Trying to predict what Bill Belichick will do in the draft is like trying to argue that the Yankees are a better franchise than the Red Sox. You just can’t do it. But we all like to pretend like we know what Belichick will do, especially when the draft is a mere two days away.
About a month ago, Nick Underhill wrote a piece detailing Belichick’s draft day tendencies as the head coach in Foxboro. Underhill found out that Belichick has actually traded up more than he has traded down.
That’s right. The common thought among NFL fans is that Belichick will trade down whenever possible, and rarely trade up. But that is not the case. Belichick is a smart guy, and if he feels like trading up gives the Pats the best opportunity of finding good value, he will pull the trigger.
So with that in mind, what will the evil genius do this year? In my opinion, this 2014 draft is so deep, that Belichick may get an offer to move down that will be too good to pass up. There are talented prospects everywhere you look, all the way down to the fourth and fifth round.
Take the wide receiver position as an example. CBS Sports has 17 receivers in the top 100 prospects right now. That is absolutely nuts. Sure, adding a receiver isn’t the number one need for the Patriots, but with that kind of depth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them select a wideout at some point over the three day draft period.
Now, I wouldn’t put it past Belichick to trade up come draft day. In fact, since I wrote this piece, Belichick will probably set some kind of record for the amount of times trading up in one draft. But I just don’t see how trading up will benefit the Pats in a huge way this year. Other than maybe Jadeveon Clowney, there isn’t a prospect that has a good chance of dominating the NFL for years to come. Could other guys do it? Of course. But none of them are worth trading up in the first round. This is why I think Belichick and company will either stick with their original picks, or look to trade down for more value.