What are the most important games, outcomes, and scenarios New England Patriots fans should keep an eye on this week?
The Patriots limp into the final two weeks of the season, as healthy as they’ve been all year, but with more questions than ever surrounding the team’s mettle and moxie. Not much has gone right for Bill Belichick’s men since that six-game win streak in the middle of the season.
It started with a 24-point loss to the Tennessee Titans. That sentence in and of itself would seem painful enough, but matters were made worse by the number of ex-Pats on that Titans team: Dion Lewis, Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, and of course head coach Mike Vrabel himself. The double-digit beatdown hurt on a personal level in addition to the scoreboard.
The New England offense sputtered in its next two games, and didn’t break the 30-point threshold again until Week 14 in Miami. Unfortunately for New England, this happened, and all that scoring was for naught.
Last week, the Patriots tried to redeem themselves against their old familiar punching-bag, the Pittsburgh Steelers. That didn’t work either.
Dropped to 9-5, the mood in the Northeast was already somber when news broke that Josh Gordon would be leaving the team to focus on his mental health and to grapple with another indefinite league suspension.
So here we are at Week 16, and the Patriots stand at a crossroads. Clearly they need to generate some momentum and positive energy as they creep toward the playoffs.
First priority is beating the Buffalo Bills. But what other important storylines should New England faithful be keeping an eye on this week around the NFL?
5. Baltimore winning over the Chargers would drop L.A. to 11-4.
Let’s just start by acknowledging what a long-shot this particular scenario is.
The Baltimore Ravens head west to take on the mighty Los Angeles Chargers, the team that just shocked No. 1 seed Kansas City… in Kansas City.
Make no mistake, the Chargers could very well end up as one of the strongest wild card teams in recent memory. They are very, very good, and will be a hard out for any team this season, whether the game is played in L.A. or not.
Somewhat surprisingly, Baltimore is just a four-point road underdog in this contest. The Ravens have been coming on strong of late, but they’re still vastly inferior to the Chargers on paper, and probably will be on the field tonight too.
If John Harbaugh, recipient of a nice new contract extension, can squeeze out a win over Philip Rivers and company, it will drop the Chargers to 11-4 on the season. They would then travel to Denver in Week 17 to finish up their season.
Lose there, and the Bolts are suddenly 11-5… potentially the same record as the Patriots, assuming New England beats Buffalo and New York to close the season.
It might be highly unlikely, but it’s possible the No. 1 seed would then come down to Los Angeles and New England, and if it did, the Patriots would own all the right tiebreakers to jump the Chargers for the top seed.
Of course, they’d also need another AFC heavyweight to lose their last two, which brings us to…
4. The Chiefs find a house of horrors waiting for them in Washington.
The Miami Miracle continues to plague the Patriots.
If only they’d managed to hold on at the end of that game, they could have still lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh and potentially finished the season at 12-4. Not their best record ever, but certainly their most familiar.
Significantly, it would have allowed New England to leapfrog Kansas City for the No. 1 seed if the Chiefs lost their primetime matchup this week against the Seahawks.
Winning in Seattle is never easy. It’s renowned as one of the loudest, toughest venues to play in, with all the intensity and mystique surrounding the “12th Man” home-field advantage. As of this writing, the Chiefs are less than a field goal favorite to beat the Seahawks, a team with three less wins on their 2018 resume… that’s how good Seattle is at home.
Pete Carroll’s troops have everything to play for as they fight for a wild card spot in the crowded NFC. Assuming they manage to knock off the Chiefs, Kansas City would need to lose their season finale against Oakland in order to finish with an 11-5 record.
If that happens, and the Chargers lose out, and the Patriots win out, New England takes the No. 1 seed.
Again, unlikely… but it could happen.
3. The Steelers are just half a game behind the Patriots in the AFC.
Climbing further up the AFC ladder is awesome; falling further down it is not.
The loss to the Steelers was damaging to more than just New England spirits. It also brought Pittsburgh within half a game of passing the Patriots in the conference pecking order.
If the Steelers won out and the Pats slipped again – be it against Buffalo or against New York – Pittsburgh would claim the No. 3 seed on a superior overall record (10-5-1 compared to 10-6).
That nightmarish scenario would translate to New England probably hosting the dangerous Chargers in the Wild Card Round, an outcome no one wants to see except greedy television executives.
Better to keep the Steelers where they’re supposed to be: safely behind New England in the No. 4 or even the No. 6 slot. If there is a rematch, let it happen in Foxborough this time.
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints can help take care of that with a win over the Steelers on Sunday.
2. If New England wants their bye back, then the Eagles need to win.
Many Patriots fans still haven’t forgotten or forgiven Eagles fans for the incessant amount of gloating that accompanied Philadelphia’s win over New England in last year’s Super Bowl.
It’s as if Philly fans suddenly forgot the head-to-record record on the game’s greatest stage is now even at 1-1 between these two historic franchises.
No matter. Nick Foles can atone for the Philly Special on Sunday by killing two birds with one stone: a win over the Houston Texans not only improves his own team’s playoff chances, but it also vaults the Patriots back into the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Currently, the Texans boast a 10-4 record. Should that number drop to 10-5 and the Patriots take care of business at home against the Bills, both teams would have identical records. New England wins the tiebreaker though due to their Week 1 victory over the Texans at Gillette.
If the fifth and fourth scenarios listed above were the most unlikely, this scenario is probably the most likely, along with the third scenario just listed. Nothing would make New Englanders more happy than a win over Buffalo coupled with losses by the Steelers and the Texans to the Saints and Eagles, respectively.
Nothing, that is, except to see a division rival fall while guaranteeing the Pats a playoff berth and AFC East championship in doing so… which would happen if:
1. NE could lose to Buffalo and still win the division with a Miami loss.
Look, if the Patriots lose at home to the Bills, there’s really no point to analyzing all these scenarios and outcomes. If they lose to the Bills, they don’t deserve to go to the playoffs this season. Period.
Crazy as it sounds though, they could lose to the Bills and still wrap up their 10th straight division championship if Miami loses at home to Jacksonville.
As mediocre as the Dolphins have been in 2018, it’d be a shocker to see them come up empty against the lowly 4-10 Jaguars, especially since their postseason hopes hang in the balance. They can’t afford a loss if either the Ravens, Titans, or Colts win this week, so they’ll be fighting for their playoff lives this Sunday down in Florida.
But if the Dolphins lose, it officially gift-wraps the AFC East trophy for the Patriots… and just in time for the holidays.