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	<title>Musket Fire &#187; Patriots Roster</title>
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		<title>New England Patriots: 2013 NFL Draft Analysis and Day 3 Predictions</title>
		<link>http://musketfire.com/2013/04/27/new-england-patriots-2013-nfl-draft-analysis-and-day-3-predictions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Apr 2013 12:35:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hal Bent</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://musketfire.com/?p=11105</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Two days are completed in the 2013 NFL Draft and the New England Patriots have added four new players after their big trade-down on day one and then two selections in both the second and third rounds. The Patriots second round picks were analyzed here, and the Patriots draft picks in the third round of [...]</p><p><a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/27/new-england-patriots-2013-nfl-draft-analysis-and-day-3-predictions/">New England Patriots: 2013 NFL Draft Analysis and Day 3 Predictions</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire - A New England Patriots Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_11106" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/7300990.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-11106" title="NFL: 2013 NFL Draft" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/7300990-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Apr 26, 2013; New York, NY, USA; NFL former player Kevin Faulk (left) announces the fifty-second overall pick to the New England Patriots with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (right) during the 2013 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p dir="ltr">Two days are completed in the 2013 NFL Draft and the New England Patriots have added four new players after their big trade-down on day one and then two selections in both the second and third rounds. The Patriots second round picks were analyzed <a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/26/2013-nfl-draft-new-england-patriots-second-round-picks/">here</a>, and the Patriots draft picks in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft have been covered exceptionally on the website by the staff of <a href="http://musketfire.com/">MusketFire.com</a>. Now, as the Patriots prepare for the last day of the 2013 NFL Draft with one pick in the 4th round and three 7th round picks, there are still players that may surprise and contribute during the season, like Patriots cornerback and 7th round pick in 2013, Alfonzo Dennard.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">One quirk of Patriots Coach/Uber-Executive Bill Belichick is that when he finds a player that fits his specific profile as a “Belichick-Guy”, he is all in and draft prognosticators opinions be damned.  In 2009 it was tackle Sebastian Vollmer in the second round out of Houston, last year it was safety Tavon Wilson of Illinois in the 2nd round, this year it was Rutgers safety Duron Harmon. Like Wilson, Harmon was a player that the experts on television had pegged as a late third day draft pick.  Whether the player would be available a round or two later is entirely up to debate, but the Patriots did not become the most successful franchise of the free agency/salary cap era of the NFL by picking players based upon public perception.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">Part of Bill Belichick’s quirky draft picking (or arrogance, as it is sometimes referred to) is a product of being in charge of the entire coaching staff and front office in New England for the entire 21st century, as his whims are going to be met.  In this case, Belichick obviously saw something in the Rutgers defensive system that translates to his defense in New England, and jumped to grab two members of that secondary to add to the Patriots. No matter what any scout or front office personnel says about a player, Belichick is going to be on the practice field with his draft picks and is going to get his man.  Remember, Owner Robert Kraft, after the Bill Parcells and Pete Carroll/Bobby Grier fiascos of the 1990s is not going to make waves with Belichick over a second or third round draft pick and overrule him and make him take a player he does not want.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">While safety may not have been considered a huge need for the Patriots&#8211;with veteran free agent Adrian Wilson added this offseason from the Arizona Cardinals, last year’s second round pick Tavon Wilson, and both returning starters: 2010 first round pick and former cornerback Devin McCourty (like Duron Harmon and other 3rd round pick, cornerback Logan Ryan, a Rutgers product) and 2012 free-agent from the San Diego Chargers, Steven Gregory&#8211;this move of drafting safety Duron Harmon could have a domino effect on the roster.  Despite being in the top 1/3 of NFL teams in salary cap space, the Patriots front office appears to be comfortable having a cushion of cap space to add veterans during the season and keep their injury replacement list stocked with players who can help the team, regardless of cost.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Taken in the light of how these picks in terms of salary cap space and roster building, these two third round picks suddenly seem to create a domino effect on the Patriots roster. Safety Steven Gregory struggled at times last season, and is likely fighting for a roster spot at this time. Gregory’s cap number for 2013 is $2.55 million (cap dollars courtesy of our friends at overthecap.com, who do a fantastic job tracking this information) which is a very high number for a player competing at a position with both a 2nd and 3rd round pick taken in the past two drafts. Cutting Gregory would create some dead cap space, of course, but would potentially clear almost $900,000 in cap space this year.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">The Patriots first pick of the 3rd round was a cornerback, Logan Ryan out of Rutgers.  Lack of depth at cornerback&#8211;it could reasonably be argued&#8211;has cost the Patriots two Super Bowl championships the past two seasons. Last year, the Patriots had to trade for Tampa Bay cornerback Aqib Talib to solidify the secondary. When Talib went out of the AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens with an injury, the lack of depth allowed Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco to attack the back-ups and turn a 0-0 tie into a convincing Baltimore win.  In the prior season, the lack of quality cornerbacks was a key against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl as the Patriots defense gave up a number of big completions to wide receivers on the outside as the Giants drove to victory against the Patriots.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">With the position stabilized by re-signing free agent Aqib Talib, re-signing nickel cornerback and free agent Kyle Arrington, and second-year cornerback Alfonzo Dennard not serving jail time for his off-field, pre-draft incident in Nebraska, the Patriots have a solid core at cornerback. However, Talib is on a one-year deal, safety Devin McCourty is not likely to move back to cornerback after playing so well at safety last season, and 2011 2nd round pick Ras-I Dowling has been unable to stay healthy and off injured reserve so far in his short career.  Ryan is a great fit for the Patriots defense and should step in immediately in their sub packages as the fourth cornerback. Dowling is suddenly fighting for his roster spot.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">If the Patriots draft an offensive lineman with their 4th round pick, it could signal the end of guard Dan Connolly’s days in New England.  Connolly had injury issues and struggled at times last year, and with his salary cap number of $3.33 million, Bill Belichick is not going to shed any tears moving on from Connolly at right guard with left guard Logan Mankins already taking a chunk of cap space with his $10 million cap number. With tackle Marcus Cannon now able to move inside (which appears to be a better fit for his skill set), Connolly could see himself competing with Cannon for that starting right guard position as his release would free up $1.16 million in cap space.  Drafting an interior offensive lineman could be a signal that Connolly could be gone even before training camp.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">Also, don’t be surprised to see the Patriots look for defensive end/linebacker again with their 4th round pick.  As much as Bill Belichick loves his Mike Vrabel clone, Rob Ninkovich, he is hardly a premier pass rusher and carries a large cap number. Ninkovich carries a $3 million cap charge this season, and if he is cut he frees up  $2.4 million in cap space for the Patriots. While I find it unlikely that the Patriots would move on from Ninkovich, drafting a young pass rusher and signing a veteran pass-rush specialist like defensive ends John Abraham or Dwight Freeney could still be an option and paying one of these veterans and Ninkovich may not be in the cards.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">Looking ahead, the Patriots may also be altering their strategy on day three of the 2013 NFL Draft, as quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Ryan Nassib of Syracuse are two players expected to have gone in the first two rounds of the draft and are still available at the start of the 4th round. With pre-draft chatter about the Patriots potentially trading back-up quarterback Ryan Mallett for a high 2014 draft pick, Barkley or Nassib could be a target for New England in the 4th round to bring in to back-up star quarterback Tom Brady and get value for a 3rd round pick from two years ago.</p>
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<p dir="ltr">With three 7th round picks, expect the Patriots to be aggressive in looking for those hidden gems that they seem to unearth each year. In 2008, special teams captain Matthew Slater was a solid pick in the 5th round; in 2009, it was wide receiver/special teams/emergency cornerback Julian Edelman taken in the 7th round; the 7th round in 2010 netted defensive tackle Brandon Deaderick , who has carved out a role for himself on the Patriots defense as a sometimes starter next to Vince Wilfork; In 2011, guard/tackle Marcus Cannon who dropped from a 2nd or 3rd round value to the 5th round due to medical concerns is now a top back-up on the offensive line and is expected to compete for the starting right guard position this training camp; and finally, last year’s 7th round pick, cornerback Alfonzo Dennard out of Nebraska fell from a projected 2nd or 3rd round value to the 7th round due to character concerns following his arrest before the draft.  With Dennard starting at cornerback for the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, it served as a telling sign of how valuable these third day draft picks can be, and have been, for the New England Patriots.</p>
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		<title>NFL Draft 2013: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS DRAFT PREVIEW BY REVIEW</title>
		<link>http://musketfire.com/2013/04/24/nfl-draft-2013-new-england-patriots-draft-preview-by-review/</link>
		<comments>http://musketfire.com/2013/04/24/nfl-draft-2013-new-england-patriots-draft-preview-by-review/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Apr 2013 15:06:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hal Bent</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://musketfire.com/?p=10928</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>With the 2013 NFL draft fast approaching, the New England Patriots are in their usual place of confounding the pundits and experts as they attempt to predict what moves Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio, Director of College Scouting Jon Robinson, Football Research Director Ernie Adams and Head Coach/Uber-Executive Bill Belichick make in the upcoming [...]</p><p><a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/24/nfl-draft-2013-new-england-patriots-draft-preview-by-review/">NFL Draft 2013: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS DRAFT PREVIEW BY REVIEW</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire - A New England Patriots Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6692870.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10930" title="NFL: International Series-Fan Rally" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6692870-300x186.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="186" /></a></p>
<p>With the 2013 NFL draft fast approaching, the New England Patriots are in their usual place of confounding the pundits and experts as they attempt to predict what moves Director of Player Personnel Nick Caserio, Director of College Scouting Jon Robinson, Football Research Director Ernie Adams and Head Coach/Uber-Executive Bill Belichick make in the upcoming selection of amateur players leaving college.  Unlike previous years, the Patriots are short-handed in the draft, having wisely traded a 4th round pick (#126 overall) to Tampa Bay for Aqib Talib and their 7th round pick (#226 overall), but unfortunately trading their 5th round pick (#162 overall) to Washington for defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and their 6th round pick (#197 overall) to Cincinnati for wide receiver Chad (Ochocinco) Johnson.</p>
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<p>With picks in the 1st round (#29 overall), 2nd round (#59 overall), 3rd round (#91 overall) and two 7th round picks (#226 and #235 overall), the Patriots have fewer picks than they usually accumulate, as they often have parlayed a single pick into multiple picks. A recent example was when they traded down out of the first round in 2011 sending the 28th pick to the New Orleans Saints for the Saints’ second round pick that year (running back Shane Vereen, #56 overall) and the Saints first round pick in 2012, which was traded up to select defensive end Chandler Jones at #21 overall.  Chandler Jones and Shane Vereen for an over-rated, washing-out quickly running back in Mark Ingram? Bill Belichick is likely not passing up that kind of deal if offered by a general manager desperate to trade into the first round.</p>
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<p>Those kind of deals have infuriated fans in the past, but the example above is simply the latest example of the savvy, long-term deals that the Patriots have had success with in the past.  After a string of terrible drafts (2006 to 2009) decimated the Patriots’ depth, the team has turned things around dramatically on draft day the past three years adding an infusion of young playmakers on both sides of the ball which has allowed for the continued dominance of the AFC.</p>
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<p>In the 2010 draft, the Patriots front-office hit home-runs with cornerback/safety (and defensive captain) Devin McCourty in the first round, tight end Rob Gronkowski in the second round, and tight end Aaron Hernandez in the fourth round.  Add in linebackers Jermaine Cunningham (contributions in spurts at last in 2012) and Brandon Spikes in the second round, and punter Zoltan Mesko in the 5th round, and this draft added five starters and a key reserve. In addition, another key reserve in defensive tackle Brandon Deaderick was added in the seventh round that draft.</p>
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<p>In 2011, the Patriots added starting left tackle Nate Solder in the first round, top two running backs Steven Ridley (3rd round) and top backup and likely third down back Shane Vereen (2nd round) adding three key pieces to their offense.  They continued to add to the offense with back-up offensive guard/tackle Marcus Cannon in the fifth round and back-up quarterback Ryan Mallett in the third round.  Surprisingly, although littered with needs on defense, the Patriots only added cornerback Ras-I Dowling with the first pick of the second round (other than flyers in the sixth and seventh round that never panned out) on the defensive side.  Dowling, of course, after starting the first game of the season after missing most of training camp, has hardly set foot on the field the last two seasons.</p>
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<p>Finally, last season the Patriots continued to add solid depth to the team where the need was greatest, finally addressing the defense on all but one late-round pick. First round picks defensive end Chandler Jones started strong and looked like a future star before injuries derailed him late in the season. After a slow start, the other first round pick Dont’a Hightower stepped in and looked like a potential stalwart at linebacker next to captain Jerod Mayo. Surprise second round pick Tavon Wilson looked, well, like a rookie at safety at times, but flashed the athleticism and playmaking abilities (four interceptions) that made him a top 50 draft pick.  Seventh round pick Alfonzo Dennard was the surprise star of the draft at cornerback, where his size and physical ability to match-up with opposing wide receivers made him a great compliment to Aqib Talib at cornerback outside.</p>
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<p>Third round defensive end Jake Bequette out of Arkansas barely found the field, and was surprisingly taking a redshirt season, which calls into question his ability to make the team in 2013 and contribute opposite Chandler Jones.  As the 90th pick of the draft, Bequette was expected to do more than be a blocking dummy for the offensive line at practice, but instead spent the season watching other rookies contribute. Sixth round pick (another move shocking analysts like Mel Kiper Jr.) special teamer Nate Ebner, after a hiccup in week two allowing a blocked punt versus Arizona, was the special teams ace that coach Bill Belichick wanted all along.  Seventh-round pick and the only offensive player drafted, wide receiver Jeremy Ebert, failed to make the team and ended up bouncing around to the practice squad and failed to contribute on Sundays.</p>
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<p>With only five selections this year, expectations regarding the Patriots lean towards them trading back in the first three rounds of the draft and accumulating multiple draft picks, especially without any picks in the 4th through 6th rounds.  As always, the Patriots remain completely unpredictable in their intentions on draft day.  Is this another season like in the 2012 draft where the defense was the focus? Do they follow the 2011 plan and reload on offense? Is there a first round wide receiver in their plans?</p>
<div id="attachment_10931" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6964734.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10931" title="NFL: AFC Championship Game-Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6964734-300x221.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="221" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Jan 20, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (75) lines up against the Baltimore Ravens in the first quarter of the AFC championship game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p>One thing is certain, the team still has needs it continues to need to fill in the off-season. On defense, the Patriots have a continuing need for a young defensive tackle next to Vince Wilfork.   With Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love, and the already-released Myron Pryor unable to grab the starting defensive tackle spot, there is a potential need in a draft deep in defensive tackles to find a long-term option. With Wilfork in his 30s and a need at every position, the Patriots are going to need a replacement eventually and like when they picked Wilfork in 2004, they have the option of taking the best available player regardless of the position.</p>
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<p>In addition, the Patriots could use a another young defensive end to rush the passer opposite last year’s first-half of the season rookie sensation defensive end Chandler Jones. While Rob Ninkovich has added some value the last two seasons, he is not an elite pass rusher. In addition, Ninkovich is versatile enough to find enough snaps at linebacker so as not to devalue him if he’s not starting at defensive end.  With the Patriots flirting with&#8211;but not signing&#8211;veterans John Abraham and Dwight Freeney this off-season, the team recognizes the need for a pass rush specialist opposite Jones. If a top pash rush defensive end drops in the draft, do not discount the Patriots being aggressive like last year in the draft to get the bookend opposite Chandler Jones and help create mayhem in the opponent’s backfield.</p>
<div id="attachment_10932" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6948252.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10932" title="USA TODAY Sports Images-Archive" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6948252-300x195.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="195" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Jan 13, 2013; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes (55) reacts during the third quarter against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p>A coverage linebacker is a desperate need as the Patriots defense has had problems covering tight ends and running backs with none of their three starters are known for their coverage skills. In addition, linebacker Brandon Spikes is entering the last year of his rookie deal and with his lack of coverage skills, off-field shenanigans, and expected salary increase on the open market, searching for a replacement may be necessary.</p>
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<p>Also necessary is continued help in the secondary which is thin at cornerback and could use a talented coverage cornerback with Aqib Talib on a one year deal. Back-up cornerback Ras-I Dowling has spent the past two seasons on injured reserve and is hardly a lock to make the team, let alone provide quality depth for a position that had multiple problems last season. Moving Devin McCourty back to cornerback could alleviate some concern at cornerback, but potentially create a need to find another safety. With the draft deep at cornerback, this could be a position where the Patriots find the long-term solution that has eluded them (after numerous high draft picks at the position over the years) since cornerback Asante Samuel left as a free agent after 2007.</p>
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<p>The Patriots could look for help at safety again with the position manned by a cornerback (Devin McCourty), a surprise second-round pick last season (Tavon Wilson), a 35-year old free agent (Adrian Wilson), and last year’s inconsistent free agent (Steven Gregory) who carries a high cap number ($2.5 million) which hardly makes him a lock to make the squad and return next season. While likely a position that could be looked at in the later rounds, the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick have never been shy about continuing to draft players at the same position each year until he gets the right players there.</p>
<div id="attachment_10933" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6943338.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10933" title="NFL: AFC Divisional Round-Houston Texans at New England Patriots" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6943338-300x443.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="443" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Jan 13, 2013; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots Ryan Mallett (15) during the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Texans 41-28. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p>On offense, a top-three round pick has been spent on a quarterback twice in the past five years (Ryan Mallett, Kevin O’Connell), so trading back-up quarterback Ryan Mallett to a quarterback needy team on draft day and drafting a replacement is not outside the realm of possibility. Although unlikely, as the Patriots learned in 2008, a quality back-up quarterback is necessary and the team will do what it needs to do get the right insurance policy for quarterback Tom Brady.</p>
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<p>At running back, the Patriots have already loaded up in the 2011 draft taking start running back Steven Ridley in the third round and top back-up/potential third down back Shane Vereen in the second round. Undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden looked like a steal last season until his suspension for performance enhancing drugs derailed his rookie season.  Bolden should be back in a regular back-up role to Ridley to spell him and power over tired defenses. The Patriots signed free agent Leon Washington to be a special teams contributor and possibly depth as a third down back, although his role has been limited these last few years at running  back.  Another rookie free agent is likely to come in and compete for a role, but as they did in 2011, a running back is always a possible pick by the Patriots in the draft.</p>
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<p>On the offensive line, the Patriots seem set with having recently drafted future long-term left tackle Nate Solder and re-signing right tackle Sebastian Vollmer this off-season.  Add in free agent tackle Will Svitek as the top back-up and that frees up tackle Marcus Cannon to move back to guard and compete with guard Dan Connolly for a starting job.  Just when anyone figures they have figured out Bill Belichick in the draft, he throws a wrinkle.  No one had the Patriots taking guard Logan Mankins in the first round of 2005, but they did. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer was a surprise to the draft gurus in the second round of 2009, but has turned into an excellent NFL player.  Having taken tackle Nate Solder in the first round of 2011, the Patriots could very easily surprise again with an early round pick on a protector of Tom Brady.</p>
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<p>Tight end is suddenly a position in flux in New England.  After supplementing their arguably two best draft picks since Tom Brady in 2000 (tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010 in the second and fourth rounds respectively) with free agent Daniel Fells, injury steal Jake Ballard, and their own restricted free agent tight end Michael Hoomanawanui, that depth will be tested again early with both star tight ends coming off surgery and possibly restricted through training camp. Suddenly, picking up an impact young tight end looks like a smart move for the Patriots.</p>
<div id="attachment_10934" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6624028.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10934" title="NFL: Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6624028-300x450.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="450" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Sep 30, 2012; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola (16) runs the ball against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams defeated the Seahawks 19-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p>Wide Receiver is a position that has been in flux this off-season in New England and garnered a lot of attention as long-time starter Wes Welker left in free agency to Denver and was replaced by Danny Amendola.  Wide receiver Julian Edelman re-signed in New England and last season’s starter, Brandon Lloyd, was released.  Former Bills receiver Donald Jones was signed as was former Falcons receiver Michael Jenkins.  After attempting to pry Steelers wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders away with a restricted free agent contract, speculation is high that adding another wide receiver is in the works through the draft.  Of course, with Bill Belichick’s spotty record of drafting wide receivers, there are questions about finding a young receiver who can step in and thrive in the offense. With draft busts Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price all washing out after being high draft picks over the past few years, there may be some reluctance to pull the trigger on another wide receiver early in the draft. Prognosticators seem to think this year the Patriots will pull the trigger and try to find the missing deep threat, and considering how Bill Belichick is impossible to predict on draft day, a trade down out of the first round and selecting a wide receiver in the second round is a distinct possibility.</p>
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<p>The New England Patriots will likely again confound the draft experts who will attempt to predict what wheeling and dealing, moves up and down, trades and selections in the upcoming draft this weekend.  The Patriots need to continue their draft success as they did the past few years, rather than their swings and misses that hurt the team after their Super Bowl runs.  The Patriots have holes to fill and depth to add on both sides of the ball, and will take another step towards filling them and getting back to the Super Bowl come Thursday night.</p>
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		<title>New England Patriots Defense and Free Agency: What&#8217;s Next?</title>
		<link>http://musketfire.com/2013/04/10/new-england-patriots-defense-and-free-agency-whats-next/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Apr 2013 23:39:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hal Bent</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Having looked at the offense previously, Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia&#8217;s squad leaps to the forefront with the initial rush of the NFL free-agency period following the weeks of buildup, rumors and the hope of fans, the situation has settled down as the big names and big money are off the board, and teams which [...]</p><p><a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/10/new-england-patriots-defense-and-free-agency-whats-next/">New England Patriots Defense and Free Agency: What&#8217;s Next?</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire</a> - <a href="http://musketfire.com">Musket Fire - A New England Patriots Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_10782" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6846806.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10782" title="NFL: Houston Texans at New England Patriots" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6846806-300x404.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="404" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Dec 10, 2012; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Texans 42-14. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>Having looked at the offense previously, Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia&#8217;s squad leaps to the forefront with the initial rush of the NFL free-agency period following the weeks of buildup, rumors and the hope of fans, the situation has settled down as the big names and big money are off the board, and teams which are not at or near their cap maximum (or what they’re willing to pay) turn their attention to filling their needs at the upcoming NFL Draft.  As there are still hundreds of players looking for an opportunity at what will likely be a discounted rate, further moves in free agency on defense by the New England Patriots are going to be carefully weighed based upon need, draft options, player value (are they getting a deal or bargain), position depth, quality of the player, quantity on the market, and especially the player’s fit on the team, both on the field and off.  Here is a look at the defensive side of the ball:</p>
<div id="attachment_10783" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6745342.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10783" title="NFL: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6745342-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Nov 11, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots defensive end Chandler Jones (95) before the start of the game against the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Bills 37-31. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p dir="ltr"><strong>DEFENSIVE END:</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">The Patriots have spent high draft picks on young defensive ends Chandler Jones and his back-up Jermaine Cunningham in recent drafts, and have solid defensive end/hybrid outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich currently manning the position.  It is no secret that New England would like to add another pass rushing end to help contribute to getting pressure on the quarterback and take some pressure off the beleaguered secondary.  The Patriots hit a home run adding veterans Mark Anderson and Andre Carter in 2011 as each contributed 10 sacks and then moved on in free agency, with Anderson cashing in with the Buffalo Bills and Carter hampered by a leg injury. Last season, free agent Trevor Scott showed glimpses of pass rush pressure, but failed to earn enough time or have the impact of Carter or Anderson.</p>
<p>This off-season, the fanbase has been excited about the Patriots bringing in veteran defensive ends John Abraham and Dwight Freeney. Although neither pass-rush specialist signed a contract with New England, both are still available. The veteran defensive end market remains flooded, with Chicago Bears end Israel Idonije and his 7.5 sacks last season still unsigned, and former Detroit Lion Kyle Vanden Bosch still available.  Add in defensive end Trevor Scott still on the market, and there are still options available to the Patriots to find and contribute. Someone in this group will likely sign in New England, but as to which defensive end joins the fold it is still unclear.</p>
<p>At this point, Freeney and Abraham have to be at the top of the wish list, with the contract being the big issue as their agents try to meet the veteran’s anticipated asking price.  Each day, the price drops. Teams drafting defensive ends will further shrink the market. The New England Patriots’ front office gains leverage over this group with each passing day, and will likely hold off any signings until a player is willing to meet their price.</p>
<div id="attachment_10784" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6789672.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10784" title="NFL: Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6789672-300x222.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="222" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Nov 25, 2012; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Oakland Raiders defensive tackle Tommy Kelly (93) is taken away by police after fighting with the Cincinnati Bengals tackle Andrew Whitworth (not pictured) during the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals defeated the Raiders 34-10. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p dir="ltr"><strong>DEFENSIVE TACKLE:</strong></p>
<p>The Patriots have made two moves at defensive tackle so far this off-season, adding Canadian Football League player Armond Armstead and former Oakland Raider Tommy Kelly. (For more about the Kelly signing, check out the MusketFire.com articles by Joe Soriano <a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/09/new-england-patriots-analysis-tommy-kelly-a-calculated-gamble/">here</a> and by Cyrus Geller <a href="http://musketfire.com/2013/04/08/new-england-patriots-adding-kelly-is-a-great-move/">here</a>.) With those two moves, the Patriots have some depth next to and behind defensive tackle Vince Wilfork.  With Brandon Deaderick and Kyle Love to go with Kelly and Armstead, it will be hard to fit another player onto the roster at defensive tackle.  One name to keep track of is internal free agent Myron Pryor, who impressed when he was healthy enough to play and could get an invite to camp to try to win a job.</p>
<p>Fans will see names like Vonnie Holliday, Sione Pouha, Amobi Okoye, Ty Warren, Richard Seymour, Shaun Cody, Sedrick Ellis, and Casey Hampton still available and think of how great some of these players were once upon a time. However, based on their departure, Warren and Seymour are unlikely to return even if they came cheap. Cody, Ellis, Pouha, and Okoye are likely not interested in a back-up position at the veteran’s minimum, and Vonnie Holliday’s best days were a long time ago.</p>
<p>This position may add a late-round or undrafted free agent to develop on the practice squad, unless one of the prospects at the position slides to them in the first round like Wilfork did when the Patriots stole him in the late first round of 2004, drafting the best player rather than based on need.  Beyond that, the signing of Kelly seems to indicate the decision based on available free agents has been made by the Patriots front office.</p>
<div id="attachment_10785" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6811306.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10785" title="NFL: Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6811306-300x452.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="452" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Dec 2, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Brandon Siler (52) on the sidelines against the Carolina Panthers in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City won the game 27-21. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
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<p dir="ltr"><strong>LINEBACKERS:</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">Linebacker is another position with a plethora of options, but not many that leap off the page as a fit for the Patriots needs there.  What New England (and every other team in the NFL, for that matter) wants and needs on defense is a linebacker strong enough to be stout in the running game, but agile and instinctive enough to cover running backs and tight ends in the middle of the field.  Of course, those kind of linebackers are near impossible to find outside the first five picks of the draft, if they are even available then. With their solid SEC-core of linebackers in Brandon Spikes, Dont’a Hightower, and captain Jerod Mayo, linebacker is hardly a position of need. Depth is needed, and expect the Patriots to again to add a late-round or undrafted free agent to develop on the practice squad or contribute on special teams while learning the defense.</p>
<p>With available free agents, despite popular players like Brian Urlacher, Bart Scott, James Harrison, Karlos Danby, Rolando McClain, Paris Lenon, Nick Barnett, Daryl Smith and Bradie James on the market, none are likely to be looking to New England to come in on a short, cheap deal and play primarily on special teams.  Bringing a free agent or two to camp as insurance for injury would make sense, and in that case the best fit may be former Kansas City Chief Brandon Siler.  Siler is former Florida Gator like Brandon Spikes, and played for Romeo Crennel in Kansas City giving him some experience in a similar defense. Siler is only 27 with decent size and projects well as a back-up in New England.</p>
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<div id="attachment_10786" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6789814.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10786" title="NFL: Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/6789814-300x338.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="338" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Nov 25, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers cornerback Quentin Jammer (23) celebrates a broken up pass during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p><strong>SECONDARY&#8211;CORNERBACK:</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">As usual in New England, the Patriots struck in free agency retaining their own free agents. The Patriots re-signed both starting cornerback Aqib Talib (who had come over in a mid-season trade from Tampa Bay) on a one-year deal and nickel cornerback Kyle Arrington to a multi-year pact. With the future of Alfonzo Dennard still up in the air pending his legal issues, another cornerback would logically seem to be a potential fit.  Whether Bill Belichick and the Patriots address the need for depth at cornerback through the draft or free agency remains to be seen.</p>
<p>The cornerbacks on the market must be growing more anxious as each day brings the NFL closer to the draft.  With a draft deep in cornerbacks, the free agents are going to be fighting for opportunities.  This is a chance for the Patriots to really add some competition and depth to the backfield.  Buffalo’s Terrence McGee is a serviceable back-up who can contribute on special teams; Bengals cornerback Nate Clements still has a little left in the tank and could come in and compete for a position; former Chiefs and Texans cornerback Stanford Routt is talented and could contribute in the right system; Antoine Winfield is expensive, but would be great competition for Dennard and valuable insurance policy for injury (see cornerback Aqib Talib in the AFC Championship Game leaving with injury and the defense falling apart); Chris Gamble didn’t really retire, did he? If so, maybe a winning team and some cash could talk him into coming back for a play-off caliber team; and former Charger cornerback Quentin Jammer is on the market and, although likely to be a dime corner or safety at age 33, can still provide veteran depth at a position that has hindered the Patriots these last five years.</p>
<div id="attachment_10787" class="wp-caption alignnone" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/5513016.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-10787" title="NFL: Preseason-New York Giants at New England Patriots" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/04/5513016-300x389.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="389" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">September 1, 2011; Foxboro, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick yells to safety Josh Barrett (30) during the second quarter against the New York Giants at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p><strong><strong><br />
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<p dir="ltr"><strong>SECONDARY&#8211;SAFETY:</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">The Patriots safeties have been an issue on this team since future hall of famer Rodney Harrison retired in 2008.  Late last season, the combination of cornerback Devin McCourty and former Charger and free agent signing Steve Gregory played the best (by best, meaning not giving up multiple completions of over 30 yards repeatedly; Patrick Chung set the bar pretty low.). With a second-round pick invested in the intriguing Tavon Wilson and already having signed veteran thumper Adrian Wilson, the Patriots may have a deep group of safeties.  In fact, considering the contract the Patriots gave Wilson, signing him rather than the over-priced former Baltimore Raven Ed Reed looks like a great move already. Including special teams ace and safety prospect Nate Ebner, the Patriots have reached the roster maximum which they will likely carry on the 53 man roster.</p>
<p>However, there is always the possibility that Devin McCourty returns to his natural position of cornerback and the Patriots have a roster spot open.  As always, there are familiar faces available in free agency: Former Patriots safety James Sanders is available, as is eternal practice squad player, Ray Ventrone.  Former Patriot (and injury-riddled) Josh Barrett is unsigned, as is veteran Will Allen who looked like an intriguing pick-up last season before spending the season on injured reserve.</p>
<p>Fans recognize former Jets safeties Kerry Rhodes (last seen in Arizona), Eric Smith, and Jim Leonhard (last seen in Denver), but all have issues that will likely prevent the Patriots from offering an invite to camp, be it age(Rhodes and Leonhard) or ineffectiveness (Considering how much Patriots quarterback Tom Brady liked picking on Eric Smith, maybe bringing him into camp as a morale boost for Brady is a possibility).  Veteran Packers safety Charles Woodson garnered a lot of attention early in free agency, but seems less likely to come to New England with Adrian Wilson already in place. It is doubtful that safeties like veterans Ronde Barber, Quintin Mikell, or Atari Bigby have any interest in coming to compete for a back-up spot and play on special teams.  Expect any depth at safety to come from late training camp cut-downs, if at all.</p>
<p><strong id="internal-source-marker_0.49049297044984996">The Patriots defense has been their Achilles heel since 2008, and as the final years of the Tom Brady era appear to be closing in (even as he holds onto his spot as one of the greatest quarterbacks ever year after year), coach Bill Belichick has no more excuses not load up on defense by any means possible and give this team the chance to get over the hump in the playoffs. The Patriots have already made an impact in free agency on the defensive side of the ball, but the clock is ticking, the opportunity is there, and the Patriots need to stay aggressive in bringing in impact players on defense. </strong></p>
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