Regardless of the opt outs, the Patriots still need help on defense.
Blame the offense all you want, Patriots fans. That’s not what’s really holding this team back. It’s the defense, and it’s time to come to terms with it. We know it’s hard because New England and Bill Belichick typically sport the best unit in the league year in and year out, but everything’s come crashing down in 2020.
The free agent exodus hurt, no doubt. The losses of Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts, Danny Shelton and others was a significant blow. The opt outs that followed — Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung — didn’t help either. But the Patriots, in short, have been exposed. Losing free agents is rarely an excuse for this kind of drop off.
Teams are supposed to prepare for such departures. You know, building depth through the draft? It’s pretty standard stuff. Though the last 20 years in Patriot Land have been nothing short of tremendous, Belichick has not been drafting particularly well since 2014, and the results have been quite obvious this season. The Pats just haven’t been able to hit with their first- or second-round picks, and it’s a serious problem.
But 2021 is a new year! New draft. New free agent class. Starting from scratch after this likely dud of the campaign will surely feel good. And the Patriots will have a ton of cap space to spend. Fixing the defense should take priority, so here are a few guys Belichick should look to open up Robert Kraft’s checkbook for.
3. Dalvin Tomlinson
The Patriots could use Dalvin Tomlinson stuffing up the middle.
How about another Alabama guy on the Pats? Dalvin Tomlinson has been with the New York Giants ever since being selected in the second-round back in 2017. The 6-foot-3, 318-pound behemoth hasn’t missed a game in his NFL career and has really hit his stride in the 3-4 scheme after being a 4-3 defensive lineman for his first two seasons.
Across 10 games in 2020, he’s got 35 tackles, 1.5 sacks, four passes defensed, five tackles for a loss, and seven QB hits. He’s on track to nab career-highs in all of those stats with the exception of sacks (and passes defensed, because that’s already a career high) with six games remaining.
His impact goes beyond the box score, too. The man’s a habitual run-stuffer, which is exactly what the Patriots have valued tremendously over the past 20 years. There’s always been someone up the middle clogging up holes or disrupting the quarterback, and there’s just been none of that this year.
The Patriots have been getting gashed left and right, whether it’s by the run or thanks to QBs getting a ton of time in the pocket to go through all of their reads. Tomlinson would be an immediate impact guy and Belichick would have a much easier time sleeping at night if he was starting at nose tackle every Sunday.
2. Grover Stewart
Grover Stewart would be a great fit for the Patriots’ defensive line.
Speaking of run-stuffers, Grover Stewart might be the most underrated in the NFL. And you want to talk about hitting one’s stride? Across 10 starts in 2020, he’s already registered a career-high 36 tackles, which is six more than his previous high across 16 games in 2019. The interior defensive lineman has been a force for Indy’s top-ranked defense this year.
Yes, he’s no doubt been benefitting from the presence of Justin Houston and DeForest Buckner, but he’s very clearly dominating his one-on-one battles, which is key for winning the game in the trenches. Stewart has a much more defined role now as a disruptor up the middle and it’s clear he’s benefitting greatly.
While he has no sacks or quarterback hits, like Tomlinson, Stewart’s value goes well beyond the box score. He’s a disruptor and constantly blows plays up in the middle, whether it’s closing a hole to stop the run or collapsing the pocket to stop the quarterback.
The only issue here? The Colts have more cap space and could very well prioritize the former 2017 fourth-round pick. However, Indy’s making it a priority to find a quarterback of the future, which won’t be easy. They also need to take care of Darius Leonard and address their secondary (they’ll have a bunch of guys hitting free agency there), so the front office could get distracted and might not be able to keep up if Stewart fetches offers early.
Time to strike, Bill.
1. Bud Dupree
The Steelers will likely prioritize TJ Watt, which makes Bud Dupree a potential Patriots target.
This is wishful thinking because the Patriots almost never pay top dollar for defensive players, but Bud Dupree would likely be worth every penny, especially if more cap space is freed up in the event of a Stephon Gilmore trade (we’re still not going to rule that out until next year’s trade deadline passes).
The fact of the matter is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to have to choose between Dupree and TJ Watt, and we all know Watt will get the nod. Dupree’s also under the franchise tag for 2020, so you know that the Steelers won’t be able to afford slapping him with that again in 2021.
So when the former first-round pick from 2015 hits the open market, he’s going to have a ton of suitors. But this is the perfect time to pay him. He’s come into his own over the last two-plus seasons and will only be 28 by the start of next year. The outside linebacker has registered 136 tackles (30 for a loss), 25 sacks and 45 QB hits across his last 42 games.
Throw him on the outside with Hightower in the middle and Chase Winovich on the other end (and an emerging Josh Uche), and the Patriots will return to their stout defensive ways. Aside from an injury-shortened 2016, Dupree has missed just one game in his other five seasons.
That kind of durability and production is exactly what Belichick values. If it costs a little extra this time, so be it. The Patriots need the help now, and they need it fast if they want to return to contender status.
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