Dec 2, 2012; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick talks with defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (75). Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the fifth installment of a multi-part review and grading of the previous drafts of the New England Patriots under coach and executive Bill Belichick.  As the Patriots are beginning their “voluntary” organized team activities along with their other NFL counterparts, this period of preparing for the 2013 season until the kickoff of the official training camp in July is often the only down time in the NFL calendar. Now is an ideal time to look back and re-grade the previous drafts of the New England Patriots while under the leadership of Bill Belichick.

As a note, these draft grades take into account the player’s impact while in New England weighed against the other players who were available in the draft at that time, as well as the the strength of the draft as a whole that season.  Below is the revisit and re-grading of the Bill Belichick draft that played a key role in adding two consecutive Super Bowl championships in New England: the 2004 NFL Draft.

The Patriots ended the 2003 season on a high note, as the team shook off a mind-numbing 31-0 loss to the recently released from New England Lawyer Milloy-led Buffalo Bills in week one to roar through the schedule and finish with 12 consecutive victories and a 14-2 regular season  record one year after missing the playoffs. The season included a memorable victory over Denver on a Monday night game at Mile Hile featuring an intentional safety by the Patriots. The Patriots were pinned down at the one yard line and went three-and-out and intentionally to the safety to pin Denver back. The strategy paid-off as young quarterback Danny Kanell went three-and-out and gave the ball back to the Patriots with 2:15 on the clock.  Tom Brady led the Patriots down the field and completed an 18-yard touchdown pass to young wide receiver David Givens with only 36 seconds remaining in the game.

There was also an epic defensive battle against the resurgent Dallas Cowboys under Bill Parcells on a cold Sunday night in November at Gillette Stadium.  The Cowboy’s defense showed up, limiting the Patriots to 12 points and quarterback Tom Brady to a rare, sub-50% completion rate that night.; however, he did–as was customary in that offense–complete passes to 8 different receivers.  New England’s defense showed up strong and shut out the Cowboy’s offense (one of the defense’s 3 shutouts that season and 2 additional games without allowing a touchdown), as cornerback Ty Law picked off two Quincy Carter passes and fellow cornerback Tyrone Poole added another pick. Dallas’s leading rusher, Troy Hambrick, was held to 41 yards on 16 attempts on the ground.  The Patriots only scored once, a 2 yard plunge by running back Antowain Smith set-up by a 57 yard completion to David Givens on the previous play.

The Patriots headed into the 2004 draft with an additional 1st round pick and 2nd round pick courtesy of their previous trades into this draft year during the 2003 draft.  New England had packaged their second 1st round pick (#19) in 2003 to Baltimore for their 2nd round pick in 2003 and Baltimore’s 1st round pick in 2004. The Patriots also had traded one of their 3rd round picks (#78) to Miami for their 2004 2nd round pick.  That 2nd round pick was traded to Cincinnati for their disgruntled running back Corey Dillon, who allowed New England to replace aging and ineffective running back Antowain Smith with an all-pro talent on the cheap. Cincinnati drafted safety Madieu Williams with the 2nd round pick. Williams was a solid pick-up, but definitely it was a trade that New England would make every time, considering the next running back drafted after that spot was Mewelde Moore (Chris Perry, Kevin Jones, Greg Jones, Julius Jones, and Tatum Bell were drafted ahead of the pick that was traded for Dillon, along with running back Steven Jackson). In addition, the Patriots swung a deal prior to the 2003 season dealing one of their 4th round picks (#104) for nose tackle Ted Washington.

Sep 30, 2012; Orchard Park, NY, USA; New England Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (75) hits Buffalo Bills wide receiver Donald Jones (19) on a pass play and knocks the ball loose during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Patriots beat the Bills 52-28. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

1st Round #21: Vince Wilfork, Defensive Tackle:

The Patriots essentially got their all-pro nose tackle Vince Wilfork from the Baltimore Ravens for Kyle Boller along with their picks that–after more dealing–brought in defensive back Eugene WIlson and defensive lineman Dan Klecko in 2003:  That is the kind of deal that shapes franchises. Currently, Wilfork is manning the center of the Patriots’ defensive line while Baltimore had to invest in another 1st-round draft pick at quarterback after Boller cost them multiple opportunities with their championship defense.  Wilfork stepped in to replace Ted Washington, and has been one the Patriots’ most consistent and productive defensive players.

Should Have Drafted: Buffalo took quarterback J.P. Losman at #22, one pick after Wilfork. Seattle struck out with Marcus Tubbs at #23.  One could argue the Patriots should have taken running back Steven Jackson at #24 overall, but the choice of Wilfork has stood the test of time.

Grade: A

September 27, 2012;Baltimore, MD, USA;Baltimore Ravens defensive end Paul Kruger (99) deflects a pass intended for Cleveland Browns tight end Ben Watson (82) at M

1st Round #32: Ben Watson, Tight End:

Bill Belichick had visions of the two tight-end offense in mind back in 2004 when he grabbed Ben Watson to pair with his other 1st round pick tight end, Daniel Graham, from 2002.  Though this pairing never proved to be as effective as 2010 draft pick tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Watson was a solid, if unspectacular player for six years in New England before moving on to Cleveland.  Watson just never put all the athleticism and size together like Gronkowski, and his penchant for drops caused quarterback Tom Brady to look away from Big Ben at crunch time.

Should Have Drafted: The pick looks worse considering Arizona grabbed linebacker Karlos Dansby one pick later, and then the Giants snagged Boston College guard Chris Snee at #34 overall.  In addition, Jacksonville got linebacker Daryl Smith at #39, and Indianapolis picked up safety Bob Sanders at #44.  Of course, Detroit wasted the #30 pick on running back Kevin Jones that year, and San Francisco picked wide receiver Rashaun Woods one pick before Watson.

Grade: C

2nd Round #63: Marquise Hill, Defensive End:

Marquise Hill only played three seasons in New England. On May 28, 2007, Hill tragically passed away in a jet ski accident. Hill had stars Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, and former teammate Jarvis Green ahead of him on the depth chart, and likely would have been a starter elsewhere in the NFL as he was just starting to get more playing time prior to his untimely passing. It is hard to ascertain Hill’s impact had he not passed away, as the Patriots likely planned to use him as Green, Warren, and Seymour were replaced.

Should Have Drafted: Tennessee picked defensive tackle Randy Starks at #71, San Diego grabbed center Nick Hardwick at #66, and Arizona grabbed defensive tackle Darnell Dockett at #64, who all are very good players in the NFL. Another name jumping out was tight end Chris Cooley, who-before being derailed by injury–had a four year run as a better receiving option than Ben Watson.

Grade: C-

3rd Round #95: Guss Scott, Defensive Back / 4th Round #113: Dexter Reid, Defensive Back:

These two defensive backs get lumped together due to their being the first of a long run of swings and misses by the Patriots in addressing their defensive backfield. Neither Scott nor Reid made any specific impact in New England, and both were out of the NFL by 2007.

Should Have Drafted: Three impact defensive linemen went off the board at #98 (Shaun Phillips-San Diego), #117 (Robert Geathers), and #126 (Jared Allen-Kansas City); in addition, defensive backs Nathan Vasher (#110-Chicago) and Will Allen (#111-Tampa) went off the board in the general area of these two picks.

Grade: D

4th Round #118: Cedric Cobbs, Running Back:

Cobbs contribution in New England was minimal. He played 3 games in 2004, rushed for 50 yards in 22 attempts, and other than a cup of coffee with Denver in 2006, was out of the NFL.

Should Have Drafted: San Diego got a decent running back at #154: Michael Turner.

Grade: D

5th Round #164: P.K. Sam, Wide Receiver:

The Patriots continued their later round washouts in this draft, as P.K. Sam played all of two games on special teams in New England in 2004.

Should Have Drafted: In the Patriots defense, after Michael Turner there were few impact players in this draft. Miami stole guard Rex Hadnot at #174, and Green Bay snagged defensive end Corey Williams, who had two good seasons in him at #179.  At least the Patriots got two games out of Sam, that was two more than Oakland got out of pick #166 (Shawn Johnson-Defensive End), or Houston from pick #170 (Vontez Duff-Defensive Back), or Pittsburgh at #177 (Bo Lacy-Tackle), or finally the Jets at #178 (Marko Cavka-Tackle): All four never played a snap in the regular season.

Grade: C

7th Round #233: Christian Morton, Defensive back:

The Patriots gave up a 6th round pick (#197) to sign restricted free agent defensive end Rodney Bailey away from the Steelers, so they had only this pick which came to them from New Orleans as part of the Tebucky Jones trade in 2003.  There remained slim pickings in the draft, and other than Green Bay hitting (another) late round home run with guard Scott Wells at #251. Beyond Wells, there was little value late in the draft that year.

Should Have Drafted: Besides Wells, maybe Giants running back Derrick Ward (#235), who at least was a decent special teams player and stepped up in 2008 to contribute a 1,000 yard season. Considering he played at Fresno State for FBB (Friend of Bill Belichick) Pat Hill, the Patriots should have had the inside track for drafting Ward.

Grade: C-

1st round pick Vince Wilfork was a great value pick for New England. Getting a stalwart of the defense for ten years from a 1st round pick is a win. For example, Jacksonville wasted the #9 overall pick on wide receiver Reggie Williams.  Tampa never got the production they expected from #15 overall pick Michael Clayton.  Cleveland spent the #6 overall pick on tight end Kellen Winslow Jr, who pieced together two good seasons after missing almost two full season with injuries.   Unfortunately, the rest of the Patriots’ picks came up short that year, which made them part of the trend, no the exception as this draft had numerous top 100 picks who never contributed in the NFL. Unfortunately in New England, these lean drafts began to become a disturbing trend, rather than a one-year aberration.

Overall Grade: C+

Oct 28,2012; London, UNITED KINGDOM; New England Patriots receiver Rob Gronkowski (87) carries the ball on a 32-yard reception in the second quarter in the 2012 NFL International Series game against the St. Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Rams 45-7. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Tight end Rob Gronkowski underwent his fourth surgery on his broken forearm on Monday and based on all of the reports that I have seen, it is expected that he will be fine for the start of the regular season. This is great news for the Patriots. As far as I am concerned, the Patriots will go as far as they want as long as Gronk is healthy. In other words, they go as far as Gronk can healthily take them.

We have seen what has happened to the Patriots in the last two postseasons without a healthy Gronkowski. They first lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl because Gronk had a severely injured ankle, and then last year they got beat down by the Ravens in the AFC Championship game because Gronk was out with a broken forearm.

What Gronkowski brings to the Patriots offense is well documented, he is a super athletic guy that can help in the running game, and obviously in the passing game. His partner in crime Aaron Hernandez is also a very talented player, but they need each other to be 100% effective. That (and they weren’t healthy for the whole year) is why both guys had relative down years in 2012. When Gronk is on the field putting up crazy stats or “Gronking”, Hernandez gets a lot of one on one coverage and that makes the Patriots offense very difficult to cover. With incoming rookie Aaron Dobson and veteran’s Michael Jenkins and Danny Amendola new to the Patriots offense, New England is going to need Gronk more than ever in 2013. Tom Brady no longer has his security blanket Wes Welker, and until he develops a good chemistry with Amendola, I think that Gronk will have to be his new security blanket. That is why it is essential to the Patriots that Gronk is 100% in 2013 for New England. No matter how much their defense improves this year, they will always be leaning on the offense to “run the show” for the team, and they won’t be able to play as well on offense as they have been without Gronkowski on the field and producing. With all of this being said, it appears that Gronk will be ready to go for the opening of the season and because of this, I really don’t see much (other than injuries) that could stop the Patriots from getting to the Super Bowl.

It is obvious that the Patriots were talented enough last year to win during the regular season without Gronk and they probably would be able to do that this year as well. However it is a completely different story in the postseason. Gronkowski is probably the biggest mismatch in the NFL when healthy, and in the playoffs the Patriots really need him to help against the top defenses in the league. No matter how the matchups shake out in the playoffs, in order to get back to the Super Bowl you always have to go through one of the top defenses in the league. That is just how the NFL works. Last year it was the Ravens and the year before that it was the Giants and the Ravens. As we know, the Pats struggled mightily against these teams without a healthy Gronkowski. That is why I am very happy that Gronk’s surgery went well, because he should be ready to play great on the field, and because of that the Patriots should do well in 2013.

If Gronk were to have the back surgery, the recovery time would coincide with the recovery time for his forearm. This is a good sign, but his strength and conditioning will likely take a hit while he recovers from both. After he is fully recovered, he may not be in a position to play immediately. He may need to sit out some extra time to regain his strength and endurance so he can be effective again. The slated recovery time is 10 weeks, which would allow him to be ready for week 1, but is that wise?

We have already seen Gronkowski rushed back from his arm recovery for the playoffs, only to re-break his arm and set him back further. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to tell you that Gronkowski is way more valuable to the Patriots healthy and on the field, than constantly in a state of recovery. His presence is even more valuable this year with the new cast of receivers that Tom Brady will be throwing to. Regardless of his chemistry with them, Gronkowski needs to be his go-to guy. More importantly, Gronkowski needs to be his go-to guy in the playoffs. The past two seasons Gronk hasn’t been there in the playoffs when Brady needed him. With a healthy Gronk on the field, one could argue that the Patriots win Super Bowl XLVI and possibly beat the Ravens to advance to the Super Bowl last year.

With all that said, when should Gronk play? The Patriots already have a stud at TE with Aaron Hernandez and this season Jake Ballard will be able to play after returning from torn knee ligaments. He proved he can play at a high level with the Giants when they beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, so he can be a more effective fill-in for Gronk than Dan Fells or Michel Hoomanawanui. Both of those tight ends will also be returning this season, so the Patriots have four talented TE’s to take Gronkowski’s place in the event that he needs extra recovery time. I would rather see Gronkowski take a couple extra weeks off in order to regain his strength and ensure that he is completely healthy. Despite the Dolphins beefing up their team, the Patriots are still the kings of the AFC East and should be readily able to keep their crown without Gronkowski. He is really needed at the end of the season when the games are more important, particularly the playoffs.

The Patriots open the season playing the Bills, Jets, and Buccaneers. These are three very winnable games without Gronkowski, so he should sit these games and return for week 4 when the Patriots travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. That game will be a huge test for the Patriots and having him on the field will go a long way. What do you guys think?