The New England Patriots may have had their season ended prematurely with a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game but the front office is already deep into their offseason planning. As Super Bowl 50 takes the headlines nationally, Bill Belichick and his team of coaches and front office are getting ready for free agency and the NFL Draft.
Beyond scouting potential free agents and draft picks, the Patriots have internal scouting to do as they look ahead to 2016. With a number of potential free agents and key players entering the final year of their current contracts, the Patriots front office has a lot of work to do to keep their core intact on both sides of the ball. It may be another offseason with difficult decisions to be made regarding some popular players.
Remembering the Patriot: Rosevelt Colvin
Last offseason, the Super Bowl 49 champions let future Hall-of-Fame cornerback Darrelle Revis, fan favorite and defensive captain Vince Wilfork, valuable mid-season acquisitions linebackers Jonathan Casillas and Akeem Ayers, and cornerbacks Brandon Browner, Kyle Arrington, and Alfonzo Dennard all walk out of Foxborough. However, instead of the defense falling apart, it actually improved in 2015 despite injuries to key players throughout the season.
Running back LeGarrette Blount and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks headline the free agents in New England. This offseason the Patriots have veteran linebacker Jerod Mayo, offensive tackle Marcus Cannon, and wide receivers Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell with high cap numbers that exceed their projected 2016 contribution.
However, it is not the free agents that are the biggest question marks in New England. It is how they set-up next offseason that may be the main concern: Their valuable core of young defensive players such as Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Malcolm Butler, and Jabaal Sheard are all entering the last year of their current contract with the Patriots.
Going forward this offseason, here is a look at each group going forward with what the Patriots need to do to get back to the Super Bowl next season. Read on to see what the New England Patriots need to do about their current free agents, their overpaid veterans, and their potential future free agents:
Next: CURRENT FREE AGENTS
CURRENT FREE AGENTS:
The Patriots have two key free agents: defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and running back LeGarrette Blount headlining their offseason. In addition to these starters, key role players such as safety/special teams aces Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner, defensive tackle Sealver Siliga, and offensive tackle LaAdrian Waddle. Finally, injured veterans such as cornerback Tarell Brown, linebacker Dane Fletcher, fullback James Develin, and guard Ryan Wendell are free agents this offseason
Hicks is a talented, young, and explosive defensive tackle. New England stole him from New Orleans in a trade for backup tight end Michael Hoomanawanui earlier in the season. While Hicks did little in his time in New Orleans, he was fantastic in New England showing elite athleticism to go with his massive size. He was able to contribute against the run and provide an inside pass rush.
Hicks may have played his way out of New England: with his strong performance at a position with few players of his talent another team is likely to pay him much more than the Patriots have budgeted for him. Look for him to get a multi-year deal at twice what New England offers.
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Blount had an up-and-down season before landing on injured reserve. Blount seemed to lack the explosiveness he had shown in previous years and unless he takes a bargain-basement deal, he will not get a lot of money from New England. The Patriots consider their running backs interchangeable but Blount may not get much interest on the open market. He should return at a veteran’s minimum contract.
New England will likely only pay for one special teamer out of Wilson and Ebner. Wilson has the ability to contribute on defense more than Ebner, but rookie Jordan Richards took his playing time this season. By the end of the season Wilson was a DNP-CD and that likely indicates his time in New England is over. Look for Ebner to return with a reasonable and cap-friendly deal and Wilson to leave.
Young defensive tackle Sealver Siliga showed a lot of promise in 2013 after being signed from the Seattle Seahawks’ practice squad. However, injuries and the emergence of young defensive tackles Malcom Brown, Dominique Easley, and the surprising strong play of veteran Alan Branch have cut into his playing time. Siliga is an elite run-stopper and is a restricted free agent if the Patriots make a qualifying offer. With Hicks likely gone, although he saw little playing time he could return for short money next year.
Patriots 2016 Free Agency Yes/No: LB Dane Fletcher
Offensive tackle LaAdrian Waddle is another restricted free agent who is difficult to predict if he will receive an offer from New England. He barely played before an injuries shut him down. He did not have any suitors before the Patriots signed him and he could return to push Marcus Cannon for the swing tackle role in training camp.
Veterans Tarell Brown, Dane Fletcher, James Develin, and Ryan Wendell all had minimal impact in 2015 and seem unlikely to return in 2016. Of the four, Develin may be the most likely to return if he is fully recovered from his broken leg. He is a restricted free agent and he had a positive impact on the running game as a blocker in his time in New England, contributed on special teams, and is a favorite of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels who loves having a fullback in the offense.
Wendell and Fletcher seem likely to retire this offseason after health issues derailed their season entirely. Wendell may be a depth option, but with the influx of young interior linemen on the roster it seems unlikely that Wendell would be asked to return. Fletcher was a longshot to make the roster to begin with and will probably not return. Brown is an intriguing option as he would provide quality depth as a slot cornerback if he is healthy enough to play in 2016. However, he would likely not sign anywhere until he is fully healthy and right at the start of training camp.
Next: OVERPAID VETERANS
OVERPAID VETERANS:
New England has stayed at the top of the NFL for a decade and a half by being merciless when it comes to a player not performing to their salary or cap number. Other than Tom Brady–who has seemed to keep any drop-off in play at bay–New England has not hesitated to unload a player when they can be replaced by a better or more inexpensive player. This offseason there are a number of veterans on the roster potentially in danger of being released and replaced.
A look at the salary cap (all salary numbers from OvertheCap.com) for the Patriots in 2016 shows veteran linebacker Jerod Mayo with an audacious $11.4 million cap number. Releasing Mayo saves $7 million against the salary cap but leaves $4.4 million in dead money. Designating him a post-June 1st cut saves an extra million. Mayo lost his starting job in 2014 to Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins and lost playing time this season to Jonathan Freeny. He likely has played his last game for New England.
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Next on the list is veteran wide receiver Danny Amendola. Tasked with replacing the popular Wes Welker, he was instead replaced by Julian Edelman as the top option in the passing game. However, late in 2014 he reclaimed a role in the offense and was a key contributor. He reworked his contract to lower his cap charge in 2015 but has a $6.8 million cap charge in 2016 (higher than Rob Gronkowski).
Amendola proved his value again in 2015 with a solid season when healthy. One advantage New England has with Amendola in renegotiations is that he has limited value outside of Foxborough, MA. He is a great fit in the New England offense, but would not have as much a value to another team. He may not like taking another pay cut, but he should be smart enough to see that staying in New England with Tom Brady as his quarterback is the best place for his talents. He should return on a more team-friendly deal.
Another wide receiver who may not be back in New England is Brandon LaFell. After a strong 2014 season, a foot injury derailed the start of his season. When he returned, he was ineffective and contributed little. He lost playing time to Keshawn Martin (who was signed to a team-friendly extension during the season) and Aaron Dobson remains on the roster at a third of the cost of LaFell. With only $1 million in dead money, LaFell is a likely cap casualty.
When New England signed tight end Scott Chandler after his release from Buffalo last offseason, the thought of him and fellow massive tight end Rob Gronkowski on the field together electrified the fan base. However, in reality Chandler failed to do much other than becoming the primary target when Gronkowski, Edelman and Amendola were all out injured. Even then, his uncharacteristic drops caused him to fall out of favor with Brady and by the playoffs he was a non-factor. With a cap number just over $3 million and only $1 million in dead money, Chandler is another likely salary cap casualty on offense.
Two other veterans potentially on the block are offensive tackle Marcus Cannon and defensive tackle Alan Branch. Based on their playing time, both earned their salary in 2015. However, Branch is carrying a $2.75 million cap hit and his status on the roster may depend on what happens with Akiem Hicks. Ditto for Cannon who played hurt during the second half of the season. Cannon and his $4.75 million salary cap charge could be dependent upon LaAdrian Waddle’s status with the team come training camp.
These veterans are all part of the “middle class” of the Patriots’ roster and often the ones who are in danger of being replaced in free agency and the draft. Mayo and Amendola are almost definitely not going to return in 2016 without reworking their contracts. LaFell and Chandler are both likely to be replaced in free agency or the draft and at best have to go to training camp and win a job. Cannon and Branch should be safe unless New England breaks the bank to keep players at their same position and go with Waddle and Hicks.
Next: 2017 FREE AGENTS
2017 FREE AGENTS:
As much as New England is focused on this current batch of free agents the team has to balance all their moves with 2017 in mind. Pending free agents in 2017 include 2012 first round draft picks linebacker Dont’a Hightower and defensive end Chandler Jones, defensive end Jabaal Sheard, linebacker Jamie Collins, and cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan.
Of the group, Sheard, Jones and Hightower will likely be approached to have their contract situation addressed this offseason. All three have high 2016 salary cap numbers (Sheard=$6.81 million 2016 salary cap charge; Jones=$7.79 million 2016 salary cap charge; and Hightower=$7.75 million 2016 salary cap charge) and the team will likely be looking to address those contracts to extend them and keep the players in New England and lower their 2016 charge. Of the three, the Patriots would be lucky to extend two of them.
Ebony Bird
Chandler Jones looked irreplaceable early in 2015 but his play trailed off at the end of the season as he struggled with turf toe. However, his bizarre interaction with the Foxborough Police Department during the Patriots’ playoffs bye week while seemingly under the influence of synthetic marijuana. Jones’ off-field behavior may have punched his ticket out of town. If that is the case, do the Patriots try to trade him to a team hungry for an edge pass rusher for draft picks?
Sheard was a revelation after being scooped up in free agency. Giving the team the chance to rest Jones and Rob Ninkovich as well as being an inside pass rusher on third down. Sheard had eight sacks and may have replaced Jones as the long-term solution at defensive end. Sheard is the same age and if New England is counting on one of Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom, or Rufus Johnson to emerge in 2016 they may need either Sheard or Jones.
Dont’a Hightower–originally viewed by many analysts and media members as a bust following his rookie season–has emerged as one of the most important players on the defense. Hightower replaced veteran Jerod Mayo as the signal caller on defense. Hightower is an excellent blitzer and is surprisingly effective in zone coverage. His presence as a run defender was noticed particularly this season as the team was run over whenever he was on the sidelines.
In addition, both starting cornerbacks–Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler–are providing high quality play at ridiculously low rates. Ryan has a $825,000 salary cap charge in 2016 and Butler has just a $600,000 salary cap charge. For both of these cornerbacks, the Patriots should be proactive and make every attempt to lock them up to a three or four year extension. Paying a little more now makes it easier to keep the players happy and prevent another team from swooping in with a big offer after next season.
Finally, linebacker Jamie Collins is another potential free agent in 2017. The Patriots may not make a move this year as–like with Butler and Ryan–Collins has a low salary cap charge in 2016 and the team may want to take advantage of it. With a cap charge of just $1.19 million this coming season the Patriots may make the foolish long-term decision to wait rather than extend Collins. The problem with that is if he hits the open market the bidding for the explosive and athletic linebacker could end up in the $10-12 million per season range.
If forced to predict, the likeliest offseason maneuvering by the New England front office based upon their prior history would be to trade Chandler Jones, release Jerod Mayo, rework the contract of Danny Amendola, release Brandon LaFell, let Akiem Hicks and Sealver Siliga walk, keep Alan Branch and Marcus Cannon, extend Dont’a Hightower and Jabaal Sheard, and roll the dice and squeeze a year of high production at discount rates on Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler.