The New England Patriots, along with the rest of the NFL, are now less than one week away from the start of the 2019 Draft… so it’s time to predict the results.
It’s one of the more exciting times of the NFL offseason – if not the most exciting time of all. Year after year, the New England Patriots and 31 other teams assemble in one city with throngs of owners, coaches, staffers, players, fans, and league executives on-hand to participate in a three-day event that simultaneously has everything and nothing to do with the game of football.
A legitimate argument can be made that outside of free agency or injuries, no other element of the offseason has a greater impact on the product we’ll see come September in football stadiums across the nation. The NFL Draft is the eternal pipeline that infuses rosters with youth, energy, and excitement every spring, and leaves fans of every franchise thinking the sky really is the limit for their favorite squad come winter.
It’s also a mostly-tedious affair marked by brief blips of excitement – almost all of which occur on Thursday during the first round – that doesn’t feature any actual competitive action, athletic prowess, or feats of skill. In other words, it’s a testament to the popularity of football in this country that the NFL Draft can go toe-to-toe in the television ratings with the playoffs of two other major U.S. professional sports leagues (the NBA and the NHL).
So without further ado, let’s dive right into the New England Patriots‘ draft scenarios and most-likely selections next week. With a whopping 12 picks spread out over seven rounds (tied for the most in the NFL), the team will have ample opportunity to inject its roster with fresh blood.
Round 1, Pick 32: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
“OBJECTS IN MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR.”
That’s the warning label that most likely materialized on the inside of any offensive lineman’s helmet who was unlucky enough to stare down 6’4, 350-lb defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence across the line of scrimmage last season.
Once ranked the No. 2 overall recruit entering college football in 2016, Lawrence set a Clemson record after notching five sacks as a true freshman. He also added 55 tackles during the Tigers’ 12-game regular season, before having an additional seven tackles and 1.5 sacks in two playoff games that season.
His numbers dipped a bit his sophomore and junior seasons as the Tigers spread the wealth around the top defensive line in the country. Presumably, his draft stock also took a hit when he was forced to miss the 2019 College Football Playoff because of a positive drug test.
Lawrence is more than just a terrific physical specimen at defensive tackle though – he’s also versatile enough to play in a 4-3 or a 3-4 scheme, something Bill Belichick surely values in his players. He could step in immediately alongside Lawrence Guy to fill the void left by Malcom Brown, who left for the New Orleans Saints in free agency.
A game-wrecker equally suited to run-stuffing as he is to pressuring the quarterback, Lawrence regularly commanded double-teams in college, and it’s not crazy to think that trend could continue at the professional level. If he’s still available when the Patriots pick last on Day 1, they’d be fools to pass him up.
Round 2, Pick 56: Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware
The biggest knock on safety Nasir Adderley isn’t anything to do with his skills, abilities, or intangibles as a football player. Quite simply, it’s that he played for an FCS school against inferior competition for four years with the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens.
Now obviously there are plenty of players from FCS schools who went on to do great things in the NFL. Carson Wentz, Khalil Mack, and former Patriot Malcolm Butler are just a few of the first names that come to mind, as all have had their moments of glory and appear well on their way to long and prestigious NFL careers.
Still, it’s often more difficult for talented players to make the jump from FCS competition to NFL competition than it is for some of their teammates who come from FBS programs.
The leap from college to the pros is never easy in the first place, but no one can deny that it’s probably a whole heckuva lot easier to go from playing for Alabama against Clemson in the National Championship Game and then transitioning to the NFL… than it is to go from playing for Delaware against James Madison in the FCS Playoffs and then transitioning to the NFL.
Adderley is still a fine football player though with killer instincts for where to be on the field at any given time to make a play. His physical skill set should make his indoctrination to the NFL game easier, and he’s proven already that he can play against some of the best college prospects in the nation – albeit in a small sample size – through his participation in the Senior Bowl.
If Belichick wants to start grooming a safety of the future to replace Devin McCourty (who flirted with retirement this offseason), he could do a lot worse than Adderley in this year’s draft.
Round 2, Pick 64: Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan
Whether it’s because of his physical style of play flying off the edge, or it’s because of his long free-flowing blonde hair, Chase Winovich very much resembles a young Clay Matthews. The two players both excelled for blue-blood college football programs (Winovich at Michigan and Matthews at USC), and like Matthews before him, Winovich stands a real chance at getting drafted in the first two rounds.
The Patriots should hope he falls to them at No. 64. Especially after losing multi-dimensional edge rusher Trey Flowers to the Detroit Lions in free agency, New England has a very real and a very pressing need at defensive end. Thankfully for Belichick and the Patriots, Winovich just might be part of the solution to fix that problem before September rolls around.
Besides his top-line velocity, Winovich has one of the best motors in all of college football. This kid simply does not quit, shedding would-be blockers and tacklers like rag dolls as he powers his way to wherever the football carrier is. Woe to the quarterback or running back caught in his sights.
Twice Winovich earned First-team All-Big Ten honors, last year and in 2017, so it’s not as if his play hasn’t been recognized outside of Ann Arbor. Similar to Lawrence and Adderley, the biggest concern for the Patriots might be that Winovich isn’t still around when they pick next, so it’s up to Belichick and the rest of the New England brass to make sure they get their man.
Defensive lineman is a position of quality and depth in this year’s draft, which bodes well overall for the Patriots, who are in sore need of beefing up that area of their team in 2019.
Round 3, Pick 73: Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama
The strong, lengthy connection between Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban is well-documented. Apart from being on the same coaching staff with the Cleveland Browns in the 90s, Belichick and Saban have maintained a firm friendship as well as a deep level of mutual respect over the subsequent years.
Belichick was in attendance at Alabama’s Pro Bowl, where he met with a number of NFL draft prospects that will surely be selected in the first couple days of the event. Many reports link the Patriots to tight end Irv Smith Jr., which would make sense considering Rob Gronkowski’s retirement last month.
Still, tight end is somewhat surprisingly an area of relative depth in this year’s draft class. While it certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see Belichick nab Gronk’s replacement in the first round, my thinking is that might be a bit high for a talent-evaluator as prudent as Belichick.
Historically, most tight ends have struggled to make the adjustment to the NFL until later in their careers (with Gronkowski being a notable exception), so it might make sense to wait until Day 2 to try and find a tight end. If that is indeed the plan, then several top tight end prospects (like Smith Jr.) could already be gone.
Fellow Alabama footballer Mack Wilson would also fill an area of need for the Patriots. While New England’s defense as a whole overperformed in last season’s magical postseason run – particularly in Super Bowl 53 – it doesn’t completely disguise the fact that there’s not a lot of depth in the Pats’ linebacking corps. Look beyond Dont’a Hightower and breakout star Kyle Van Noy, and suddenly New England’s coffers appear particularly bare.
Wilson was exceptional during his time in Alabama, and should have an easy time making the transition to the NFL. He would pair nicely with fellow Crimson Tide alumnus Hightower if the Patriots call his name on draft day.
Round 3, Pick 97: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M
This selection is made with the assumption that none of the “Big Three” tight end prospects are still available to the Patriots on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. If Alabama’s Irv Smith Jr. is still around when the Patriots are on the clock in Rounds 2 or 3 – or if either one of Iowa’s talented duo of Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are still around – then the Patriots should select one of those three players.
More than likely though, the Patriots will be forced to look beyond that trio for Gronkowski’s replacement. New England made headlines recently when they brought in Texas A&M’s Jace Sternberger for a workout, so it’s not as if there isn’t any interest already established on the part of the Patriots when it comes to the 6’4, 250-lb tight end.
Sternberger languished at subpar football programs like Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma A&M for three years before finally getting his chance to shine under Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M in 2018 as a transfer. In just one season, Sternberger racked up 48 receptions for 832 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He was named a First-team All-SEC and Consensus All-American as a result of his outstanding play last season, and not long after his year ended, Sternberger decided to announce for the NFL Draft.
If selected by the Patriots, he would immediately have a chance to make starting-caliber contributions. In addition to Gronkowski’s retirement, the team also lost Dwayne Allen to the Miami Dolphins in free agency. Although they recently signed veteran journeyman Austin Seferian-Jenkins to a one-year deal, anyone who saw Seferian-Jenkins play in Jacksonville last season can probably tell you he’s not the long-term answer.
Sternberger could be.
Round 3, Pick 101: David Sills V, WR, West Virginia
David Sills V quite possibly was the best collegiate wide receiver in the country two years ago. He led the nation in touchdown receptions with 18 – 18!!! – to go along with 60 catches and 980 yards.
Citing unfinished business to attend to with quarterback buddy Will Grier, Sills returned for his senior year and again lit the world on fire among college receivers. He bested his catch and yardage totals from the previous season, finishing with 65 catches and 986 yards. And though he couldn’t quite replicate or top his scoring output from 2017, he came pretty darn close with 15 touchdowns on the year.
At 6’4 and 210-lbs, Sills has the prototypical build to be a dangerous outside receiver in the NFL. He has blazing speed, excellent coordination and body control, and has finessed his route-running to be among the nation’s best at his position. He also has some of the softest, surest hands in this year’s receiver draft pool.
Belichick doesn’t necessarily have the best track record when it comes to drafting wide receivers in the first three rounds (Chad Jackson and Aaron Dobson, we’re looking at you), but Sills is the kind of prospect that just screams long-term success. After all, this is a young man who was getting college scholarship offers as a seventh-grader, lest anyone forget.
With Cordarrelle Patterson in Chicago, Chris Hogan in Carolina, and Josh Gordon indefinitely suspended, the Patriots desperately need help someone on the outside who can stretch opposing defenses and take some of the attention away from Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman. Sills seems like he could be the perfect candidate to do just that.
Round 4, Pick 134: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia
“Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong,
West Virginia, mountain mama,
Take me home, country roads…”
The Patriots give David Sills the perfect training camp roommate when they select his college teammate and best buddy Will Grier. Originally a transfer from the University of Florida, Grier owns a career passing accuracy percentage of 65.7. He also threw for over 7,000 yards in just 22 games as the Mountaineers’ starting quarterback, and was good for 71 touchdowns against 20 picks.
While not much of a runner, Grier throws one of the best deep balls in all of college. He has exceptional pocket presence and is a master at sensing and evading oncoming pressure. Amongst all qualified collegiate quarterbacks, he ranked No. 3 overall in adjusted completion percentage against the blitz (statistic courtesy of ProFootballFocus).
At 6’2 and 217-lbs, he looks the part of a starting NFL quarterback. While flashier, buzzier names like Kyler Murray, Drew Haskins, Daniel Jones, and Drew Lock garner most of the headlines in this year’s QB draft class, Grier is usually listed as a distant fifth in that same hierarchy. Some scouts and analysts even peg prospects like Ryan Finley and Jarrett Stidham above him.
In other words, Grier could go as high as Round 2 or as low as Round 5. It’s always hard to predict what teams will do, particularly when it comes to drafting quarterbacks.
The Patriots are in the enviable position of already having the Greatest Quarterback of All Time as their unquestioned starter in 2019. Even though Tom Brady will be 42 by the time the season rolls around, he proved over the last few years that he’s every bit as good as the other top quarterbacks in the NFL – many of whom are a full decade younger than him.
It’s age and age alone that forces the Patriots to make this pick, as they know they won’t have Brady around forever. Even Tom Terrific himself has said he only plans to play another two-to-three years more at most, so now seems like the perfect time to draft a successor who can sit behind Brady and learn from the master.
Round 6, Pick 205: Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson
If the Patriots are going to pair fellow Mountaineers David Sills and Will Grier, then it only seems fitting that they’d buddy up fellow Tigers Dexter Lawrence with Hunter Renfrow.
Renfrow, you’ll remember, was on the receiving end of Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson’s game-winning touchdown pass in the closing seconds of the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
He’s so much more than just that one catch though, of course. As an undersized receiver (5’11, 180 lbs), he bears a striking resemblance to the type of wideouts we’ve seen for years now catching balls from Brady in Patriots uniforms. Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola… Hunter Renfrow just seems destined to pick up the slack and assume his place as next-in-line when it comes to the Patriots receiver lineage train.
His game could complement Edelman’s in much the same way that Amendola’s once did. And if Sills is on the outside taking the top off opposing defenses with his speed, that opens up the entire middle of the field for Edelman, Renfrow, and Sternberger on shallow crossing routes – which we all know are Brady’s favorites at this stage of his career anyway.
The signs are obvious, too: Renfrow dreamt recently that he was in a team meeting alongside Brady, and he even autographed a custom-made Patriots jersey at the Clemson spring football game that had his own last name on it.
Clearly this is a marriage made in heaven… we just hope BB feels the same way.
Round 7, Pick 239: Zedrick Woods, S, Ole Miss
Safety might not seem like an important area of need in 2019 for the Patriots considering how stacked they are at the position – Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, Patrick Chung – but all of those players are closer to the end of their careers than they are to the beginning.
McCourty in particular could call it quits as soon as next February (especially if the Pats win another Super Bowl), which would create a massive immediate void in the back of a talented New England secondary. Adderley arriving in the second round of this year’s draft certainly helps, but throwing in another promising player like Zedrick Woods from Mississippi couldn’t hurt either.
Round 7, Pick 243: Aaron Monteiro, OT, Boston College
The Patriots’ offensive line isn’t necessarily an area of need or point of focus in this year’s draft, but it still couldn’t hurt to find someone in the later rounds the team could try and develop into a future starter. For now, the starting linemen look pretty set in 2019: David Andrews at center, Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney at guard, and Marcus Cannon and Isaiah Wynn at tackle.
The wild card in that group is of course Wynn, who was a first-round draft pick last year but missed the entire season with a torn Achilles injury. Assuming he has made a complete recovery and is as talented as the Patriots consider him to be, then Tom Brady’s blindside should be protected and the departure of Trent Brown isn’t as devastating as it could be. Even still, taking a flier on a guy like Monteiro to groom for the future is not a horrible idea.
Round 7, Pick 246: Keaton Sutherland, G, Texas A&M
To echo the point just made, it’s never too early to bolster offensive line depth. Part of the reason the Patriots have been so successful for the past two decades lies in their ability to win the battles in the trenches. Brady is an incredible quarterback who will go down as the best ever to play his position, but he’ll also be the first to tell you that he’s been the beneficiary of playing behind some rock-solid offensive lines.
Just consider the 2015 season, in particular the AFC Championship Game loss to the Denver Broncos at Mile High. The Patriots might have made it to five straight Super Bowls if they could have better protected Brady with the O-line. In short, though adding Sutherland as a backup guard isn’t crucial to the team’s fortunes, it also couldn’t hurt.
Round 7, Pick 252: Shareef Miller, DE, Penn State
The Patriots may likely try to bundle some of these seventh-round picks in a trade for a veteran player from another team’s roster, but if they don’t, they can take a flier on Shareef Miller. The defensive end from Penn State certainly comes from a good football program where he played against strong competition in 2018, so he could challenge for a roster spot in New England… especially considering the team’s need for situational pass-rushers and defensive line depth.