It all comes down to Sunday afternoon in Buffalo. If the Patriots win, they are in the playoffs as the seventh and final seed in the AFC. Lose, and they may have to wait to see some results break their way. The bottom line is that somehow, someway, they control their own destiny heading into the final week of the season. Unfortunately, not only are the Bills a formidable opponent, but they are playing for their own playoff positioning of their own and teammate Damar Hamlin. Needless to say, emotions will be high for this one. Here are three matchups I’ll be looking at Sunday afternoon.
Three key matchups for the Patriots in week eighteen
Patriots run defense vs. Buffalo run game
For all of the talk of Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Bills’ passing game, it was the running game that gave the Patriots fits in the first matchup. The Bills ran 37 times for 132 yards and a touchdown as they kept the Patriots’ defense on the field for most of the game. Of course, Allen did have his moments, but the Patriots’ inability to stop the run killed them in this game. Rookie running back James Cook is coming on for the Bills, gaining 203 of his 462 yards over the past four games. That includes a career-high 99 yards on only 11 carries in their last game against the Chicago Bears.
The Patriots, for their part, have been much better against the run over the past four games. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 97 yards in any of the past three games. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley has been really good against the run but has enjoyed the help of Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers in recent weeks. However, the Patriots will need to stop the run game on Sunday afternoon to have a shot.
Three key matchups for the Patriots in week eighteen
Patriots run game vs. Buffalo run defense
In their loss to Buffalo last month, the Patriots only ran the ball 14 times for 60 yards, as they had to play from behind most of the night. Of course, this was without Damien Harris, and three of those runs were scrambles from Mac Jones. So that means there were only 11 designed runs called the entire night; yikes. Not a recipe for success against the high-powered Buffalo offense. The return of Harris last week gave the running game a bit of a spark, as Rhamondre Stevenson admitted to slowing down a bit as the season has progressed.
Since their game against the Patriots, the Bills’ closest game came a few weeks ago at home against the Miami Dolphins. Despite a high-powered passing attack, the Dolphins seemed to want to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands and committed to controlling the game through the ground. 188 rushing yards later, the Dolphins nearly came out of Buffalo with a crucial road win. The Patriots will need to follow this formula (and stay ahead of the sticks) on Sunday afternoon.
Three key matchups for the Patriots in week eighteen
Patriots vs. Buffalo fans/emotions
It has been an emotional week for the Bills. There’s no other way around it. I can’t imagine what the team has been going through all week long and it’s been great to see the rest of the NFL world rally around Damar Hamlin and the team. The fact that Hamlin is breathing on his own and was able to FaceTime the team is miraculous and such great news. Great news for everybody but the Patriots.
This is going to be an electric atmosphere in Buffalo on Sunday. If they had Hamlin talk with the team, I imagine they’ll have him give a quick message on the video boards before the game. If this were a domed stadium, the reaction would blow the roof off. The fans, already some of the best in the league, will be nuts. The team, energized by the great news surrounding their teammate, will be ready to go. Also, there might not be anyone rooting for the Patriots after this week. If the Patriots weather the first 10 minutes of this game, they might be in a good spot. If not, watch out.