both coaches have praised each other in their respective press conferences this week. Well, that’s just no fun, is it?

Zack Cox of NESN reported that Belichick said he has “a ton of respect” for Sean Payton, and in response, Payton harked back to his tenure as Saints head coach recalling a game when Aqib Talib traveled all over the field to shut down Jimmy Graham.

Payton also invoked the Broncos game against the Lions last week when Aaron Glenn (who played under Payton in New Orleans) double-teamed Courtland Sutton to hold him to 5 catches for 71 yards (that’s not terrible numbers, but Sutton has previously managed 113 yards on five catches).

So, going into this Week 16 game, who are the three most intriguing matchups to watch for?

Courtland Sutton vs. Jalen Mills

Courtland Sutton is an excellent place to start regarding important matchups. 2023 has been his best season in terms of catch percentage. His 68.2% success rate is 9% higher than any of his other five seasons in the league! 

He’s also caught a third of the touchdowns the Broncos offense has scored. The Broncos have only won one game when Sutton hasn’t caught a TD. That seems like the sort of thing opponents should pay attention to. 

How the Patriots go about defending him is the question. If Christian Gonzalez were healthy, it’d be simple: just put the best pass defender on their best pass catcher. The tall, rangy Gonzalez up against the 6 feet 4 Sutton would have been great to watch. 

Sutton has caught passes on 11% of his routes against zone and 17% against man. So, zone is probably the way to go there. The Patriots tend to use man coverage more than zone, although they like mixing up schemes. And with all the injuries, including J.C Jackson’s mental health issues, it could be a patchwork pass defense this week.  

If the Patriots do decide to defend Sutton with man coverage and play zone elsewhere on the field, it would make sense to put Jalen Mills in man coverage. He hasn’t conceded a passing touchdown in 2023. And while he might not be as tall as Sutton, “it’s the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog,” as someone once wrote on a t-shirt.

Mills has only allowed 15 passes thrown his way to be completed this season. That ranks him third on this Patriots’ defense behind Alex Austin and J.C Jackson (but Austin has only made one start, and Jackson is unavailable).

Ezekiel Elliot vs. the Broncos run defense 

It’s the worst in the league, remember? And the Patriots currently have five wide receivers either out or dealing with injuries. Oh yeah, and did I mention they’ve forecast snow in Denver? It’s due to begin on Saturday night and end on Monday!

Fun! Have you ever tried catching a snowball? 

So, both teams will need to run the ball if they want to score any points at all. Since Rhamondre Stevenson’s high ankle sprain, Elliott has averaged 4.1 yards per touch. And Kevin Harris scored an 18-yard rushing touchdown last week, so the Patriots have been running the ball well without Stevenson.

They need to exploit the Broncos' fragility. 

Both teams vs. the elements 

This is a slightly less boring way of saying, “Both kickers and punters need to be really accurate,
mainly because you don’t want your specialist players having to tackle a returner in the snow. Plus, both punters are the holders for place kicks. That will be tricky with snow on the ground, a slippery ball, and numb fingers to boot. 

Russell Wilson has never lost to the Patriots in the regular season. In Super Bowls, though? Well, we all know what happened there. During those regular season games, he’s thrown 11 touchdown passes and just one interception.

At this stage, it would be a shock if the Patriots add another road win to their 2023 record. But this game could get pretty wild. 

Read more from Musket Fire: