The 2022 New England Patriots’ season is about to begin. Let’s make game by game projections for the team. What record will they finish with?
On Sunday, the 2022 New England Patriot’ season kicks off against the Miami Dolphins, in Miami. The team took a bit of a step back this offseason, unfortunately, but still have a solid foundation in place. They appear to have a competent offensive line, good head coaching, and a promising second year quarterback.
However, in the loaded AFC, the Patriots might simply not have enough. I believe that most of us would feel way more comfortable if the team was in the NFC, but obviously that’s not the case.
The Patriots’ 2022 schedule is filled with excellent opponents that will test the team most weeks. There are very few ‘gimme’ wins, and teams who have been weaker in the past, like the Dolphins and New York Jets, look promising as well.
So, let’s take a stab at projecting the season for the team, going game by game.
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 1-2
Week 1: Miami Dolphins
This may be the only time during the season that the Patriots have an advantage over the Dolphins. Miami has added a ton of talent this offseason in hopes of getting more out of Tua Tagovailoa.
With additions like Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead, Tua has more high end talent around him than Mac Jones, but I think Jones is the better quarterback.
Even still, the Patriots tend to falter some in Miami, and they could also be like the Dolphins, or even most teams, and come out slower than expected.
Unfortunately, I am projecting a week one loss for the Patriots.
Week 2: Pittsburgh Steelers
The following week sees the Patriots travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers.
The Steelers somehow went 9-7-1 last season and clinched a playoff spot. I am just not buying into much of what the Steelers have done. Sure, they’ll have a good defense, but I think that’s it.
Mitchell Trubisky is fine, but won’t win you games. It’ll likely be a defensive slugfest that may come down to a field goal, and with the Patriots having a slight advantage on on offense, I’ll take them to win this game away.
Record: 1-1
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 3-4
Week 3: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were ravaged by injuries last year and failed to make the playoffs. They had a killer draft and look ready to return to their old form. Lamar Jackson is likely playing for a massive contract extension.
This game is the Patriots’ home opener, but I just don’t see a path for the club to win. The Ravens are a disgustingly more talented team than New England, unfortunately, and Lamar Jackson is likely taking the game over at some point with a ridiculous play.
Week 4: Green Bay Packers
Weeks three and four are brutal games for the Patriots. They travel to Green Bay for this matchup against the back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers. The team lost Davante Adams in the offseason, so they’ll likely have to rely more on a offense by committee approach, which could work just fine.
Furthermore, their defense is quite loaded. The Packers have been a stellar team in the regular season ever since Matt LaFleur took over, and I don’t see how that changes. I don’t think the Patriots can win this game.
Record: 1-3
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 5-7
Week 5: Detroit Lions
The Patriots get to play the Detroit Lions at home. I think the Lions are currently building something worthwhile, but they aren’t there, yet.
They’ve got promising pieces on both sides of the ball, but I do think their defense and quarterback will hold them back a bit in 2022.
Give me Mac Jones over Jared Goff at Gillette Stadium everyday of the week. And give me Bill Belichick outcoaching Dan Campbell everyday of the week. This should be an easy win for the Patriots.
Week 6: Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson is going to miss this game, but it will be played in Cleveland. The Browns have a great offensive line, exceptional running back, and a very talented defense.
If Jacoby Brissett is indeed under center, this is going to be a much easier game for the Patriots to win.
However, I do think they’ll still have a tough time in this one. If Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn can hold back Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney, I like the Patriots’ chances.
Give me the good buys by a late field goal.
Week 7: Chicago Bears
I think the Ryan Poles era in Chicago thus far has been an absolute disaster.
I’m not personally high on Justin Fields, and there isn’t much to like with the Chicago Bears at all. They don’t have a good offensive line. They don’t have good enough pass catchers, and I’m not sure what to make of this defense.
The Patriots should be able to shut down the Bears’ offense, which likely isn’t going to do much anyway, and the team should be able to win this game by double digits, especially going against a rookie coaching staff.
Record: 4-3
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 8-10
Week 8: New York Jets
The Patriots have had the Jets’ number for years. The Jets are trying to finish up a rebuild and are in the second year of the Robert Saleh era.
They had a nice draft, getting three very talented players in the process in Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson.
However, I am not sure if Zach Wilson is going to be able to do enough in this game, and the Jets did have one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball with mostly ease, and the defense should feast on a young quarterback.
Week 9: Indianapolis Colts
I think the Colts trading Carson Wentz to the Commanders to just trade for Matt Ryan is a weird move that results in a wash.
The Colts did beat the Patriots last season and added Stephon Gilmore on defense.
I don’t think the Colts are particularly more talented than the Patriots, but I just have a feeling that Matt Ryan is going to do just enough to help the Colts win this game late.
Indianapolis is a very well coached team, but I think their ceiling is low. I just like them a little better in this game than the Patriots.
Week 10: Bye Week
The Patriots will head into their bye week with a 5-4 record, which might seem decent, but their final stretch of games is going to be brutal.
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 11-13
Week 11: New York Jets
Well, it’s nice that the Patriots get to play the Jets twice a year.
Obviously, it’s possible that Zach Wilson takes a massive leap in year two and figures it out, making these games a bit harder, but I think most should be looking towards 2023 or 2024 to see what the Jets could become.
They do have a nice roster, but I still like the Patriots to win these games rather easily.
Week 12: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an interesting team. They are stuck in a weird stop with Kirk Cousins, but they gave him a new contract this offseason, hired an offensive minded head coach, and added some nice pieces along the defensive side of the ball including Za’Darius Smith, Harrison Phillips, and Jordan Hicks.
They look like a team that has a very good shot to win 10 games in a wide open NFC, and I like Kirk Cousins more than Mac Jones.
The Vikings are home for this game and also have more playmakers. I think the Vikings win this, pulling away in the second half.
Week 13: Buffalo Bills
Their first matchup with the Buffalo Bills doesn’t come until week 13. By this time, the Bills are likely to be a well-oiled machine. They added an absurd amount of talent to an already loaded roster, most notably adding Von Miller in free agency.
They also added Jae Crowder on offense, an addition that I think has gone under the radar.
They drafted James Cook, brother of Dalvin Cook, and have a solid and deep roster, top to bottom.
Oh yeah, they also have Josh Allen, who is likely to be an MVP candidate this season.
I really would not expect the Patriots to win either contest with the Buffalo Bills this season. They just don’t have enough on either side of the ball to do it.
Record: 6-6
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 14-16
Week 14: Arizona Cardinals
If the Patriots win any of their last several games, I think it comes against the Cardinals. The Cardinals did this weird thing last year where they started on fire, and sputtered to the finish.
Apparently, this isn’t a new development for Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury, who has seen this happen back during his college coaching days.
The Cardinals didn’t have the greatest offseason, and Kyler Murray sometimes shrinks when it matters most.
I think the biggest advantage the Patriots have in this game is coaching.
Their defense isn’t all that, and their offensive line isn’t great, either.
The Patriots will win this game by a few points, which brings them to 7-6 on the season.
Week 15: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders made a ton of headlines this offseason when they traded for Davante Adams and signed Chandler Jones.
Their offensive line and secondary are still areas of concern, but their offensive weapons and pass rush are brutal, which are two things that are essential to being a good team in 2022.
This game is played in Las Vegas, and I think this is the beginning of a losing streak for the Patriots.
Their defense isn’t going to be able to hold up against Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller.
Plus, Josh McDaniels is going to want to stick it to his former team.
Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals had a magical run to the Super Bowl this offseason and got better where it mattered most.
They heavily upgraded their offensive line, adding La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras, former New England Patriot.
Joe Burrow is likely going to be even better in year three, and his ceiling is much higher than Mac Jones’.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are going to overwhelm the Patriots’ defense, which also has to account for Hayden Hurst, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon.
Their defense also has a couple nice pass rushers in Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to make Mac Jones sweat a bit.
Record: 7-8
Projecting the 2022 New England Patriots season, Weeks 17-18
Week 17: Miami Dolphins
Could the New England Patriots actually lose both of their matchups with the Miami Dolphins this season?
Miami appears to be ready to spring into contention behind an improved offense and a hopeful year three jump from Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins may have to deal with the inconsistency that comes with a first year Head Coach, but General Manager Chris Grier has loaded this roster up with talent so much, it’s almost hard to think that the Dolphins won’t win a bunch of games.
Week 18: Buffalo Bills
At this point in the season, the Bills are likely to have already wrapped the division up, but they might be playing for playoff seeding.
If they’ve already locked themselves into one of the first four seeds, they would likely rest some starters, so the Patriots could get a pity win here.
We won’t know until then, but resting starters doesn’t happen with a ton of frequency.
Even if the Bills were to rest Josh Allen, for example, I really can’t see the Patriots winning this contest.
I like the Patriots roster–I think it’s mostly solid, but what we’re talking about with the Bills here is a Super Bowl caliber roster, one that has led to the Bills being favored by most betting books to win the big game.
It’s not like this is another good team–this is an exceptionally well-built team that is set up for success for the next 10 years.
Final 2022 record: 7-10
A 7-10 season would be the team’s second losing season in three years, and it would begin conversations of wanting substantive change within the organization.