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The much-anticipated encounter between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts is fast approaching. In 72 hours, give or take, these AFC powerhouses (well, one of them is a powerhouse, the other wants to be) will face-off at LucasOil Stadium. Here are five bold predictions to help pass the time until kickoff.
5. Malcolm Butler will intercept two passes
All the attention going into the season was on the Patriots’ secondary, which of course suffered a mass exodus of veterans over the offseason. Everyone wanted to see how poorly the Patriots would defend the pass, but they have been quite stout in that realm. The pass defense has surrendered just 230 yards per game, good for 11th in the league.
Butler has been instrumental in keeping the secondary ship afloat. His coverage has been sticky, tackling aggressive and hands active. He has the same number of passes defended (five) as Aqib Talib. Regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Colts, Butler will make a statement in this game on national television.
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Mark these words: Butler will log two interceptions and a few other passes defended as a result of the Colts desperately trying to get T.Y. Hilton going (Hilton has yet to score a touchdown this season). Butler will convert one of those picks into a touchdown the other way for the Pats.
Next: 4. Keshawn Martin will put on a show
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Against the Cowboys, Martin got the nod over Aaron Dobson and made his presence felt, nabbing two passes for 22 yards. Until Brandon LaFell returns from the PUP list, Martin will be the No. 3 wideout behind Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, which is essentially the No. 6 guy in the entire passing attack when you take Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis into account.
Remember, Martin spent three seasons with the Houston Texans before the Pats traded for him earlier this season, so he’s no stranger to playing the Colts. In fact, he’s faced the Colts six times in his career. Although he’s caught just one pass for 13 yards in that action, Martin certainly has knowledge of the Colts’ defense and that should serve him well this week.
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Martin resembles mid-2000s Deion Branch in that he’s a slight, slippery dreadlocked target that knows how to get open for a check-down. His touchdown against the Jaguars was a perfect example of Martin’s ability to freelance and get open for a scrambling Brady.
With the Colts’ defense so preoccupied with the Patriots’ top guns, Martin should have a field day in Week 6. Look for the fourth-year pro to rip off a long catch-and-run touchdown on his way to a total stat line of 7 catches, 110 yards and a score.
Next: 3. Another hat-trick for Jones
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Here’s another product of the 2012 NFL Draft who will do work on Sunday night. Entering Week 6, think of Chandler Jones as a sleeping giant, a bear that shouldn’t be poked. He’s about due for a big performance now that he’s almost a month removed from recording his last sack.
Jones’ last sack completed his hat-trick of quarterback takedowns against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Since, Jabaal Sheard, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower have been making the most noise in the backfield. It’s Jones’ turn to get back in the sack column this week.
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Eight sacks allowed in the eight games isn’t an overwhelming number, but the Colts’ offensive line isn’t exactly the Great Wall of China. Andrew Luck has gotten significantly banged-up for the first time in his career, enough so to put his status in doubt for the third straight week. There are no shortage of vulnerabilities in the Colts’ pass protection for the Patriots’ pass rush to exploit; look for Jones to be the main beneficiary.
Next: 2. Brady won't be sacked
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Speaking of sacks, Brady will be more or less untouched in this game. The Colts have been terrible generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks thus far, racking up just six sacks in five games—only the Miami Dolphins have less than that.
Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offensive line is coming off its worst performance of the season having surrendered five sacks to the Cowboys in just the first half last week. To make matters worse, Nate Solder tore his bicep in that game and has since been placed on injured reserve, ending his season and forcing the Patriots to make some quick adjustments to Brady’s blind side.
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However, there is no reason to ring the alarm. The Pats will either shift Sebastian Vollmer from right tackle to assume Solder’s position, or they will plug-in capable backup Marcus Cannon into the starting left tackle role. A Week 6 matchup against an underwhelming Indy pass rush ought to serve as a good testing ground for what the Patriots will do; either way, they will keep Brady off the LucasOil turf just about every time he steps back to pass.
This won’t be the case next week against the New York Jets, but on Sunday, Brady won’t get sacked.
Next: 1. Punt return TD for Amendola
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Among players who have returned at least 10 punts, Amendola ranks a sly third in return average with 11 yards per attempt. The Patriots are smartly using Amendola as their main punt returner to lessen the wear-and-tear on offensive stalwart Edelman. No. 11 may be a little bit better, but there’s really not that much of a drop-off with Amendola returning punts.
In Week 6, Amendola will further come into his own as the Patriots’ top punt returner by taking a Pat MacAfee boot all the way back for a score. This will happen when the Colts are pegged deep in their own territory with MacAfee launching the ball out of the back of the end zone, which will land in Amendola’s hands at around midfield.
The Colts’ coverage unit will be outkicked by an impressive MacAfee punt, and Amendola will take advantage, slicing his way up toward the end zone.
Amendola continues to impress in both the punt game and the settled offense, proving that his difference-making performance in the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens was not a one-time event. You would be hard-pressed to find a bigger Amendola fan than this writer.