Watching Tom Brady win a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a year after he looked like a shell of himself with the New England Patriots crystallized the fact that Bill Belichick needs to hit free agency hard this offseason.
The Patriots slumped to 7-9 this season, as Cam Newton failed to adequately replace Brady. Given the imperfect storm of COVID-19 optm outs, injuries on both sides of the ball, and an improved division, New England had to watch the postseason at home for the first time in over a decade.
Tom Curran, who is as plugged into the Patriots as anyone in the world, thinks that Belichick, thanks to the plentiful cap space and a need to stay competitive in the AFC East, will be “extremely and uncharacteristically aggressive” during what promises to be a pivotal offseason for New England.
The Patriots can’t be too cavalier about how they choose to spend this offseason, however, because going after these three free agents wouldn’t be the wisest move.
The New England Patriots need to stay away from these free agents
3. TE Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry’s injury history should concern the Patriots.
The Patriots could look for an upgrade at the tight end position, as third-round picks Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene disappointed in their first pro seasons. The natural replacement, at least on paper, is Henry, who became one of Justin Herbert’s favorite targets during his sensational rookie season with the Los Angeles Chargers.
While the former second-round pick out of Arkansas caught 60 balls, a career-high, for 613 yards and four touchdowns, Henry has a couple of red flags that should deter Belichick. The most important ability in the NFL is availability, and Henry’s history suggests that staying healthy could be a huge problem.
Henry has never played 16 games in a season during his five-year career, and missed the entire 2018 regular season due to injury. Even if he managed to stay on the field, Henry, who was topped only by Travis Kelce and George Kittle in terms of salary last year, will likely command a deal in excess of $10 million per year, a price tag that Belichick has rarely dished out.
Henry is an excellent receiver and blocker that could be a major boost for this offense. However, given his injury history and exorbitant price tag, the shrewd, cost-cutting Belichick should decide to let some other team give Henry the high eight-figure deal he wants while trying to develop Asiasi and Keene into serviceable options.
2: DL Leonard Williams
Leonard Williams’ sack totals could be misleading.
After making a Pro Bowl in his second year with the New York Jets, Williams was singled out as a major reason for their defensive decline, as his 0.5 sacks in 2019 earned him a trade to the rival Giants. In a Patrick Graham defense more conducive to his skill set, Williams exploded, recording 11.5 sacks on a much-improved unit.
Williams will cash in this offseason, and a New England defense that thrives on having players like him that can man multiple positions might entice the Pats to pick him up. However, there are plenty of issues that should scare them away from bringing in their former arch-rival.
If Williams insists on getting top pass rusher money, that could give him a deal in excess of $20 million per year, a number that only five other players have surpassed. Furthermore, Williams’ pass rush numbers could be a product of Graham’s system, as he recorded 17 sacks in 4.5 seasons as a Jet before nabbing 12 in just under two seasons as a Giant.
Versatility is what will make Williams a lot of money this offseason, but that’s not what Belichick needs. To run his ideal defense, he needs an explosive pass rusher that can come screaming off of the edge and pressure the quarterback on all three downs, much like Chandler Jones once did. Williams will get paid, but he might be a funky fit in New England.
1. WR AJ Green
AJ Green has his worst professional season in 2020
Green is a seven-time Pro Bowler that will go down as one of the greatest players to ever suit up for the Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, while many expected him to be a reliable safety blanket for Joe Burrow, injuries that limited him to nine games in the last two years really seemed to take their toll on him. The most noteworthy issue was his struggles with getting separation deep.
Green tallied just 47 catches and two touchdowns last year, falling behind Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins in Burrow’s pecking order. Belichick has been known to give second-chances to veterans who have been hampered by injuries, and the Patriots need reinforcements at wide receiver. This pairing could be a win-win, right?
Wrong. The Patriots need speed and downfield playmaking right now, and Green offers neither of those traits. When his lack of speed is piled onto the fact he’s been hurt for the last few seasons and could seek a featured role in whichever passing game he ends up in, New England would be better off without him.
Belichick tried to poach an elite Bengals wide receiver once before in Chad Johnson, and he failed with the Patriots. Green can still use his frame to be a solid possession receiver, but the Patriots need more guaranteed production than projectable production. Green isn’t the answer.
Patriots Mock Draft: 7-round mock with all SEC players
This New England Patriots mock draft is seven rounds and only features players from SEC schools given Bill Belichick's history with the conference