With Mac Jones currently on the shelf, the Patriots will most likely head into Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers with Brian Hoyer under center. If you want to call it an epic mismatch, I won’t blame you. Rodgers has won back-to-back MVP awards while Hoyer is riding an 11-game losing streak as a starting quarterback that stretches all the way back to 2016. The good thing is there are plenty of other key matchups to watch as the Patriots try to pull off a road upset.
Key matchups for Patriots in week four
Patriots offensive line vs Green Bay rush defense
I would be stunned if the Patriots rely on the arm of Hoyer in this one, so I expect there to be a lot of emphasis on the running game. A good comparison might be the Packers’ week two victory over the Chicago Bears, where the Bears only threw the ball 11 times but were able to rack up 180 yards on the ground. The Packers have given up a healthy 4.9 yards per rush and teams were averaging 153 rushing yards over the first two weeks, before only allowing 34 rushing yards to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers rightfully leaned on the arm of Tom Brady in week three as he attempted 42 passes to the team’s 14 rushing attempts.
Knowing that the Patriots are starting Hoyer, it will be interesting to see if the Packers stay in their zone defense and allow the Patriots to gain good chunks on the ground or if they decide to stack the box and force Hoyer to beat them with his arm. Either way, I do expect the Patriots to stick with the running game to hopefully use some clock and use Hoyer as a game manager.
Key matchups for Patriots in week four
Patriots front seven against Packers running backs
After trading away wide receiver Davante Adams in the offseason, the Packers offense has been left with a void at wide receiver. That void has only gotten bigger over the past two weeks as Sammy Watkins has landed on IR and second-round pick Christian Watson was inactive against Tampa Bay. As a result, Rodgers has gotten off to a (by his standards) slow start and it’s been the running game that has carried Green Bay. Through three weeks, the Packers rank ninth in the NFL in rushing yards and 19th in passing yards, very different from what we are used to seeing from them.
With the receiving corps decimated by injury, it becomes even more important for the Patriots defense to stop the two-headed rushing attack of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Patriots did a good job against the run during the first two weeks before the Ravens racked up 188 yards on the ground in week three. However, they also have to be weary of the running backs in the passing game as well. Rodgers has targeted Dillon and Jones 12 times each through the first three games as they are tied for third on the team in targets. In fact, over 25% of the team’s total targets have gone to the two backs. Davon Godchaux and Christian Barmore have got to clog holes up front, and the linebackers have to do a good job stopping the run and in pass coverage.
Key matchups for Patriots in week four
Patriots third down offense vs Packers third down defense
Converting third downs can go a long way for a team trying to control the clock and pull an upset on the road. In the Patriots’ case, staying out of third-and-long situations will go even further with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer at the helm. However, they get a tough test on Sunday as the Packers sport the NFL’s best third down defense. Through three games, the Packers have only allowed opponents to convert 22.6% of third down opportunities (7 for 31) while they have had to go an average of 8.2 yards on third down.
The Patriots offense has been pretty good on third down so far, converting 42.9% (9th in the NFL) having to go an average of 7.9 yards. A big reason why they have been able to convert third downs has been through the air, particularly the connection between Mac Jones and Jakobi Meyers. Ten of the 15 first down conversions have come through the air and five of those have been on completions to Meyers. Being in third and long situations will put a lot of pressure on Hoyer, and he will have to hope Meyers is able to find weak spots in the Packers zone.