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Tomorrow, the 2015 New England Patriots begin their quest toward an exalted land. Should they repeat as Super Bowl champs this upcoming season, the Bill Belichick-era Patriots will go down as the best team in NFL history, and their quarterback will be immortalized as the best-ever, without question.
However, it will be a tough road to get there. In the months of July and August, though, you can’t think about other teams. You must close ranks and focus on the task at hand: building a championship roster, as the 2015 Patriots are much different already than the 2014 version. The foundation is there, but the siding needs some work and the chimney needs to be cleaned.
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In this article, I’m going to put forth my first predictions as to how the Patriots’ final 53-man roster will look. A few things you should know before reading on:
1. Tom Brady and LeGarrette Blount are both under suspension right now and will miss Week 1, so think of this as a 55-man roster, as those two players would obviously make the team and be suiting up in Week 1 otherwise.
2. The players that I think will make the practice squad after being cut are italicized. Note that each team is allowed to have ten players on their practice squad.
3. This is a pre-training camp prediction, so it’s essentially the culmination of a bunch of talk, talk and more talk that has taken place since the confetti fell in Arizona. With that in mind, take these projections with a grain of salt, as the advent of real, actual, tangible football will almost certainly prove some of these predictions wrong.
OK, here goes.
Next: Quarterbacks
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1. Tom Brady
2. Jimmy Garoppolo
Cut: Matt Flynn
If Brady doesn’t suit-up in Week 1, it will be the first time he won’t start in the Patriots’ opening game since 2001. You can bet that part of what Brady is “ticked” about this summer is that streak coming to an end should the league fail to come to their senses in Deflategate.
Flynn’s future in New England is entirely contingent on the outcome of Brady’s appeal. Should Brady miss any games at the start of the season, Flynn will be a virtual roster lock. On the flip side, if Brady’s suspension is wiped out entirely, then Flynn will probably find himself on the cutting block.
Garoppolo is the quarterback of the future, and the Patriots will want to give him as much experience as possible in this controlled environment (I view two, three or four starts as opposed to an entire season as a controlled environment for Jimmy G to develop in). What a chance it will be for Garoppolo if Brady remains suspended for any period of time.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Flynn beats-out Garoppolo. Remember that the Patriots used a second-round pick last year to snag Garoppolo; they aren’t going to let that high selection go to waste. At this point in his career, Flynn isn’t much more than a fill-in quarterback.
Next: Running backs
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1. LeGarrette Blount
2. Jonas Gray
3. Brandon Bolden
4. James White
5. Travaris Cadet
FB: James Develin
Cut: Tyler Gaffney, Dion Lewis
Unlike the situation with Brady, there are no if’s regarding Blount’s suspension; he will miss the opener against his former team, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
As a result, it’s very likely that Gray will be the top back for the Patriots entering the regular season. Like Blount, he’s a bruising workhorse who usually falls forward for an extra yard while being tackled.
Bolden is a solid ball carrier, but the Patriots like him better as a special teams player. His spot on the team is pretty secure because of his skill set in that arena.
After those guys, it gets a bit more interesting. White essentially red-shirted as a rookie last year, rushing only nine times for 38 yards and catching five passes for 23 yards. He impressed at training camp, but was on the active roster for only three games. Expect his role to broaden this season as he becomes more comfortable in the offense, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.
White’s competition as the Shane Vereen replacement is former New Orleans Saints running back Cadet, who at 6-foot-1 has intriguing height for the role. When he was a rookie with the Saints in 2012, he impressed coaches so much with his receiving ability that he spent time in wide receiver meetings.
Gaffney barely misses making the team, but he’ll have more chances to prove himself as a member of the practice squad going forward. For the veteran Lewis, however, the future looks pretty grim in New England.
Next: Wide receivers
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1. Julian Edelman
2. Brandon LaFell
3. Danny Amendola
4. Brian Tyms
5. Aaron Dobson
Cut: Chris Harper, Brandon Gibson, Josh Boyce, Jonathan Krause
No surprises here. The Patriots have kept their aerial attack pretty much untouched, which is refreshing after enduring an offseason of huge personnel turnover on defense.
Edelman will continue to be the grinder in the Patriots’ receiving corps. He is truly a special player, definitely the most valuable part of the offense after Brady and Gronk. Many people think that he should have been given MVP honors in Super Bowl XLIX, and they have a point.
Unlike at this time last year, both LaFell and Amendola are roster locks. Both of those guys made huge contributions during the postseason, and they both caught touchdown passes in the Super Bowl win.
After those three, the competition heats up. Tyms will beat-out Dobson for the No. 4 spot because of his ability to stretch the field, something that Dobson was brought into New England to do but has been unsuccessful. Dobson will have his hands full just making the roster.
Gibson, Boyce and Krause will find themselves on the way out of New England after training camp. But undrafted rookie Harper will squeak on to the practice squad and make himself available to bring on to the active roster down the road. Harper is one of the more interesting undrafted wide receivers in the 2015 class.
All in all, the wide receiver position is pretty fluid right now in New England. It will be fun to watch how this group fares against the new-look cornerback depth chart in training camp.
Next: Tight ends
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1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Scott Chandler
3. A.J. Derby
Cut: Jake Bequette, Michael Hoomanawanui, Jimmay Mundine
What an offseason it has been for Gronkowski. Recently, he called Roger Goodell “annoying” and won the ESPY for Comeback Athlete of the Year. Last month, he appeared in our kick-off countdown series.
Gronkowski has also gotten a new partner. Chandler is all but guaranteed to take the No. 2 job at tight end after the departures of Fred Davis and Tim Wright over the offseason. At 6-foot-7, Chandler is a tall order in coverage and should add another layer to the Patriots’ red zone offense when he’s on the field with Gronkowski.
It appears that this summer’s training camp will signal the end of Hoomanawanui’s time in New England. Hooman was never a good receiver, but that was just fine when he was a proficient blocker; now that his blocking skills are tailing off, it’s hard to see Hooman making the final roster.
Taking his place as the No. 3 tight end will the rookie Derby. The quarterback-turned-tight end doesn’t offer much in the way of blocking ability, but he flashed excellent receiving skills in college. The knock on Derby is that he’s only played one formal year of tight end, but that could also translate into him being coachable and moldable going forward.
Defensive end-turned-tight end Bequette raised eyebrows during offseason activities, and he will salvage his career as a result of the position change (he wasn’t doing much of anything as a defensive end). He’ll land on the practice squad, and undrafted rookie Mundine will be cut loose.
Next: Offensive line
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
T: Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming
Cut: Kevin Hughes
G: Tre’ Jackson, Shaq Mason, Josh Kline, Ryan Wendell
Cut: Caylin Hauptmann, Jordan Devey, Chris Barker
C: Bryan Stork
Cut: David Andrews
Just like last year, Solder and Vollmer will assume the starting jobs at left and right tackle, respectively. Depth at tackle will look familiar, too. Cannon and Fleming are in good standing to maintain their spots on the 53-man roster behind Solder and Vollmer.
Hughes will get the chop, but the undrafted rookie will end-up on the practice squad.
Guard is an entirely different scenario. Rookies Jackson and Mason will both have outstanding training camps, and will find themselves in the starting lineup in Week 1 as a result. The competition between Mason and Wendell will be one of the more heated training camp battles, and although he won’t beat-out the rookie, Wendell will make the team because of his ability to play center as well as guard.
Unlike Devey and Barker, Hauptmann will make the practice squad. He’s earned Super Bowl rings in each of the last two seasons, so it’s good to keep him around, if only for superstitious reasons.
Because of Wendell’s ability to play center should Stork get injured, Andrews is pretty expendable and won’t even make the practice squad. Although talented, he’s a bit undersized for an NFL center.
Next: Defensive line
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DT: Alan Branch, Sealver Siliga, Malcom Brown, Dominique Easley, Zach Moore
Cut: Chris Jones, Antonio Johnson, Joe Vellano, Vince Taylor
DE: Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Jabaal Sheard, Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom
Cut: Xzavier Dickson, Rufus Johnson
Branch is one of the more overlooked players on the Patriots’ roster. Quite frankly, he was playing better than Vince Wilfork in the playoffs. Similarly, Siliga is better than most people think, and the pair will be at the top of the rotation in Week 1.
Brown and Easley represent the future of the Patriots’ interior defensive line, and the future isn’t very far away. Branch and Siliga are the guys for now, but Brown and Easley could be getting significant minutes by midseason.
Moore has put on some weight this offseason and will earn the final defensive tackle spot, beating-out Jones, Johnson, Vellano and Taylor. There just isn’t much extra room on the interior of the defensive line these days now that Brown is on the team.
Ninkovich, Jones and Sheard give the Patriots a three-headed monster at defensive end. They’re all roster locks.
Bringing up the rear at the defensive end position is a pair of 2015 draft picks, Flowers and Grissom. Both are very intriguing prospects, and both should see a fair number of snaps as rookies, especially if injury-prone Jones misses any time.
Making the practice squad is Dickson, who is the latest Crimson Tide product to join the Patriots. He’ll prove his worth in training camp, edging out Johnson for the practice squad slot.
Next: Linebackers
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1. Dont’a Hightower
2. Jerod Mayo
3. Jamie Collins
4. Darius Fleming
5. Dane Fletcher
Cut: Matthew Wells, D.J. Lynch, James Morris, Jonathan Freeny, Eric Martin, Chris White, Dekoda Watson
The Patriots easily have one of the very best starting linebacking trios in the NFL with Mayo, Hightower and Collins. Out of those three, Mayo is actually the one with the most to prove entering 2015 after playing only six games in each of the past two seasons.
However, it is not yet clear if Mayo or Hightower will be available for Week 1. That ups the stakes a bit heading into training camp because if either one of those guys isn’t good to go, there will be an extra spot on the game-day 53-man roster.
Assuming Mayo and Hightower are healthy, Fleming and Fletcher will round out the depth chart. Fleming is finally getting his chance to play after a pair of ACL injuries wiped out his first few years in the league, and Fletcher is familiar and experienced in the Patriots’ complicated defensive system, so he’s a near-lock to make the roster.
As for the rest of the group, the Patriots will be forced to part ways with several journeyman veteran types. Freeny, Martin and Watson are all relatively new to the team (Martin signed in December, Freeny and Watson this spring), so it probably won’t be too difficult to cut those three players.
White was useful on special teams last year, so the Patriots will probably try to find a way to retain him. But I don’t have White even making the practice squad because of the promising pair of rookies, Wells and Lynch. They will end up on the practice squad in position to be activated during the regular season.
Next: Cornerbacks
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1. Logan Ryan
2. Malcolm Butler
3. Bradley Fletcher
4. Robert McClain
5. Daxton Swanson
Cut: Darryl Roberts, Tarell Brown, Derek Cox, Jimmy Jean, Justin Green
Easily the most anticipated battle of training camp will be the cornerback position. Ten players, only two of whom are returning Patriots, will be fighting it out for five, maybe six spots.
The unquestioned locks to make the roster are Ryan, Butler and Fletcher. Ryan is the longest-tenured corner on the roster and had a solid offseason; Butler is the reason the Patriots won Super Bowl XLIX; Fletcher is an above-average cornerback despite the flak he caught in Philly.
So that leaves two more spots for the 53-man roster.
Considering how willingly the Patriots let Kyle Arrington walk this offseason, they must have a plan for the slot. And it has McClain’s name all over it, as McClain was an excellent slot man in Atlanta but a mediocre outside corner. So as long as McClain plays the slot and just the slot, the Patriots are good there.
The last spot on the roster goes to Swanson, one of the stars of last summer. After picking off passes left and right in training camp, Swanson ended up on the practice squad, which was an accomplishment in itself considering how stacked the Pats’ cornerback group was last season.
Swanson beats out newly signed veterans Brown and Cox because his best days are ahead of him, not behind him.
Roberts hops on to the practice squad and will definitely be promoted to the active roster once the injury bug hits the secondary.
Next: Safeties
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1. Devin McCourty
2. Patrick Chung
3. Jordan Richards
4. Duron Harmon
5. Nate Ebner
Cut: Brandon King, Tavon Wilson
Thankfully, the Pats managed to hang on to McCourty, who’s one of the best safeties in the game. The cornerback position may have been substantially degraded this offseason, but at least the Patriots still have D-Mac on patrol in the back end.
Expect the Patriots to use Chung and Richards interchangeably. Both are big hitters, capable of hounding around the box and making stops in the run game. And both are also decent in coverage as long as they aren’t the last line of defense. But that’s alright, since it’s McCourty’s job to make sure nothing gets behind him.
Harmon is better in coverage than both Chung and Richards, so that makes him a pretty valuable component of the secondary. Remember that it was Harmon who sealed the win in the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens.
Ebner is rarely used in set defense, but he is a dependable special teams player and a roster spot will be reserved for him because of it.
I’m afraid these are Wilson’s last days in New England entirely. The practice squad awaits undrafted rookie King, leaving Wilson between a rock and a hard place.
Next: Special teams
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K: Stephen Gostkowski
P: Ryan Allen
LS: Joe Cardona
ST: Matthew Slater
Let’s start with Gostkowski, who is now the highest-scoring player in Patriots history. Adam Vinatieri may be the most clutch kicker in Patriots history, but Gostkowski is the most accurate and decorated.
This past season, Gostkowski became the first player in NFL history to lead the league in scoring for three consecutive years. If you’re beginning to think about fantasy football right now, you should think about drafting Gost as your kicker.
As for Allen, the Patriots just recently extended him for another three years. He averaged in the top ten for punt yardage this past season, and he is one of the more athletic punters in the NFL. If it’s a bad snap, no worries; Ryan will catch it and get the punt off quickly.
Cardona was recently the subject of our kick-off countdown series, and we have high hopes for him in 2015. His snaps are incredibly fast, which should improve the Patriots’ field position game noticeably. The quicker the ball is in Ryan’s hands, the quicker the coverage team will be able to stymie the return.
Lastly, there’s Slater, a Patriot if there ever was one. Don’t expect him to relinquish his role as the Patriots’ premier special teams talent anytime soon.