Texans vs. Chiefs: 6 Bold Predictions
As you know, the New England Patriots are currently enjoying a first round bye in the NFL’s postseason. To help pass the time until the Patriots take the field in the Divisional Round, we’re going to take a closer look at the AFC Wild Card games in the next few days. Tomorrow, we will make six bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals game. This morning, we’re breaking down six bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs-Houston Texans showdown.
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The Chiefs are the hottest team in the NFL right now having won 10 straight games dating back to when they were a lowly 1-5. Now that the Carolina Panthers have lost, no team in the NFL has won as many games in a row as the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Texans managed to claw their way to a winning record and win the AFC South. They boast a superstar on both sides of the ball—DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt.
Alright, let’s get on to the bold predictions.
Next: 6. Marcus Peters pick-six
6. Marcus Peters pick-six
Mark these words: Peters will solidify his case for Defensive Rookie of the Year by making a major impact in this game. Playing against elite wideout Hopkins, Peters will step in front of an ill-advised Brian Hoyer throw and take it all the way back for a score.
The pick-six is something that we know Peters is capable of. In his rookie campaign, No. 22 took two of his league-leading (tied with Reggie Nelson) eight interceptions back for touchdowns.
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As noted by our friends over at Arrowhead Addict, Peters was targeted more than any other cornerback in the history of the statistic (targets started being measured in 2009). Peters made quarterbacks pay for focusing on him, batting away 26 pass, the most out of all defensive players.
Peters will further display his stardom on Wild Card weekend by giving his team a defensive touchdown.
Next: 5. Smith will lead KC in rushing yards
5. Alex Smith will lead Chiefs in rushing yards
Only three quarterbacks had more rushing yards than Smith in the 2015 regular season: Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor and Cam Newton. Taking up the rear behind those mobile quarterbacks was Smith and his 498 yards of rushing.
Against the Texans’ respectable 10th-ranked run defense, the Chiefs are going to have some difficulty running the ball. This isn’t to say that Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware won’t have any success against the Houston front, but a few long Smith runs will lead the team in rushing.
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Something along the lines of 75 rushing yards out of Smith will trump the totals of West and Ware individually. Together, West and Ware will reel off more yards on the ground, but Smith will top the stat sheet.
In his 11th NFL season, Smith is one of the more unique players in the NFL. He has re-invented himself in Kansas City, and 2015 saw the Utah product set a career high in passing yards with 3,486.
Next: 4. Ryan Griffin touchdown
4. Ryan Griffin touchdown
A native of Londonderry, New Hampshire, Griffin grew up a Patriots fan, so naturally we have to give him a shout out here on Musket Fire.
The 2012 UConn Offensive Player of the Year gained some steam a little over a month ago, catching touchdown passes in back-to-back games against the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills. Over the course of the season, Griffin caught 20 passes for 251 yards and those two scores.
What makes this a bold prediction is the fact that the Chiefs have a pretty tight pass defense, ranking ninth in the league in passing yards allowed (ninth fewest, that is).
In the opener against Kansas City, Griffin raised eyebrows with a nifty 18-yard reception before tearing his MCL in the fourth quarter. Griffin was then placed injured reserve/designated to return, which held him out of action for the next seven games.
Look for Griffin to continue to make up for that last time by experiencing more success against the Chiefs.
Next: 3. J.J. Watt hat trick of sacks
3. J.J. Watt hat trick of sacks
A week after recording three sacks against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Watt will post another hat trick of quarterback takedowns, but this time it will come on the playoff stage.
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The 2015 NFL sacks champion with 17.5 sacks, Watt is the type of player who can take over a game. Bill Belichick went so far as to compare him to Lawrence Taylor, who he coached during his days on the New York Giants’ coaching staff.
"He’s pretty special. He does a lot of things well and everybody game plans for him every game. He gets a lot of double-teams, the line slides to his side, teams try to run away from him; he does a good job with all of it. They move him around a little bit, so he’s not always in the same place. … He’s done a really good job dealing with a lot of extra attention, similar to some of the things we saw with teams dealing with Taylor in New York. He has that kind of disruptiveness."
The only player in NFL history with multiple 20-sack seasons, Watt will do his best to put the Texans in position to win this game by acquainting himself with Smith on many occasions.
Next: 2. Cecil Shorts III TD pass
2. Cecil Shorts III touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins
Earlier this season against the New York Jets, Shorts tossed a 21-yard touchdown pass. Over the course of his career, the former college quarterback has completed all three of his attempted passes, translating into 53 yards and two touchdowns.
When the Texans are in desperate need of a touchdown—which they will be—they will turn to a tried-and-true tool in the playbook. Think of Julian Edelman’s pass to Danny Amendola in the 2014 playoffs; Josh McDaniels knew he could count on that play producing six points.
Of course, none other than Hopkins will be the beneficiary of this trickery. Perhaps the most underrated wideout in all of football, Hopkins will get open for Shorts downfield, and it will be an easy walk to pay dirt once the ball is in Hopkins’ hands.
Having missed each of the past two games, Shorts is chomping at the bit to get on the field and make a difference in this game. He will get that opportunity with this play, and he will take full advantage.
Next: 1. Chiefs won’t allow more than 14 points
1. Chiefs won’t allow more than 14 points
As you may expect, this game between defensive powerhouses won’t be a shootout by any means. Both defenses will make it very difficult for the offenses to navigate down the field for a touchdown.
For the majority of this game, the Texans’ only points will have stemmed from Griffin’s touchdown catch. The trickery involving Shorts throwing the ball to Hopkins will happen in desperation time in the fourth quarter.
The Chiefs rank third in the league allowing just 17.9 points per game. They won’t let the Texans get above that average on Saturday afternoon
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Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ offense will break through against the Texans’ defense as the game goes on. The early onslaught of Watt sacks will subside, and some timely third down scrambles by Smith will extend drives.
Peters’ pick-six will put this game firmly out of reach in the fourth quarter, relegating Shorts’ touchdown pass pretty much meaningless.
Next: AFC Power Rankings: End of regular season edition
Final score prediction: Chiefs 27, Texans 14