Not a bad week for the bold predictions as three of them hit in the Patriots’ win over the Detroit Lions last week. Matthew Judon continued his sack streak, Rhamondre Stevenson became the team’s first 100-yard rusher on the season and the Patriots defense did a great job limiting T.J. Hockenson to just one reception for a measly six yards. Unfortunately, Kendrick Bourne remains to be a missing part of the offense and the one time Tyquan Thornton got behind the defense, Bailey Zappe didn’t have enough time to find him.
Sunday brings another winnable game for the Patriots on paper, but nothing is a given with this team so far. Bailey Zappe had a very efficient outing last week, will the coaching staff let him sling it a bit more this week? Will he even start? Will the Patriots be able to keep Nick Chubb in check? Here are my five bold predictions for what might happen during the game on Sunday afternoon.
Five bold predictions for the Patriots in week six
Rhamondre Stevenson records back-to-back 100-yard games
After Damien Harris went down with a hamstring injury last week, Stevenson went off for a career-high 161 rushing yards against a poor Lions rush defense. With Harris expected to miss more time as he deals with his injury, Stevenson will have another chance to shoulder the load against another porous rush defense.
Coming into the game, the Browns rank 28th against the run, giving up over 138 yards per game and 5.3 yards per rush. Last week, Austin Ekeler of the Chargers was able to garner 173 rushing yards on just 16 attempts, something the Patriots hope Stevenson will be able to replicate on Sunday.
Five bold predictions for the Patriots in week six
Hunter Henry scores a touchdown
Finally, we had a step in the right direction when it comes to Hunter Henry and the Patriots offense. After being seemingly invisible through the first four weeks, Henry was second on the team in targets (behind Jakobi Meyers) last week and was able to post season-highs in both receptions (four) and receiving yards (54). However, Henry has still yet to find the endzone, but that is partly the fault of the play calling. The Patriots had to settle for five Nick Folk field goals as their drives stalled in the red zone and not once did they allow Zappe to take a shot at the endzone. I think that will change as Zappe gets more comfortable and gains more trust from the staff.
Defensively, the Browns have been very stout against opposing tight ends this season, allowing only 14 receptions for 184 yards through five games. They are one of eight teams that has yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end but that changes Sunday. Last year, Henry caught two touchdowns in the week 10 matchup, and he gets at least one this week.
Five bold predictions for the Patriots in week six
Patriots hold Nick Chubb under 100 yards
Yeah, this is pretty bold. Not only do the Browns have the NFL’s best rushing attack, but Chubb leads the league with 593 rushing yards (118.6 per game). Chubb has been held under 100 yards just once this season when the Jets held him to 87 yards in their week two matchup when Chubb carried the ball a season-low 17 times. In his only career game against New England, Chubb went for 131 yards in a 2019 loss at Gillette Stadium. In other words, the Patriots are going to have their hands full trying to stop the best running back in the league on Sunday.
After back-to-back outings giving up over 180 yards on the ground, the Patriots rush defense had a good outing against a very good Lions running game last week, holding them to 101 yards. They were able to bottle up Jamaal Williams as he only gained 56 yards. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots’ focus on taking away their opponents’ best player so I imagine the focus this week will squarely be on Chubb. They’ll need Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore and Carl Davis to win at the line of scrimmage as Lawrence Guy is not expected to play, according to a source.
Five bold predictions for the Patriots in week six
Ja’Whaun Bentley leads the team in tackles
If the Browns come out running the ball as expected, Ja’Whaun Bentley is going to be a huge factor in this game. Fortunately for the Patriots, he is coming on at the right time, as 15 of his 31 tackles have come in the last two weeks. He stepped in to help make a huge run stop on fourth and inches during the Lions opening possession and overall had a really good game.
Ja'Whaun Bentley in his zone in the run game yesterday #Patriots pic.twitter.com/2d8t8RdDdC
— Brian Hines (@iambrianhines) October 10, 2022
If the big guys up front are able to control the line of scrimmage like they did last week, Bentley will have plenty of chances to make plays in the running game. The key will be for him to actually bring Chubb down as he has proven to be difficult to tackle.
Five bold predictions for the Patriots in week six
Bailey Zappe gets the start for the Patriots
The Patriots play at 1:00 EST on Sunday which will continue to be Zappe Hour for at least one more week. Quarterback Mac Jones continues to be a limited participant in practice as he tries to fight his way back from an ankle injury but according to a source, he is still having trouble running. Zappe will get the start for at least one more week as it will give Jones another eight days to try and get healthy enough to play against Chicago on Monday October 24th.
Zappe has excelled in the two and a half games he has played, completing 27/36 (75%) for 287 yards, two touchdowns and one interception that was not his fault. I think the Patriots like the game management from him and a 100% Zappe is better than a 50-75% Mac Jones. Now, if Zappe continues to play well, do we have a controversy on our hands?