Now that Super Bowl 53 is in the books, it’s time to look ahead and rank the Patriots’ 2019 regular season opponents in order of difficulty.
While we won’t know the exact regular season schedule for 2019 until mid-April at least, we do know which teams the Patriots will face both on the road and at home. We also know that New England will face the second-easiest schedule in the league next season, based off its opponents’ 2018 winning percentages.
What does all this mean exactly?
Well, the path to repeating as Super Bowl champions isn’t easy. It hasn’t been done since the Patriots themselves accomplished the feat after the 2003 and 2004 seasons… which should give some perspective on how difficult it is to repeat as champs, even for a team as dynastically-dominant as the Patriots have been these past two decades.
That all said, New England will have a great opportunity next season. Most Vegas oddsmakers have the Patriots listed with the best odds at winning Super Bowl 54, though some give the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, or New Orleans Saints slightly better odds. It’s worth noting the Chiefs have the fifth-hardest 2019 schedule according to opponent winning percentage, however.
At this point, most experts would agree that it’s just plain foolish to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick guiding the Patriots to the Super Bowl as the AFC’s representative. Whether or not they win the big game might be up for debate, but until proven otherwise, the road to the Super Bowl still goes through New England.
So which opponents on the Patriots’ 2019 schedule should the team be circling? Obviously a lot will change between now and early September when the season finally gets underway – we still have free agency, the draft, training camps, and preseason before then – but it’s worth taking a preliminary look at next year’s opponents and scouting which teams might be more difficult than others.
Let’s start with the easiest matchups first:
16. Miami Dolphins (HOME)
The Miami Dolphins haven’t beaten the Patriots in Foxborough since the infamous Wildcat game way back in 2008. Yes, New England has also gone 5-6 in Miami during that same span, but the Dolphins have lost 10 straight at Gillette. That’s a long, long time for one team to go winless on the road against a division rival they play every year.
There’s little to suggest 2019 will be the season the Dolphins turn it around. Miami’s owner and chairman, Stephen Ross, essentially waved the white flag on next season before it ever began, telling reporters his team was going all-in on a rebuild that could last several years. Even with ex-Patriots defensive guru Brian Flores now the man in charge in Miami, the Fins look primed for one of their worst seasons in history.
Top to bottom, this is a roster with very little talent. The defense lacks any discernible star power, the offense has unreliable and streaky-at-best skill position players, and the starting quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) may not even be on the team come September.
Whenever NFL schedule-makers decide to pit these two familiar foes against one another in New England, one thing is all but guaranteed: the Patriots will come away with a big, fat ‘W.’
15. New York Giants (HOME)
The Patriots and the Giants really don’t like each other.
It goes beyond the whole Boston/New York sports rivalry thing; ask any Patriots fan which Super Bowl loss they could have back, and most will tell you Super Bowl XLII against the Giants. Chowderheads everywhere blame Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin, and the New York Football Giants for quashing their dreams of a perfect 19-0 season.
While the G-Men got the best of the Pats in two separate Super Bowls, not much has gone right for Big Blue since then. Manning’s status as a starting quarterback in the NFL seems to be a matter of daily debate, and there isn’t really a whole lot to like about the rest of the roster around him, either, with two notable exceptions.
Rookie of the Year Saquon Barkly was a bright spot on an otherwise-moribund Giants offense. All Barkley did was rack up over 2,000 all-purpose yards and 15 touchdowns in his first pro season. Indeed, the sky’s the limit for this electrifying player out of Penn State.
Ditto for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr… but with a major caveat. Beckham oozes talent and potential, has game-breaking speed, and arguably possesses the best hands in the entire NFL. He’s also a basket-case more prone to hurting himself in an ill-advised temper tantrum on the sideline than an opposing secondary.
Until and unless this team finds a better quarterback though – or until Tom Brady invites Manning to his personal Fountain of Youth – the Giants remain a disaster on and off the field.
14. New York Jets (HOME)
The Jets finished with the worst record in the division last season at 4-12. It was bad enough to cost Todd Bowles his job as head coach. Thankfully for Jets fans though, the team immediately hired… Adam Gase?
Gase is the same guy who got axed in Miami for letting the Dolphins fall apart to the tune of 4-9 after starting the year 3-0. What New York’s brain trust sees in Gase remains a bit of a mystery, as even the most casual NFL observers were left scratching their heads after the hire was made public.
One fanbase that probably just loved the move was the Patriots, however. After witnessing Gase go 10-6, 6-10, and then 7-9 in his first three seasons with the Dolphins, New Englanders now get to see him flail around with the Jets for a while. It’s sort of reminiscent of what happened with Rex Ryan bouncing from the Jets to the Bills earlier this decade.
Like the Dolphins, the Jets have a real scarcity of talent on their current roster. General manager Mike Maccagnan has his hands full with trying to reshape this team into something competitive. Unlike the Dolphins, though, Maccagnan doesn’t have team ownership admitting out loud that a rebuild might take some time; so the clock is ticking for Gang Green to get their act together.
It might happen eventually… but it won’t happen in Foxborough this fall.
13. Buffalo Bills (HOME)
The Patriots pasted the Jets and the Bills at home last season by a combined score of 62-15. One could easily argue that it was these two wins at the end of the regular season that really served as the springboard for the Patriots’ postseason run all the way to another Super Bowl title.
While both New York and Buffalo stand to improve their rosters with the draft this April, both franchises are very much in the early growing stages of their development. Just as the Jets must hope quarterback Sam Darnold makes a second-year leap in 2019, so too must the Bills pray that quarterback Josh Allen does the same.
Allen was a terrific scrambler as a rookie, running for over 600 yards, eight touchdowns, and a 7.1 yards per attempt average. Those would be great numbers for a rookie running back, but Allen doesn’t play RB. His passing stats were far less impressive, as he completed just over 50% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; that 10-touchdown mark was tied for the 32nd-lowest output in the NFL this season among quarterbacks.
For the Bills to take their next step towards relevancy, both in the division and in the league, they’ll need to see a more accurate, prolific passer than what they saw in 2018. Allen certainly has the arm strength and the raw talent, but whether or not he can be molded into a true franchise signal-caller will determine his team’s fate in 2019.
It’s not hard to imagine the Bills finishing next season as the second-best team in the AFC East behind the Patriots. It’s extremely hard to see them finishing as the best team in the division – and to see them winning in Foxborough, for that matter.
12. Washington Redskins (AWAY)
The Patriots will travel to FedEx Field this fall with a very real opportunity to atone for their struggles on the road in 2018. New England notably went just 3-5 away from Foxborough this season, and while it wasn’t enough ultimately to derail their championship quest, the team knows they’ll most likely need to play a lot better on the road next season if they hope to repeat.
It’s rare for the Patriots to go on the road in the playoffs and win games. To be fair, the Patriots are usually playing at home during the playoffs because they usually have the conference’s best or second-best record at season’s end. But especially with Kansas City’s emergence as a true threat within the conference for years to come (thanks to Patrick Mahomes, the league MVP), it’s never been more important for New England to gun for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Patriots have an easier road schedule this coming season than they did in the one that just ended: they avoid going to Pittsburgh or Kansas City, for starters. They also face just three teams with winning records on the road next year: Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Houston. Their other five road opponents: Miami, Buffalo, New York, Cincinnati, and Washington, all finished 2018 with more losses than wins.
Of that group, Washington looks to be the easiest out next season. The Redskins were a surprise contender for most of September and October last year before Alex Smith’s gruesome leg injury absolutely torpedoed their season. Smith is slowly making his recovery, but whether or not he’ll ever be able to take the field again remains uncertain. Specifically as it relates to the Patriots next season, it would probably take a miracle for him to come back.
So as things stand, Washington is without a capable starting quarterback heading into 2019. That could change via free agency or the draft, but the situation looks pretty bleak for the Redskins currently, which should make a Patriots victory all the easier.
11. Dallas Cowboys (HOME)
When the Patriots take on the Cowboys at Gillette Stadium this fall, the matchup will feature arguably the two most despised teams in all the NFL. Yes, the Raiders and the Ravens have their fair share of detractors as well, but no two football teams curdle the blood of opposing fans more than Dallas and New England.
Jerry Jones stayed the course with head coach Jason Garrett this season, and the move proved wise, as “America’s Team” rebounded from a one-year playoff absence to post a 10-6 record, capture the NFC East, and beat the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card round. Dallas went on to lose to the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round, but that loss looks a bit better now that the Rams made it all the way to Super Bowl 53.
This ranking may raise some eyebrows – particularly if anyone reading roots for the Cowboys – but it feels right when considering the three teams ranked ahead of Dallas the Patriots will face at home next season (Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Cleveland). The only team of that bunch that Cowboys fans might feel insulted by is the Browns, but the gap between Dallas and Cleveland is actually much smaller than many people might imagine.
The Cowboys are a great team, and especially now that their defense is starting to match their offense in terms of elite, cohesive play, the rest of the NFC (and the NFL) should be on notice. For what it’s worth, though, it just doesn’t seem likely that Dak Prescott comes into Gillette Stadium and beats Tom Brady on his own field – especially not if this game is played sometime in November or December.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (HOME)
Steelers fans, like Cowboys fans, have every right to feel insulted by their placement on this countdown list. If you’ve been keeping score at home, you know then that we’re listing three divisional games on the road (Dolphins, Bills, Jets) as more difficult draws for the Patriots than a game against Pittsburgh.
None of this is meant to discredit or disrespect all that Pittsburgh (and Dallas, for that matter) has accomplished as a franchise, both historically and in recent seasons. The fact remains, though, that Pittsburgh is a team in turmoil right now.
Le’Veon Bell missed all of 2018 in order to play for another squad this coming season. Antonio Brown has also demanded out, and now faces domestic assault charges as well. The team’s leading receiver in 2018, JuJu Smith-Schuster, compared the dysfunction of his franchise to the Kardashians. Even former Steelers greats like Hines Ward have had to break their silence and speak out against the current direction of the team’s culture.
With all this in mind, what makes any level-headed person think the Steelers are going to come into Foxborough next season and beat the Patriots?
New England has mostly owned Pittsburgh in the Brady/Roethlisberger era, though Big Ben did get the upper hand this past season at Heinz Field. Without Bell and Brown, though, there’s no logical rationale for why the Steelers should be a better team this fall than they were in 2018 or 2017.
9. New York Jets (AWAY)
Since the start of the 2011 season, the Patriots are 14-2 against the Jets. Those two losses were both on the road, but they both also came in overtime. All in all, this is a bitter rivalry that has recently become rather one-sided since Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez surprised Belichick and Brady in their 2010 season playoff upset win.
We focused on the Jets’ offense and lack of talent at the skill positions when discussing the team’s outlook earlier, so let’s discuss their defense a bit here. New York isn’t without its share of premier players on that side of the ball: defensive end Leonard Williams and safety Jamal Adams immediately come to mind. Both are ascendant players just beginning to tap into their full potential, and they should help keep their team’s defense respectable in 2019 at least.
Beyond them, though, is a work in progress. It’s telling that New York sent just three players to the 2018 Pro Bowl, and two of them were specialists. In fairness, the Patriots only had two Pro Bowlers… though New England did win a championship as a team.
The Jets just aren’t at that level yet, and as expressed earlier, the hire of new head coach Adam Gase doesn’t exactly instill miles of confidence that they’re going to somehow turn the page this coming season. Truthfully, the Jets will rise or fall depending on how much “quarterback whisperer” Gase can get out of young Sam Darnold in his second NFL season.
We’re betting it’s not enough to earn New York its first home win against the Patriots since 2015.
8. Miami Dolphins (AWAY)
The “Miracle in Miami” will forever mean more to Dolphins fans than Patriots fans. Not simply because it resulted in a win for Miami and a loss for New England; also because it came in a season that the Patriots ultimately reached and won the Super Bowl. Any Fins fan who brings up that fateful final play can try to rub it in a New Englander’s face if they want, but the Pats fan need only silently hold up six fingers in rebuttal, and it should be enough to win the argument.
What’s not up for debate is the Patriots’ struggles in Miami. While New England holds +11 and +31 all-time records against division foes New York and Buffalo, respectively, the Dolphins still maintain a +3 all-time series edge over the Patriots.
New England has won just once in their past five visits to Florida. Something about South Beach just seems to give Brady and Belichick the heebie-jeebies, whether it’s the heat, the humidity, the distance traveled, or just plain bad luck (see: Miracle in Miami). Whatever the cause, the Patriots often seem as likely to lose as they are to win when facing the Dolphins at Hard Rock.
You heard it here first though: all that changes in 2019. If all goes according to plan, New England will win twice in Miami next season: first during the regular season, and then a second time in Super Bowl 54 on February 2, 2020.
The Dolphins simply don’t have the roster to contend with the Patriots next season, and Belichick will do whatever it takes to avoid losing to another former assistant/player during the regular season (he lost to Matt Patricia’s Lions and Mike Vrabel’s Titans in 2018).
7. Cincinnati Bengals (AWAY)
The Bengals bungled a surprising 4-1 start in 2018, going just 2-9 the rest of the way en route to a disappointing 6-10 record. A lot of the blame can be placed on the injury bug, which took down star players like Andy Dalton and A.J. Green when both were balling out for Cincinnati. Unfortunately for the team and its fans, this franchise just didn’t have the depth behind them to keep pace with other AFC contenders down the stretch.
Longtime coach Marvin Lewis came to an amicable split with the organization after the season ended, which seems like its best for both sides even if it’s way overdue. Former Rams quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor now takes over the team as its new head coach, and the hiring has been met with mixed reactions around league circles.
Some say he deserves a lot of credit for molding Jared Goff into a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Others say he’s just a poor man’s Sean McVay who got this job solely because of that connection, and because McVay is the latest craze in the NFL these days.
Whatever ends up being the case, the Patriots shouldn’t have too big a problem going into Cincy and picking up a win. Of all New England’s non-divisional away games, this one feels like the easiest behind the Redskins game.
6. Buffalo Bills (AWAY)
The last time the Patriots faced the Bills in Orchard Park, they defeated Buffalo by a final score of 25-6. That might sound like a convincing beatdown, but it actually doesn’t paint the full picture of how that game unfolded.
The score was only 9-3 Patriots at the half. After three quarters, it was still just a one-score game (12-6). If not for a late James White touchdown in the fourth, and then a game-sealing pick-six from Devin McCourty, the Patriots very well might have fallen to the Bills and ended the 2018 season with a 2-6 road record instead of 3-5.
Keep in mind: Josh Allen didn’t start for the Bills because of injury; Derek Anderson did. Anderson was retired and playing golf when he got the phone call to put on his cleats and take the field for Buffalo. It’s fair to assume that this game might have been even more competitive than it already was had Allen been healthy enough to play.
As stated earlier, we expect the Bills to leapfrog the Dolphins and finish the 2019 season as the Patriots’ closest competition in the AFC East. While that doesn’t mean they’re going to usurp New England next year, it could very easily mean a season series split.
5. Cleveland Browns (HOME)
Tom Brady might be 6-1 all-time against the Cleveland Browns, but we’re expecting a closer-than-expected matchup next season when the Dawg Pound comes to Foxborough.
Once the laughingstock of the NFL, the Browns are suddenly one of its hottest teams heading into the offseason. Behind inspired and reinvigorated play from newcomers like Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Jarvis Landry, Myles Garrett, and Denzel Ward, Cleveland has all the look of a young and ascendant power in the AFC. It’s fair to label them a dark horse playoff team in 2019 – after all, they just barely missed the cut in 2018, which would have been inconceivable to many this same time last year.
The Browns have the kind of defense that could give the Patriots fits, particularly with another offseason’s worth of OTAs, minicamps, and training camp coming in Cleveland. Mayfield, in particular, showed remarkable poise as a rookie, legitimately challenging Saquon Barkley for ROY honors down the stretch. For the first time in what feels like forever, there is hope in Cleveland that the team may finally have found its starting quarterback.
We still think that Patriots will win this game, but it should be a lot closer than many would have thought at the beginning of the 2018 season.
4. Houston Texans (AWAY)
Dan Graziano of ESPN has the Houston Texans representing the AFC against the NFC’s New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl 54. Granted, Graziano titles his article “bold predictions” and acknowledges that many of his ideas are way too early to accurately forecast, but still… it should provide the Patriots with something to think about all offseason if they’re interested.
New England defined much of its 2018 run to glory as a prove-it campaign against naysayers and detractors, and it stands to reason they should carry some of that chip-on-the-shoulder attitude over to 2019 if they’re smart. While the “nobody believes in us” mentality might be laughable to everyone else – particularly after winning the Super Bowl – all that matters really is that the Patriots themselves buy into it.
When New England travels to Houston next year, they will find an angry, hungry, determined team waiting for them, most likely. The Texans have been a proverbial punching bag for the Patriots for years now, and head coach Bill O’Brien (formerly Bill Belichick’s offensive coordinator) must be absolutely sick of it at this point.
Houston has all the pieces: ferocious defense, exceptional receivers (when they’re all healthy), dynamic quarterback, experienced and intelligent leadership. If they can shore up their offensive line through free agency, the draft, and better overall coaching, this is a team that can challenge the Titans and the Colts in the AFC South for years to come.
And specific to next year and the matchup against the Patriots, the aforementioned revenge factor cannot be underestimated.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (AWAY)
The last time the Eagles and the Patriots dueled on a football field, we all know what happened. Philadelphia fans may be passionate as all get-out, but they’re also borderline-insufferable, so Bostonians won’t soon forget the end result of Super Bowl LII.
New England travels to Philly at some point next fall, and when it does, it will likely face one of the stiffest tests of its 2019 season. The Eagles followed up their Super Bowl championship season with a 9-7 record, a playoff berth, and one playoff win (over the Chicago Bears) in 2018. There’s no reason to think the team won’t be just as good – if not better – in 2019 with a healthy Carson Wentz back in the fold.
The Patriots have yet to face Wentz on the field – in the Super Bowl and in the preseason last year, their adversary was Nick Foles (the man, the myth, the legend). Foles is almost surely gone – maybe to Jacksonville? – and with him hopefully goes some of the Eagles’ mystique as it pertains to the playoffs and the Patriots, specifically.
Even without St. Nick behind center, Philadelphia represents one of the more challenging obstacles in New England’s path next year to repeating as Super Bowl champs. Doug Pederson’s team is just too talented from top to bottom on both sides of the ball to be counted out against the Patriots, especially since they’ll be playing at home in front of those same raucous fans.
Here’s hoping the rematch of Super Bowl LII ends better for New England this time around.
2. Baltimore Ravens (AWAY)
The good news for New England in 2019? They get to face the Steelers at home.
The bad news for New England in 2019? They get to face the Ravens away.
In what we predict will be the Patriots’ stiffest challenge on the road next season, Tom Brady travels to Baltimore to take on Lamar Jackson and that No. 1 ranked defense.
Many analysts were worried about New England’s chances against Baltimore should the Ravens have beaten the Chargers and advanced to the divisional round in Gillette. Of course now we’ll never know, since Philip Rivers and company dismantled the young Ravens in Baltimore, before summarily getting destroyed themselves by the Pats the following weekend.
The Ravens are always a tough matchup for the Patriots, no matter who’s behind center. Jackson is still young and developing, though he showed real flashes as a rookie in guiding Baltimore back to the postseason. The young twentysomething shares some similarities with Buffalo’s Josh Allen, in that both are tremendous threats with their legs and still works in progress with their arms and decision-making abilities.
The Patriots proved this season that they could win against some of the league’s best defenses – they did so resoundingly against the Chargers, and then again versus the Rams in Super Bowl 53. The Ravens are of a different class, though, and are sure to present Brady and the Patriots with perhaps their greatest challenge in 2019 as far as opposing defenses are concerned.
1. Kansas City Chiefs (HOME)
The Patriots and the Chiefs collided for two of the most memorable games of the 2018 season.
Their first matchup came in Week 6 in Foxborough during Sunday Night Football, a primetime thriller the Pats won 43-40. The rematch then came in Kansas City during the AFC Championship Game, which gave fans another instant classic in a 37-31 overtime New England victory.
Head coach Andy Reid and MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes will no doubt be searching for both redemption and revenge when these two AFC juggernauts do battle a third time in the Brady/Mahomes history. Assuming K.C. can shore up their defense a bit, Chiefs fans should have every reason to like their chances of going into Gillette Stadium and exiting with a victory.
Simply put, Mahomes is both the most talented and the most exciting player in the NFL today. His intangibles are off the charts, his physical tools are unparalleled, and his upside is ridiculous. This is a kid that just threw for more than 50 touchdowns in his first full season as a professional starting quarterback – prior to him doing it, only Brady and Peyton Manning had ever reached that mark, and they each did it just once.
Kansas City and New England are without question the two best teams in the AFC, and both should stay neck-and-neck for most of next season in terms of their records and winning percentages. It will most likely be a fight to the finish to see who emerges as the No. 1 seed for the playoffs… and this game could provide the head-to-head tiebreaker should both clubs finish the season with identical records.