With the NFL Draft getting closer, who will the New England Patriots look to draft when the day comes?
The New England Patriots shook up the NFL by trading their leading receiver, Brandin Cooks, to the Los Angeles Rams in exchange for the number 23 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
For the Patriots, it is a clear sign that–after practically sitting out the 2017 NFL Draft–they are all in on an influx of talent in this year’s draft. New England recouped the first round draft pick they sent to New Orleans last year and the Patriots now have two first round picks and two second round picks thanks to the Jimmy Garoppolo trade to San Francisco.
With picks number 23 and 31 overall in the first round and number 43 and 63 overall in the second round, the Patriots are in position to move up and down the board on draft day. Add in the number 95 overall pick in the third round and the Patriots will have five picks in the first 100 selections. They also have two sixth round selections and a seventh round pick.
There are a lot of opinions in the media about what the Patriots will do with their picks including trade them for Odell Beckham Jr. (ludicrous and makes no sense), move up into the top ten picks of the draft (which is also extremely far-fetched), or move down and accumulate a plethora of draft picks in the middle rounds (which has been done numerous times).
Let me add one more opinion on what the New England Patriots are likely to do with their early picks. But before getting to that, let’s go back in time and look at the times Bill Belichick made two first round draft picks.
2012 NFL DRAFT:
The last time the Patriots made two first round draft picks was in 2012. That year they traded up twice in the first round moving from number 27 to number 21 (leapfrogging the New York Jets) and sending Cincinnati a third round pick to snag edge rusher Chandler Jones. They then moved from number 31 overall to number 25 sending a fourth round draft pick to the Denver Broncos to grab linebacker Dont’a Hightower.
Jones was a starter from day one and had four highly productive seasons in New England compiling 36 sacks. With the cost of edge rushers skyrocketing, Belichick traded Jones to Arizona where he has compiled 28 sacks in two seasons and was re-signed by the Cardinals making him one of the highest paid edge rushers in the NFL.
Hightower also has been an impact player in New England since his rookie season. Hightower got a rare second contract in free agency with the Patriots last offseason and is used in a variety of ways on defense. Hightower has struggled with injuries and has not played all 16 games since 2013. Last year he played just five games and his absence was a key loss.
2004 NFL DRAFT:
The other time with two first round draft picks in the Bill Belichick era was in 2004. Coming off their second Super Bowl championship in three years, the team drafted nose tackle Vince Wilfork at number 21 overall and tight end Ben Watson with the last pick of the first round. Wilfork was a starter for ten seasons in New England and Watson was in New England for six seasons (and is entering his 14th season in 2018 having signed for a second tour in New Orleans).
RECENT HIGH DRAFT PICKS:
New England is most comfortable spending high draft picks on defense in recent history. Their last two first round draft picks were in 2015 and 2014 and both picks were on defensive linemen: Malcom Brown and Dominique Easley. In 2015 they also doubled-up on edge rushers grabbing Geneo Grissom and Trey Flowers within four picks of each other at the end of the third and beginning of the fourth round.
Last year two of their top three picks were edge rushers as they grabbed Derek Rivers at number 83 overall and Deatrich Wise Jr. in the fourth round. In 2016 New England grabbed nose tackle Vincent Valentine in the third round. In 2013 their top pick was linebacker Jamie Collins and 2012 was Jones and Hightower in the front seven (as well as bust defensive end Jake Bequette in the third round).
The 2011 NFL Draft was the outlier where New England did not go heavy with their top picks. Remember, the 2009 through 2012 teams were desperate for help in the secondary as the Hall-of-Fame talent of the defense at cornerback (Ty Law) and safety (Rodney Harrison) and significant contributors (Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson, Ellis Hobbs, James Sanders, and Brandon Meriweather) began to be replaced. That year the Patriots added Devin McCourty and Rob Gronkowski with their top two selections and then went edge rusher (Jermaine Cunningham) and inside linebacker (Brandon Spikes).
New England has also gone after big bodies on the other side of the ball in recent years. Offensive tackle Antonio Garcia was taken at number 85 overall last year. In 2016 it was starting left guard Joe Thuney with their first pick of the third round. Starting right guard Shaq Mason came from the 2015 draft taken in the fourth round (along with guard Tre’ Jackson). In 2014 the Patriots spent two fourth round draft picks on linemen grabbing center Bryan Stork and tackle Cameron Fleming. Finally, in 2011 the Patriots grabbed tackle Nate Solder with their first round draft pick.
2018 DRAFT TARGETS:
Based on the history of Bill Belichick’s drafting profile, unless it is an outlier season, he is likely focusing on the defensive line and front seven on defense and offensive line. They have needs for another edge rusher despite adding Adrian Clayborn in free agency and having picked Rivers and Wise recently. Losing Nate Solder in free agency screams for more tackle help on the offensive line with Garcia having missed all of last season and presumptive starters Marcus Cannon and LaAdrian Waddle both coming off an injury-filled 2017 season.
New England traded away promising back-up quarterback last season to San Francisco. This opens up the need for a developmental quarterback with Tom Brady turning 41 years old in training camp. The Patriots lost running back Dion Lewis to free agency and have yet to adequately address the depth and talent at the edge rusher position after Rob Ninkovich retired and Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard left in free agency prior to the 2017 season.
Although New England traded for cornerback Jason McCourty to replace Malcolm Butler, with 2016 second round draft pick Cyrus Jones and Jonathan Jones both coming back from injury there is a need for quality depth. With inside linebacker Dont’a Hightower again having an injury-plagued season in 2017, the need for depth at inside linebacker is a must.
QUARTERBACK:
The last time the New England Patriots selected a quarterback in the first three rounds of the draft they seemingly struck gold nabbing Jimmy Garoppolo at the end of the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft. However, quarterback Tom Brady has risen to the pressure of Garoppolo pushing him and elevated his game winning two Super Bowls and throwing for over 500 yards in a losing effort to the Eagles in February.
With two first round draft picks and two second round picks the Patriots have the ammunition to move up to around pick ten if they choose, but it seem a very unlikely trade for Bill Belichick to make. The top four quarterbacks should be long gone by the time New England is on the clock.
At the end of the first round or beginning of the second round, the Patriots may be in play for Lamar Jackson of Louisville or Mason Rudolph of Oklahoma State. Both quarterbacks have terrific upside and make sense for New England. Pick number 31 may be the choice for a quarterback as the Patriots will have a reasonable fifth-year option to exercise on the contract that they would not have with a second round pick.
If New England waits they could still take a chanced on small school Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, Toledo’s Logan Woodside or Washington’s Luke Falk in the third round. All three have strengths and noticeable weaknesses, but all three should have a year or two to “redshirt” behind Brady and back-up quarterback Brian Hoyer.
OFFENSIVE TACKLE:
With the extended use of the spread offense in college football it becomes harder and harder to project tackles and offensive linemen coming out of the draft. The position is basically a crap shoot as teams are getting players who have not blocked for NFL style offenses.
It became obvious after the 2013 NFL Draft that an offensive tackle is not the safest high draft pick. In 2013 Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel went number one and number two in the draft and both were busts. Ereck Flowers was picked number nine overall in 2015 by the New York Giants (instead of Todd Gurley who went to the Rams at ten overall) and has been one of the worst tackles in the NFL necessitating the Giants overpaying for Nate Solder this offseason.
A first round talents such as Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey will likely be long gone by the time the Patriots are on the clock. Look for players like Kolton Miller from UCLA, Oregon’s Tyrell Crosby, NFL Scouting Combine loser Orlando Brown to be available at the end of the first round or in the second round for New England to jump on. Austin Corbett and Martinas Rankin (third round) are developmental tackles New England could grab with an eye towards 2019.
EDGE RUSHER:
New England has a spotty history with edge rushers in the draft in the Bill Belichick era.
In the 2018 NFL Draft there are a number of edge rushers likely available in the first three rounds. Derek Rivers (third round 2017) was on injured reserve all season and Deatrich Wise Jr. (fourth round 2017) flashed some pass rushing skills as a third down pass rusher. Trey Flowers (fourth round 2015) was a home run after a rookie season lost to injury while Geneo Grissom (third round 2015) has been a dud.
The 2012 NFL Draft yielded Pro Bowl edge rusher Chandler Jones (first round) and wasted draft pick Jake Bequette (third round). The 2010 NFL Draft yielded bust Jermaine Cunningham taken one spot ahead of college teammate and two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Carlos Dunlap.
New England will miss out on the dynamic Bradley Chubb of NC State, Virginia Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds, Roquan Smith of Georgia and probably Marcus Davenport of UTSA by the time they are on the clock. LSU’s Arden Key and Ohio State’s Sam Hubbard is a possibility along with Boston College’s Harold Landry are possibilities at the end of the first round
INSIDE LINEBACKER:
The Patriots missed Dont’a Hightower last season after he went down for the year. While Kyle Van Noy filled in admirably, the defense would have been much better against the run and on early downs with both on the field. Behind the two, there is no depth: Marquis Flowers is only effective in the dime defense and Elandon Roberts allows way too many big plays.
A third inside linebacker is a must. Having another option inside allows Hightower to move around (when healthy) and play more on the edge and contribute with big plays (think his strip-sack in Super Bowl 52).
The best linebacker prospect is Georgia’s Roquan Smith–the only problem is where to play him because he can rush the passer, cover in the passing game, and run sideline to sideline (think Deion Jones in Atlanta). A step below him is Rashaan Evans of Alabama and Boise State’s Leighton Vander Esch.
Both would be a fit in New England and with a shortage of linebacker prospects both are being talked about as potential first round draft picks. Vander Esch is bigger (which Bill Belichick tends to like) but either would be an upgrade in New England. After these initial three there are no other inside linebackers I see with the potential to be a significant contributor.
CORNERBACK:
New England last spent a high draft pick on a cornerback in 2016 when they selected Cyrus Jones out of Alabama with their second round draft pick. Like the last cornerback they took in the second round–Ras-I Dowling in 2011–Jones has contributed little as injuries and ineffectiveness have held him back.
With Malcolm Butler out the door, the Patriots already traded for Jason McCourty.
Top cornerbacks Denzel Ward from Ohio State and Joshua Jackson from Iowa will be long gone by when the Patriots are on the clock at number 23 overall. UCF’s Mike Hughes is a potential fit in a Malcolm Butler role covering in the slot and smaller receivers on the outside. LSU’s Donte Jackson fits that mold as well and should be around as a late first round/early second round pick.
In the second round the Patriots could go big at cornerback (sorry, Eric Rowe) and grab Auburn’s Carlton Davis or Colorado’s Isaiah Oliver. Both are long armed, aggressive press-man corners that would be a great fit across from Stephon Gilmore with some improved technique. Both would fit well in New England and be excellent value in the second round.
RUNNING BACK:
New England has had great fortune picking running backs in the middle rounds. In 2014 they snagged Super Bowl 51 hero James White with a fourth round pick. He has developed in to a steady contributor on third down and in the passing game. In 2011 they picked 1,000 yard rusher Stevan Ridley in round three and third down back Shane Vereen (one of the unsung stars of Super Bowl 49) in the second round.
In the 2018 NFL Draft there are a number of running backs likely available in the second and third rounds. There’s a chance Sony Michel of Georgia could be available early in the second round. His teammate Nick Chubb is expected to go off the board at the same time. Chubb is a pure rusher with little receiving skill; Michel can catch the ball and could be off the board at the end of the first round.
Derrius Guice of LSU and Kerryon Johnson are both quick, downhill rushers. Both are expected to be around in the second and third round. A sleeper to watch in that range is San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny. He has surprising speed for a big back and has soft hands. He could be targeted with New England’s later second round draft pick as he could be a developmental running back for 2019.