Now that Super Bowl 53 is in the books, which Patriots players should the team try and retain, and which should be allowed to leave in free agency or trades?
The New England Patriots enjoyed an impressive – if not altogether expected or entertaining – triumph over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53. A game many had pegged as a likely shootout to the finish was anything but; instead, fans were “treated” to a low-scoring defensive slugfest between two teams that couldn’t get anything substantial going on offense for most of an hour.
In the end, Patriots fans will take it for what it is: a sixth Super Bowl championship, which ties the franchise with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most all-time in NFL history. Particularly from a defensive and strategic standpoint, New England’s win will probably be studied for years to come by generations of aspiring football coaches, players, and students of the game.
Already though, the tides are changing. A full week hasn’t even passed since the final whistle sounded and the red, white, and blue confetti started to fall, and yet the team has still seen monumental changes.
One of the primary architects of the Patriots’ victory, defensive play-caller Brian Flores, has jumped ship to become the new head coach of the division rival Miami Dolphins. His likely replacement, Greg Schiano, is supposedly going to be announced any day now.
Changes will also come swiftly to the team’s player personnel before long. Whether through trades, releases, or free agency departures, it’s a sure bet that this roster will look very different in no time. If history has taught us anything, it’s that the only downside to winning an NFL championship is seeing the other 31 teams pilfer your talent immediately afterwards.
So which players should the Patriots focus on retaining, and which can they survive without?
Trey Flowers should STAY
Flowers might be the No. 1 priority for the team this offseason. Especially in an NFL market where talented and multidimensional pass-rushers are at a premium, it will be difficult for the Patriots to try and retain him.
The third-year defensive end enters spring as an unrestricted free agent, and the expectation is that he will command a hefty price tag no matter where he ends up signing. At 25 years old, he’s an improving player who might not have even found his peak yet, which speaks volumes to both his potential and his production thus far. Flowers has for the most part been healthy in his first three NFL seasons, and he’s yet to fall below 45 total tackles and 6.5 sacks in a season.
Now, is he anywhere near the level of a Khalil Mack, J.J. Watt, or Aaron Donald? No… at least not yet. The reality of today’s NFL is that pass-rushers get paid for quarterback sacks above all other stats, and Flowers has never had more than 7.5 in a season.
Most coaches would like to see at least double-digit production in that key metric, but Flowers might be given a bit of a pass due to his playing for Belichick in New England. The Patriots have historically never prioritized rushing the passer as much as some other teams around the league, instead focusing on players with the versatility to do multiple things well, rather than just one thing superbly well.
Yes, Flowers can probably cash in with a bigger payday somewhere else; it’s hard to envision Belichick ponying up the kind of lucrative contract other teams desperate for defensive help might throw at him. Still, the marriage between the Patriots and Flowers shouldn’t be underestimated by other side as the offseason gets underway. New England shouldn’t go cheap with him, and Flowers should heavily consider staying if the Pats’ offer is anywhere close to their competitors’ offers.
Chris Hogan should GO
The purpose of this exercise is to evaluate players as objectively as Bill Belichick would. That’s why it’s crucial not to let emotions or subjective feelings get in the way of hard truths when it comes to the Patriots’ roster, many of whom are considered fan favorites and even bonafide legends in the New England area now.
Hogan is a perfect example. Fans won’t soon forget his spectacular one-handed catch in the AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs this season. And in case anyone’s forgotten his epic performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers two years ago in that AFC Championship Game, here’s a reminder of what he did that day: nine catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns.
The ex-Buffalo Bill has done everything Belichick and the Patriots have asked of him since coming over before the 2016 season. Still, it might not be enough to justify keeping the unrestricted free agent around for another year… at least not at his current price tag of around $4 million a year.
Hogan is a similar player to Danny Amendola, who left New England last offseason after five productive years. While Amendola repeatedly came up clutch in the postseason in some of the biggest moments and situations, he never really factored in to the team’s success or failures during the regular season.
Hogan has largely been more available and healthy during the year than Amendola ever was, but he shares that same knack of disappearing for lengthy stretches of time, leading some fans and analysts to wonder just how valuable he actually is to the offense.
New England’s receiver situation is as murky and undefined as ever – particularly after everyone not named Julian Edelman vanished during Super Bowl 53 – but the team showed this season how capable they are of winning games with a hodgepodge group of revolving players at the position. The Patriots can move on from Hogan if he wants anything more than what he’s currently making, and won’t miss a beat without him.
Trent Brown should STAY
The Patriots essentially took a flier on Brown when they traded the 95th selection in last year’s draft to the San Francisco 49ers for the 143rd selection and Brown. The 6’8″ tackle, weighing a whopping 380 lbs, had mostly been unremarkable during his time in the Bay Area, and was considered expendable enough that the team jettisoned him even after signing their new franchise quarterback Jimmy Garropolo to a massive contract extension.
How often do you see a team commit that kind of money to their quarterback and then exile his blindside protector?
It almost never happens, but clearly Bill Belichick and the Patriots recognized the potential in Brown when they scooped him up in that trade. The return on their investment was substantial: Brown started all 16 games for the Patriots at left tackle – after playing right tackle during his time in San Fransisco – and finished the year as ProFootballFocus’ 37th-ranked tackle.
That might not sound too impressive initially, but considering his role on a Patriots’ offensive line that just allowed only one sack across three straight playoff victories over the Chargers, Chiefs, and Rams, it speaks volumes to Brown’s value on this squad.
Add in the fact that Isaiah Wynn, the player drafted originally to replace Nate Solder at left tackle, just missed all of last season with an Achilles injury, and it should be a no-brainer that the Patriots try and keep Brown around for at least one more season while Wynn continues to heal and develop.
Dwayne Allen should GO
When the Patriots traded for Allen back in March 2017, they presumably imagined him slotting in alongside Rob Gronkowski to form a formidable 1-2 punch at tight end. After all, Belichick was the original pioneer behind using two tight ends to dictate mismatches against opposing defenses: he did it with Gronk and Aaron Hernandez most successfully, before trying to replicate some of those results with other players like Alge Crumpler, Tim Wright, Martellus Bennett, Scott Chandler, etc.
Allen was never quite sensational during his five years with the Indianapolis Colts, but the hope was that in coming to New England, he could spell Gronkowski, while also proving himself a reliable run-blocker and red-zone receiving threat.
The results thus far have been underwhelming to say the least.
In two years with the Patriots, Allen has yet to crack the 100-yard plateau for the entire season. He had just one touchdown catch in 2017, and had zero this past season. His ability as a blocker has been adequate, but unless Gronkowski decides he does want to retire from football this offseason, the Patriots already have a tight end that can run-block as good as anyone.
Allen isn’t a free agent this spring, but he does carry with him a $7.3 million cap hit, which is the seventh-highest total among all players on New England’s roster. All the names above him on the list for cap casualty make sense: Tom Brady, Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Dont’a Hightower, and Marcus Cannon. Then there’s Allen, who as good of a teammate as he’s been for two years, just hasn’t produced anywhere near the level expected of him when he came over from Indy.
The Patriots should either release or try to trade Allen (provided Gronkowski decides to return in 2019), then try to find a more athletic receiving tight end to replace him in either the draft or free agency.
Stephen Gostkowski should STAY
Yes, he’s missed some critical field goals and extra point attempts in the Super Bowl and playoffs.
Yes, he’s also getting older (35) and he might not be quite as accurate as he once was.
And yes, he’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason who is sure to have plenty of suitors.
Still, the Patriots should try and extend Gostkowski to a new contract if they can. The veteran kicker is not only the all-time leader in Patriots’ field goals; he’s also their all-time leader in points scored, surpassing Adam Vinatieri in both categories.
While Bill Belichick isn’t about to dish out a new contract just based off a player’s lifetime achievements and accolades, he no doubt understands and appreciates that reliable kickers with postseason experience and the all-important “clutch gene” don’t just grow on trees.
Similar to how the Colts managed to transition from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck with relative ease at the quarterback position, the Patriots are fortunate they went from Adam Vinatieri to Stephen Gostkowski at placekicker. Not every team is so lucky with their field goal kickers (just ask the Chicago Bears this season).
Especially when considering the lack of available talent on the market this spring, the Patriots should try and lock up Gostkowski, while perhaps adding a new young heir apparent in the later rounds of the draft this April. That way they maintain consistency at a position that shouldn’t be tinkered with, while still grooming a future replacement should Gostkowski show signs of declining skills/diminishing returns.