As playoff team in 2016, the Miami Dolphins are the main competition for the New England Patriots in the AFC East. Here are five reasons why they won’t win it.
The New England Patriots have been on a historic run since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won their first AFC East division crown and Super Bowl in 2001. Since then New England has won the AFC East for 14 of the past 16 seasons. The only hiccups were 2002 (a post-Super Bowl letdown) and 2008 (Brady missed 15 and ¾ games). Even in those two seasons the Patriots tied for the division lead in wins and missed the playoffs based on tie-breakers.
The AFC East teams have made runs at the Patriots with the Dolphins and Jets trading ten win seasons in 2003 and 2004 and the Jets winning ten games again in 2006. In 2009 and 2010 the Jets made their mini-run with Rex Ryan. In 2014 the Buffalo Bills seemed on the upswing, in 2015 it was the Jets seeming to break out, and last year was the Miami Dolphins.
While the Bills and Jets before them broke down the next season and slid back to .500 and below, the Dolphins are trying to buck that trend in 2017. The Patriots have a lot to fear from Miami as they advanced to the playoffs before falling in the Wild Card round behind young superstars on offense Jay Ajayi and Jarvis Landry.
Just 23, Ajayi exploded on the scene in 2016 rushing for 1,272 yards and a 4.9 average (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). A 2015 fifth-round draft pick from Boise State who fell due to concerns about his knee, Ajayi put those concerns behind him as he doled out the punishment between the white lines to defensive players trying to take him down.
Landry was overlooked coming out of LSU due to teammate Odell Beckham Jr. garnering most of the attention. All Landry has done since being picked one spot after Jimmy Garoppolo is snag 288 catches in his first three season in the NFL. He has improved each season increasing his yards per reception from 9.0 to 10.5 to 12.1 last season. Landry has emerged as one of the best slot receivers in the NFL.
On defense, the Dolphins had a resurgent Kiko Alonso at linebacker, ageless wonder Cameron Wake bringing the pass rush and All Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh stuffing ball-carriers in the middle of the defensive line. In the 2017 NFL Draft, the Dolphins snagged two defensive stalwarts with pass rusher Charles Harris of Missouri in the first round and linebacker Raekwon McMillan of Ohio State.
Despite these great players on the roster, the Dolphins are due for a downswing in 2017. Just like the 2014 Bills and 2015 Jets, tough times are coming for Miami in their attempt to knock-off New England. Here are five reasons why the Dolphins will not even make the playoffs, let alone knock the Patriots off the top of the AFC East
Schedule:
Quick, name one big win over a winning team by Miami last season on their way to the playoffs? Can anyone name just one? If anyone answered week six against a Pittsburgh Steelers team starting a four-game losing streak kudos for the great memory. Just like the New York Jets winning ten games in 2015, the Dolphins feasted on a cupcake schedule in 2016.
Here are their ten wins for the Dolphins in 2016: Cleveland in overtime (1-15), Pittsburgh (11-5), Buffalo twice–including once in overtime (7-9), New York Jets twice (5-11), Arizona (7-8-1), San Francisco (2-14), Los Angeles Rams (4-12), and San Diego (5-11). Miami lost to the Patriots twice, the Seahawks, the Bengals, the Titans, the Ravens and the Steelers in the playoffs.
This year the Dolphins have a number of winning teams on their schedule as they play a second place schedule and the NFC South and AFC West–both strong divisions. In addition to the Bills and Jets, the Dolphins travel to face the strong offense of the Los Angeles Chargers, the NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons, the Baltimore Ravens (who spanked Miami 38-6 last season), Cam Newton and the 2015 NFC Champion Carolina Panthers (in a prime time Monday night game), the always dangerous Kansas City Chiefs and the Patriots.
At home beyond the Jets and Bills, Miami faces the up-and-coming Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans, the improving New Orleans Saints, the Oakland Raiders, the Denver Broncos, and the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots. Even penciling in Miami as 4-0 against the Jets and Bills (never a sure thing), it is hard to see Miami winning six of these games with the level of competition.
Another point to consider is that Miami was a rare playoff team who finished the season having been outscored by their opponents over the season. The Dolphins scored 363 points while allowing 380 for the season. That is not a 10-6 season, that is a 7-9 team with extraordinary luck and an easy schedule.
Ryan Tannehill:
Miami has invested a significant amount of money in quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill was handed a four-year, $77 million contract extension through 2020 in 2015 and guarantees him $45 million dollars. For that kind of investment, the Dolphins should expect more than an offense that finished 26th in the NFL in passing yards.
Miami spent a first-round draft pick on Tannehill in 2012 and invested a first-round pick in 2014 and 2016 on offensive tackles to protect him. Miami spent another first-round draft pick on wide receiver DeVante Parker in 2015 and re-signed Kenny Stills this offseason to a four-year contract worth $32 million with almost $20 million guaranteed.
Tannehill has spent five years as the starter in Miami and is turning 29-years-old this season. Tannehill has overcome his initial struggles to become an above-average quarterback at a level of productivity in the range of Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. Tannehill has completed over 62% of his passes only twice and topped 4,000 yards passing twice.
Last season Tannehill missed the final three games of the season with a knee injury and back-up Matt Moore stepped in without missing a beat. Whether Moore’s success was a success of the coaching staff having him ready or an indictment of Tannehill remains to be soon.
The bottom line is heading into season six Tannehill has yet to win eight games in a season or start a playoff game. His career passer rating is just 86.5 and despite the investment in players around him the Dolphins have failed to take the next step on offense. With minimal moves on offense in free agency and the draft, there is little reason to believe Tannehill is going to take a huge step forward in year six.
Offensive Line:
Miami has been struggling to find consistency with their offensive line this entire decade. There is a transition again as left tackle Branden Albert was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars in a salary dump. ProFootballFocus.com rated the Dolphins as the third-worst offensive line in the league. This was after they spent almost $30 million to the line with three first-round draft picks and two former left tackles starting at the guard spots all season.
Miami’s solution was to cross their fingers and hope everything works out with basically the same cast. Center Mike Pouncey has been struggling with injuries but the three-time Pro Bowl selection will be 28 when training camp begins. He has not played sixteen games since his second season in the league in 2012. He had a stem cell procedure this offseason for his hip and his readiness to start the season is in question.
Former first-round draft picks Ja’Wuan James is a solid if unspectacular right tackle, very good in the running game but pushed around in the passing game. James was drafted to play left tackle but has resisted the move repeatedly and is locked in at right tackle. Laremy Tunsil moves from guard to left tackle in his second season. Tunsil was very good in pass blocking playing guard last season but struggles in the running game.
Miami imported former left tackle Jermon Bushrod to start at guard and the 32-year-old was abysmal in 2016. With no better options, the Dolphins are planning to line him up as a starter again. With Tunsil at tackle, the Dolphins signed Ted Larsen from the scrap heap. Larsen will compete with fifth-round draft pick Isaac Asiata and career backup Kraig Urbik.
Miami did not have a very good offensive line last year and now have to hope that Pouncey stays healthy, Tunsil steps in at left tackle and keeps his quarterback upright, and the mess at guard sorting itself out with some semblance of blocking ability in the trenches. Asiata may be a steal in the fifth-round, but the Dolphins may not have time to wait for him to develop with their lack of talent at guard.
Weak Linebackers:
Miami’s defensive coordinator in 2016 Vance Joseph left Miami to take the head coach job in Denver and linebacker coach Matt Burke stepped in as defensive coordinator in Miami. Burke has never been a coordinator at any level–always a sign of a defense due to take a step backwards. Burke is an interesting hire as his linebacker unit was not a strength in his only season in Miami.
The Dolphins were fortunate to get a full season last season from linebacker Kiko Alonso after trading for him in the offseason. Alonso had started one game over the two previous seasons after a stellar rookie season in Buffalo. While Alonso is their best tackler and athletic, his health situation means that Miami needs depth behind him.
Miami gave up over 2,200 yards on the ground last season despite the highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL, a promising young tackle in Jordan Phillips and solid defensive ends. Finishing 30th of 32 teams in rushing yards allowed and a gaudy 4.8 yards per attempt points the finger at the linebackers. This was a position in need of serious attention.
Miami did add a linebacker in Raekwon McMillan in the second round. Miami grabbed the Ohio State product in the second round as he slid on draft day. McMillan is strong tackler and flashed good instincts but lacks athleticism and big-play ability. His lack of lateral movement and ability to get off blocks devalued him in the draft.
Miami spent in free agency to bring in Lawrence Timmons from Pittsburgh once the Steelers determined he was washed up. For the Patriots, Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett feasted on Timmons trying to cover them the past few seasons as age robbed him of his athleticism. The prospect of seeing him twice this year should have Gronkowski licking his lips in anticipation of the matchup.
Koa Misi was to be the third starter and injuries limited him to just three games. Misi is an average linebacker and is approaching age 30. Jelani Jenkins stepped in last year but he left for Oakland this offseason Behind this group of a rookie and aging and injury-prone starters Miami has a trio of replacement level players who have no business starting in Neville Hewitt, Spencer Paysinger, and Donald Butler.
The linebacker group in Miami is held together with bailing wire and hope. McMillan needs to adjust to the speed of the game and Timmons’ best days are past him. Alonso and Misi are unlikely to play 16 games and there is little quality depth behind them. The linebackers hurt the Dolphins last year and look to hold back the defense again in 2017.
Suspect Secondary:
The Dolphins’ were a league-average pass defense last season finishing 15th in yards allowed although only seven other teams allowed more passing touchdowns. A big part of the problem was the cornerbacks and the rest of the secondary.
At cornerback, in 2016 the Dolphins leaned on veteran Byron Maxwell who was acquired via trade. Maxwell was adequate, which is not what most teams are looking for from a highly paid number one cornerback but that made him the best cornerback by far on the roster.
A pair of fifth-round draft picks in 2015, Bobby McCain and Tony Lippett were called on to start and contribute. Lippett showed off athleticism as a developmental cornerback but by the end of the season his flaws were exposed and offenses were targeting him in coverage at every opportunity. McCain is a decent nickel cornerback who struggles when forced to play outside.
Xavien Howard is another young cornerback who flashed talent but his technique needs a lot of work. Miami added Cordrea Tankersley from Clemson in the third round in the 2017 NFL Draft. Tankersley is long and lean with surprising speed. He dropped in the draft due to lack of instinct and ball tracking which led to holding penalties and pass interference. Tankersley needs a year to add muscle and improve his techniques. He is a potential diamond in the rough but needs time to be ready to contribute.
Miami was blessed with two excellent safeties last season with Reshad Jones and free agent find Isa Abdul-Quddus. Unfortunately, Jones lasted just six games before a rotator cuff injury shut him down for the season. Abdul-Quddus picked up the slack before a serious neck injury shut him down at the end of the season and eventually ended his career.
Jones should be back to full strength for 2017 and that is great news for Miami. Unfortunately, free agent Nate Allen and holdovers Michael Thomas and Walt Aikens are a big step back from Abdul-Quddus. The Dolphins signed the talented and big-hitting T.J. McDonald from the Rams, but he comes with a caveat: he is suspended the first eight games of the season.
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The Dolphins had a mediocre secondary in 2016 which was a big part of the defense being 29th in the NFL in yards allowed. The Dolphins are counting on the new defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach Lou Anarumo to get more from a group that is limited.