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Oddsmakers deliver brutal Week 3 verdict on Patriots vs Steelers

Despite a strong offensive performance against Miami in Week 2, the Patriots are still picked to lose to the 1-1 Steelers.
Graham Wilker
Graham Wilker

Musket Fire

New England Patriots v Miami Dolphins / Rich Storry/GettyImages

The New England Patriots evened out their record to 1-1 after a strong offensive performance on Sunday. Drake Maye totaled three touchdowns, Rhamondre Stevenson had a career high 88 receiving yards, and Antonio Gibson had a spectacular kickoff return touchdown.

Despite their 33 points, NFL.com's John Breech predicts a significant fall from grace, with New England scoring just 16 points on Sunday and losing to the Steelers.

Such a fall from grace would be a major concern and incredibly disappointing after the Patriots scored their most points in a game since a 38-point explosion against the Browns in 2022, which saw Bailey Zappe throw for over 300 yards and Tyquan Thornton record two touchdowns.

The Patriots need to keep up their momentum after a big win over the Dolphins in Week 2

The Steelers defense has names, no doubt. Their cornerback room is strong, featuring Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Joey Porter Jr. Brandin Echols, who spent several years as a slot cornerback for the Jets, is also rostered. Linebackers Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson are stout, and the defensive line is anchored by Cam Heyward. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are among the best edge duos in football.

Despite all this, the Steelers have allowed 30+ points in both of their games, the fourth most in the league through two games. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker each went for over 100 rushing yards with very healthy yards per carry in their matchups against Pittsburgh, so clearly, stopping the run has been a problem for the black and yellow.

Stevenson had a strong 4.9 yards per carry on Sunday, so perhaps going back to the ground game against a weak run defense would be a good move.

Offensively, Pittsburgh is interesting. Aaron Rodgers is still startable, but very much a veteran at this point. Jaylen Warren is a serviceable back, and the committee of wideouts behind D.K. Metcalf has had some success: Calvin Austin had 70 yards in Week 1. Former Patriot Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth lead the tight ends. It's not a bad group, but their current eighth-ranked offense seems to be overperforming all things considered.

While the Steelers will make the game tough on the Patriots, a 19-16 loss wouldn't be likely based on what we've seen the last two weeks. I'd expect the score to be a bit higher, perhaps 30-27.

With several starters already ruled out, like Joey Porter Jr. and Alex Highsmith, the Patriots may get a break with injuries. For now, I'll say the Patriots are on the right side of this game, outscoring the Steelers by three.

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Graham Wilker

Graham Wilker

Graham Wilker is a contributor for FanSided’s New England Patriots blog, Musket Fire. He is an expert when it comes to both the Patriots and NFL, specifically free agency and the NFL Draft. He hasn’t missed a Pats game since November 11, 2018: a game in which they suffered a defeat against a Marcus Mariota-led Tennessee Titans. He’s been writing about the Patriots since 2018 when he started his first fan account on Instagram. When he got to college, he began writing for his college’s newspaper about the Patriots and the NFL more broadly, something he’s been doing since October 2024.