Patriots vs. Jets: 6 Bold Predictions
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It’s simple. All that separates the New England Patriots from essential home field advantage is a plane ride to play the New York Jets. A win in East Rutherford, New Jersey will pretty much end the Patriots’ regular season, rendering the season finale against the Miami Dolphins pointless in terms of playoffs seeding.
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However, it won’t be easy. The Jets are playing at a very high level, good enough to budge the Denver Broncos for the No. 5 spot in this week’s Musket Fire AFC power rankings. Winners of their last four games, the Jets are cruising their way to a Wild Card berth. However, if they falter in the remaining weeks, the Jets will find themselves on the outside looking come playoff time.
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Now that the stage is set, let’s indulge in fantasy world for a while. Here are six bold predictions to enjoy as Santa Claus prepares his sleigh.
Next: 6. Jackson, Iosefa will combine for 100 rush yards
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6. Steven Jackson, Joey Iosefa will combine for 100 rushing yards
Alright, this prediction is contingent on a few things. For one, the Patriots’ injury report, which will be released tomorrow. Also, who the Patriots decide to dress for Week 16. Assuming Danny Amendola will sit out because of his knee injury, the Patriots will likely activate just three wideouts—Brandon LaFell, Keshawn Martin and Leonard Hankerson (more on Hank later).
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That will open up an extra roster spot, and the Patriots will use it to dress both Jackson and Iosefa with Brandon Bolden and James White. Bolden will be used on special teams more than he will actually carry the ball, meaning that Jackson and Iosefa will be the focal points of the Patriots’ rushing attack.
What makes this prediction bold is the fact that the Jets rank fifth in the league with a yards allowed per carry average of just 3.8. Muhammad Wilkerson and company have surrendered only two touchdowns, the fewest amount in football.
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The Patriots know that their best chance to make a run at the Super Bowl is through well-balanced play calling even when the opponent boasts a stout front seven. Jackson and Iosefa will bruise their way through the Jets’ defensive line for 100 yards in this game, taking some pressure off Tom Brady’s shoulder and slowing the pass rush.
Next: 5. Butler will outplay Revis
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5. Malcolm Butler will outplay Darrelle Revis
Both Butler and Revis were given Pro Bowl nods earlier this week, meaning that this AFC East showdown will feature two of the very best cornerbacks in the NFL. Revis is a proven entity, and Butler is becoming increasingly so.
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According to Pro Football Focus, Butler has been the 17th best corner in the league speaking strictly statistically, and Revis the 30th. In addition, Butler has broken up 15 passes compared to Revis’ six, although that should be taken with a grain of salt considering that opposing quarterbacks are so weary of throwing at Revis.
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We don’t know for sure who Butler will match up on, but as you will read about in the next slide, neither Eric Decker or Brandon Marshall will reach the end zone in this game. The Pats will slide a safety over to help Logan Ryan in coverage on one of those guys, and Butler will shut down the other. He’s just that good.
Meanwhile, the Patriots’ surprisingly potent run game will allow Brady to utilize the play-action fake to his advantage. Expect Brady to take a shots his former teammate downfield as the game goes on.
Next: 4. Decker, Marshall won't score
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4. Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall won’t score
As any fantasy football player knows, the Jets boast the best duo of wide receivers. Ryan Fitzpatrick loves the two-headed wide receiving monster that is Decker and Marshall, connecting with the stars a combined 165 times for 2,191 yards and 21 touchdowns.
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But in Week 16, neither Decker nor Marshall will reach the end zone. The last time this happened was over two months ago—the last time these teams met, back in Week 8. The Patriots will identify which wideout presents their defense more issues, and they will allocate Ryan that direction with sufficient safety help. Butler can hold his own against either one.
It will be a frustrating afternoon for two players that are accustomed to reaching pay dirt every week. In the span since Week 8, Decker and Marshall have combined for 13 touchdowns.
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Another big afternoon for Butler and Ryan on the corners will put Patriots fans that much further at ease as we approach playoff time.
Next: 3. Thompkins will score first TD since 2013
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3. Kenbrell Thompkins will score first touchdown since 2013
While Decker and Marshall will struggle to find the end zone, former Patriots and Oakland Raiders wide receiver Thompkins will score for the first time since his rookie season of 2013 with the Pats.
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After a brief stint in Oakland last year, Thompkins returned to New England earlier this season and spent the better part of September on the practice squad. But in typical Patriots-Jets rivalry fashion, the Jets plucked Thompkins from under the Patriots’ nose, and he’s been wearing Gang Green on Sundays ever since.
Thompkins has 13 receptions for 138 yards to his name since joining the Jets. He made the biggest play of his season last week against the Dallas Cowboys, corralling a 43-yard pass from Fitzpatrick in crunch time to set up the winning field goal.
It will feel pretty good for Thompkins to post a touchdown on the team that let him slip away a few months ago.
Next: 2. Hankerson will break out
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2. Leonard Hankerson will break out
Speaking of newly acquired receivers, the Patriots will enjoy a big day out of Hankerson. The Patriots were fortunate to come across Hankerson via waivers last week, stealing him away from the Atlanta Falcons. Before encountering a rash of hamstring issues in mid-November, Hankerson had emerged as a dependable wideout for the Falcons, catching 26 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns.
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Hankerson will make the Falcons wish they hadn’t cut ties with him by accumulating 120 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions in Week 16. Again, the threat of a Jackson/Iosefa ground game will in turn benefit the aerial attack, and there just aren’t that many other wide receivers for Brady to throw to besides Hankerson; the smart money is on Julian Edelman and Amendola both missing this game.
The remaining two weeks of the regular season will act as a try-out for Hankerson, not just for playing time in the playoffs but also next season. Strong performances against the Jets this week and the Dolphins in the season finale will set Hankerson up for a trusted role in the playoffs, and from there he can prove his long-term worth in the Patriots’ offense.
UPDATE: Now that Hankerson has been waived by the Pats, this prediction is no longer valid.
Next: 1. Pats will harass Fitz, pitch 2nd half shutout
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
1. Patriots will harass Ryan Fitzpatrick, pitch second half shut out
That the Jets rank second the league having given up just 20 sacks is what makes this a bold prediction, as the Patriots’ front seven will continue its assault on opposing offensive lines by dragging Fitz down six times. Keep in mind that the Patriots are tied only with the Denver Broncos for most total sacks in the NFL, 47.
Look for the Patriots to build a nice lead by halftime and proceed to turn the Jets away at every turn in the second half. Chandler Jones will respond to his Pro Bowl nod by adding to his fourth-leading sack total (12.5), and Jabaal Sheard will continue his outstanding debut season in New England by reaching Fitzpatrick on multiple occasions.
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The pressure on Fitzpatrick will lead to stalled New York drives and turnovers in the second half, the latter of which will really put this game firmly in the Patriots’ grasp.
So there you have it. Rock-solid coverage of the Jets’ top two receivers and a ferocious pass rush will cause the New York offense to sputter. Meanwhile, the Patriots will establish a potent ground game with Jackson and Iosefa, and Brady will take advantage through the air by employing the services of his new pal in the receiving corps, Hankerson.
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Enjoy the holidays and of course, the game on Sunday.