The New England Patriots are not going to make the playoffs. That isn't exactly breaking news. Pats fans have known that for quite some time this season. But what we didn't realize was that New England still had a chance of getting better, especially offensively. And yet, New England has.
Say what you will about whether it is time for head coach/de facto general manager Bill Belichick to leave New England, and the Patriots to bring in younger coaching staff to help lead the team to glory once again, but there is one thing Belichick's teams don't do, and that is quit. Although, to be fair, I wouldn't want to have to answer to Belichick if I were on the team and appeared to be giving up.
New England has now won two of their last three games. It always feels good to win, of course, but the winning might hurt the team in the long run, and the Patriots' first-round draft pick in 2024 keeps falling lower. However, maybe Belichick doesn't care about that, as he might be gone after 2023. But here are three things I am guessing will happen in Week 17.
No. 1 - The New England Patriots won't gain 200 total yards
There really is very little reason that the Patriots should be scoring more points now than they were earlier in the season, at least speaking in terms of raw statistics. Before the Week 11 bye week, New England had five games where they had at least 327 total yards. Yet, they scored 20 points or fewer in four of those games. That isn't going to win many games, which explains New England's 2-8 record through Week 10.
Since Bailey Zappe became QB1 for the Patriots in Week 13, New England has just one game over 300 total yards and that was just 303 in Week 14. But in two of the last three games, New England scored 21 points or more, which happened only once before Week 13. Zappe needs to be more capable of leading his offense to explosive numbers, but he can be efficient and have fewer turnovers than former QB1 Mac Jones did.
The Buffalo Bills, however, held a very good Dallas Cowboys offense to only 195 total yards and 10 points two weeks ago. After a wretched start to 2023 when the Bills allowed at least 105 yards rushing in a game in five of their first six games, only twice since Week 7 has Buffalo given up more than 100 rushing yards. The Patriots are not going to be able to run against Buffalo, but they can keep the game close with an efficient passing game, even if they aren't getting explosive plays.
No. 2 - The Patriots defense is going to force 3 turnovers
One way to stay in a game where one's offense is not moving the ball well is to create turnovers when the other team has the ball. Buffalo has three games this season with three or more turnovers, including Week 16 against the Los Angeles Chargers. Buffalo still won the game because the Chargers are simply terrible (they've lost six of seven, and we won't discuss the one win they did actually get in that stretch) and because Los Angeles kicked field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen also seems to be struggling to pass the ball. In Buffalo's last four games, he has more touchdowns rushing (6) than passing (5). Before Week 16, he completed 56.9 percent of his passes or less in the previous three games. Allen also has thrown at least one interception in every game this year, but three. His 15 interceptions on the season are second-most in the NFL.
New England isn't likely to get a ton of sacks on Allen. He is tough to bring down even when a defender gets home on him, but he can be inaccurate and as long as the Patriots hold in coverage, Allen is going to force a pass or three. New England will get 2 interceptions in Week 17 and also force a James Cook fumble and this will be enough for the Patriots to stay within striking distance in the fourth quarter.
No. 3 - Who wins and how
The New England Patriots are playing for pride right now, plus trying to earn future jobs with the Patriots or another team. It is honorable that New England has won two of three games because fans watching a team just show up and try not to get hurt on their way to losing by two or three touchdowns is no fun.
Many fanbases might not show up to pull for their team and spend lots of money on concessions and so on (heck, Miami Dolphins fans don't do that even when the team is good), but Pats fans are different, and they deserve a team that plays hard until the bitter end. The 2023 Patriots are doing just that. But for the future of the franchise, it would be better if the Patriots lost so that their first-round draft pick is higher. Bailey Zappe has been a bit of a positive surprise, but he is not the long-term starter at quarterback; New England should draft that player in 2024.
But we aren't to 2024 quite yet and the Patriots still have two games left and they are going to continue to play hard even when the games are not always pretty to watch. Week 17 is going to be no different as New England will struggle to move the ball, but one of the interceptions they get off Josh Allen is going to be a pick-six. Another one of the forced turnovers is going to set the Patriots up deep in Buffalo territory. New England is going to go to Buffalo and steal the game 17-14.