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In Week 15, the New England Patriots face arguably the softest opponent on their 2015 regular season schedule, the 3-10 Tennessee Titans. Nursing another rash of injuries to a number of key players, the Patriots are fortunate that the Titans don’t present too much of a threat, although as we learned in Week 13 against the Philadelphia Eagles, you can never count out the underdog.
The last time these teams met was the 2012 season opener, and this writer missed the first half because of soccer practice (fun fact). The Patriots won that game 34-13 on the heels of some great play out of rookie defensive players Tavon Wilson (interception), Chandler Jones (strip-sack) and Dont’a Hightower (fumble recovery and touchdown). It was a sign of things to come, as you’ll read about in this article.
The Titans enter Week 15 losers of four of their last five games. They got thoroughly shellacked by the New York Jets last week by a score of 30-8.
Read on for six bold predictions for this encounter between AFC foes.
Next: 6. Jones will get back in the sack race
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6. Chandler Jones will get back in the sack race
Jones flew out of the gate, leading the league with 10.5 sacks by early November. But he has since quieted down a bit. Week 10 was the last time the Syracuse product registered a sack. During the intervening time, Jones has still been applying pressure on the quarterback, but he hasn’t been able to drag the passer down in over a month.
That drought will end in Week 15. The Titans have surrendered 44 sacks, the second-most out of all 32 teams. The lack of a potent rushing attack will allow the Patriots to dial-up blitzes all afternoon long, especially since the Titans will be playing from behind for the majority of the afternoon.
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Another thing working in Jones’ favor is the solid play from fellow defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who notched a pair of sacks last week against the Houston Texans and will command attention from the Tennessee offensive line. Jones will take advantage of any and all one-on-one matchups he encounters.
Jones will put together a hat trick of sacks in Week 15, which will catapult him back into the NFL sack race. Right now, he is tied with Carlos Dunlap for sixth place behind Aaron Donald (11.0), Muhammad Wilkerson (12.0), Ezekiel Ansah (13.5), J.J. Watt (13.5) and Khalil Mack (14.0).
Next: 5. Mariota will be Titans’ leading rusher
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5. Marcus Mariota will be Titans’ leading rusher
First of all, the Patriots are going to suffocate the Titans’ ground game. The New England front seven ranks 10th in overall rush defense, and Antonio Andrews’ 3.7 yards per carry average doesn’t exactly shake the ground with intimidation. The loss of Dominique Easley for the season affects the interior pass rush more than it does the run defense, so there won’t be a drop-off in that arena. Alan Branch, Malcom Brown and Akiem Hicks won’t give Andrews an inch of space up the middle.
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As it turns out, Mariota has been the most effective ball carrier for the Titans. Every time he ditches the thought of throwing the ball and tucks and runs, Mariota picks up 7.4 yards. On the season, the rookie has 252 rushing yards to his name.
Mariota’s scrambling ability will present some problems for the Patriots’ defense, more so than any between-the-tackles runs by Andrews. On plays when the Patriots’ pass rush doesn’t reach Mariota and he has time to survey the field, expect Mariota to not hesitate about scrambling.
Even with Jamie Collins spying from the middle linebacker position, Mariota will experience some success running the ball, frustrating the Patriots on multiple occasions and extending drives. On the day, Mariota will lead the Titans by accumulating 60 rushing yards.
Next: 4. Pats won’t allow more than 1/3 of 3rd down attempts
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4. Patriots won’t allow more than 33 percent of 3rd down conversions
While Mariota’s scrambles will be a sight for the sore eyes of Titans’ fans, they won’t translate into long scoring drives. The Titans carry the fifth-worst third down conversion rate in the league right now, succeeding on just 33.3 percent of their third down attempts. This bold prediction is derived directly from that stat; the Titans will convert just one-third of third downs they are tasked with in this game.
No matter how much Mariota scrambles, he will have to buck up and pass the ball for the Titans to have any shot of keeping this game close. That’s where the Patriots seventh-ranked pass defense factors into this prediction. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Leonard Johnson will blanket Tennessee wideouts Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and Dorial Green-Beckham throughout the afternoon.
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That trio of corners excel at locating the ball. Butler and Ryan both have 14 pass breakups on their stat sheets this season, which is tied for 10th among all defensive players. And Johnson knocked away a pair of passes in his Patriots debut last week, indicating he can pull his weight in the secondary.
Next: 3. LaFell will (finally) explode
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3. Brandon LaFell will catch two touchdowns
It’s been a frustrating season for LaFell since returning from the PUP list in Week 7. He hasn’t been able to shake a case of the dropsies that has plagued him in just about every game. You may remember that LaFell dropped an easy pass on a drag route against the Texans last week, the latest indicator of his shaky hands.
Last year, LaFell had no such problem catching the ball. He snagged 73 passes for 953 yards and seven scores before catching the winning touchdown in the Divisional Round and the opening score in Super Bowl XLIX. Finally, in Week 15, LaFell will return to that form.
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Right now, LaFell’s stat sheet reads 30 receptions and 401 yards—note the lack of a touchdown reception. That will change against the Titans, as LaFell will torch the Titans for over 100 yards and a pair of scores on season-high eight receptions.
What makes this a bold prediction, besides the fact that LaFell has struggled to get in a rhythm all year, is the fact that the Titans rank a respectable ninth in the league against the pass. It won’t be a walk in the park for LaFell in this game, but he will overcome the challenge and put forth an impressive performance.
Next: 2. Orakpo will give the Pats headaches
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2. Brian Orakpo will give Patriots headaches
We talked earlier about how the Titans have given up a gargantuan number of sacks thus far. Well, they’ve done a decent job on the other side of the ball, ranking seventh in the league with 35 sacks. Leading the charge has been former Washington Redskins pass rusher Brian Orakpo and his seven sacks.
In Week 15, Orakpo will be the only Titan to drag Tom Brady down, but that will be alright for the Titans. Like Jones for the Pats, Orakpo will total three sacks, which will put him in double-digits on the season.
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Orakpo has played the Patriots just once, and he didn’t get to Brady in that game. In his second game against New England, he will make his presence fully felt by disguising his approach to Brady and sneaking around other Titans pass rushers to evade his blocker.
Orakpo’s big day will be a thorn in the side of the Patriots’ offense, but it won’t make that much of a difference, as you will read about in the next slide…
Next: 1. Pats won’t allow a TD for 2nd straight week
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1. Patriots won’t allow a touchdown
For the second straight game, the Patriots won’t allow a touchdown. This will be their third touchdown shut out of the season (their first was in Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys).
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Look, the Titans just don’t score that many points. They rank 27th in total scoring, averaging a yawn-inducing 19.5 points per game. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to score double digits three times this season—in Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons, Week 8 against divisional rival Houston and last week against Gang Green.
Just like last week, the Patriots will allow a pair of first half field goals before pitching a second half shutout.
Next: Week 15 AFC Power Rankings: Pats back on top
This will be the Patriots’ sixth consecutive victory over the Titans. The last time the Titans prevailed in this series (2002), Facebook didn’t exist.