Has the dust settled yet? I’m ready to put the 2022 season behind us. This Patriots team was downright frustrating. Armed with ascending young talent on both sides of the ball, this team gave us just enough each week to fool ourselves into thinking we had a shot. But it’s time to be honest with each other.
We were many things this season: tough and underrated but infuriating. In the Bill Belichick era, it feels strange to acknowledge what we were not: well-coached or a team that looked at any point like a group that could make a deep playoff run. Instead, we were a middling team in an increasingly tough AFC East all season.
But let’s look at the positives and what we should be thankful for. Marcus Jones, Kyle Dugger, Christian Barmore, and Josh Uche have all arrived. The Patriots have impressive young talent on defense, and the versatility of Marcus Jones is also obvious on special teams and even offense. Joining him on the offensive side of the ball, Rhamondre Stevenson took a ridiculous leap in his second season and could arrive in year three among the NFL’s elite.
Of course, a lot will happen between now and the kickoff to next season. There need to be changes in the coaching staff. We have tough decisions to make on extending some key agents. And we need Matt Groh to hit another home run in the NFL Draft. But if the Patriots find a way to check every box, 2023 should be a good year. So with the recent announcement of the Patriots’ 2023 opponents, let’s look ahead to next season.
Home
Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders
Away
Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers
There are certainly several variables that we don’t know. Short weeks, rest, coast-to-coast travel, and so on. In another wrinkle, it looks like one of the Patriots’ nine home games in 2023 may be played in Germany. These are my far-too-early predictions for next season.
AFC East
In divisional games, I believe the Patriots get three wins. A split is always a good place to start in a relatively evenly-matched division such as the AFC East. Sometimes the Patriots will go 2-0 against one team and 0-2 against another, as they did this season. But as a general rule of thumb, a 3-3 total is a fair starting point.
Patriots Wins
Outside of the AFC East, the Patriots should add home wins against the Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders, and New Orleans Saints. All three teams have significant question marks, especially at the quarterback position. On top of that, all three could also see coaching changes in the offseason.
On the road, the Patriots have winnable games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Giants (don’t believe the hype), Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers feature second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, who will still be experiencing growing pains. Bill Belichick loves to confuse young quarterbacks, and that seems like a perfect spot for an ugly, hard-nosed New England win.
In looking at the Raiders and Giants games, the first thing that comes to mind is familiarity. Bill Belichick knows Giants coach Brian Daboll and Raiders coach Josh McDaniels very well. NFL players “get up” for specific games; I refuse to believe that NFL coaches don’t also. These are two games that Bill Belichick will “get up” for. Considering this season’s painful Week 15 loss to the Raiders and the Patriots coming off a losing season, Coach Belichick will be eager to get back on the right track.
As for the Broncos, there are serious question marks with the state of the franchise. This much is sure; there will be a new head coach. Can they revive Russell Wilson’s career? This team is loaded with talent; given the coaching change, this is a team I’d love to get early in the year before they have a chance to get hot. As for Dallas, that team may look a little different next year, with difference-maker Tony Pollard potentially moving on. Unless Dak Prescott impresses in the playoffs, I think many fans wonder if he can continue to play at a high level for much longer. Prescott threw for a league-leading 15 interceptions in 2022 (in only 12 games), including 11 in his last seven games.
Patriots Losses
Let’s make this clear: the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are not unbeatable. The Patriots should play these teams close, and depending on the offseason the Chargers have, the Patriots may even have the edge in that one. We will be in these games, but if I had to pick two non-divisional losses, these are two that stand out. The Patriots are at home for both of these, so I could see them going 1-1, but for the sake of the exercise, we’ll call it 0-2.
I’m counting on a loss against Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts has the mobility that gives Bill Belichick defenses trouble. The Eagles have two elite wideouts in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and a stud tight end in Dallas Goedert. Meanwhile, the Patriots will be undergoing a significant change in the secondary over the offseason. That will be problematic in this one.
Summary:
AFC East: 3-3
Non-divisional Home: 3-3
Non-divisional Away: 5-0
Total: 11-6
Maybe we come out flat and lose road games to the Broncos or Cowboys, but perhaps that evens out in a home win against the Chargers or Eagles. Regardless, it’s easy to see this as an 11-6 team. This schedule has some teams that jump off the page at you for a brief spook (looking at you, Kansas City), but overall, I don’t think this is a bad draw for New England. It will be interesting to see the finalized schedule, as the timing of these games really does change things. But there is good reason to be hopeful in New England.